Original title: From Epidemic Prevention Station to CDC

　　Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, Beijing CDC at all levels, as a front-line professional force, has played an important role in fighting the epidemic. From the initial health and epidemic prevention station to today’s CDC, how did Beijing’s health and epidemic prevention work step into a new era of public health from a blank sheet of paper?

　　Health and epidemic prevention stations were set up in 1950s.

　　Before the founding of New China, Beijing’s health and epidemic prevention work was almost blank. Plague, cholera and smallpox all occurred and prevailed, and people’s lives and health were greatly endangered.

　　After the founding of New China, Beijing attached great importance to health and epidemic prevention, quickly eliminated smallpox and relapsing fever and prevented the occurrence of plague and cholera. Infectious diseases such as diphtheria, whooping cough, measles and polio, which seriously endanger children’s health and life, have also been basically controlled. By the mid-1950s, the focus of health and epidemic prevention in the city had shifted to the prevention of measles, dysentery and Japanese encephalitis.

　　In October 1953, Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station was established and became the municipal epidemic prevention and health supervision department.

　　What was the Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station like at that time? On July 11th, 1955, Futang Zhu, a deputy to the National People’s Congress and a pediatrician, published an article entitled "I visited suburban rural areas and health and epidemic prevention work" in the 3rd edition of this newspaper, which wrote that there are three new buildings in the north of the Municipal Infectious Disease Hospital, one is the office of the Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station, the other is the disinfection station, and the other is the passing room and disinfection treatment room. Designed by Soviet experts, it is specially designed to disinfect patients and clothes with infectious germs. It is divided into two parts, men and women, each with a registration room, a barber shop, a dressing room and a bathing room. The two clothes are sent to a central disinfection room from both sides. The high-pressure sterilizer in the disinfection room is as big as a locomotive. If the cotton-padded clothes are disinfected, 150 sets of cotton-padded clothes can be disinfected in about 30 minutes with 10 pounds of steam pressure.

　　At that time, the function of Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station was to inspect and supervise industrial hygiene, environmental hygiene, food hygiene and school hygiene on the one hand, and to investigate and deal with epidemics on the other hand, to organize large-scale vaccination work, and to organize the masses to carry out patriotic health campaigns and give technical guidance.

　　Later, the city’s health and epidemic prevention institutions continued to improve and perfect, and district-level health and epidemic prevention stations were also established in various districts. However, due to the limited conditions, in 1950s, epidemic prevention stations in the whole city only carried out irregular supervision and inspection on the hygiene of fur and leather industry and high-temperature workshops and toxic workplaces in related industries with poor working conditions, as well as some food industries, cold drink manufacturing and selling industries, schools and other units, so the depth and breadth of hygiene and epidemic prevention need to be improved. (Beijing Daily, 1st edition, February 28, 1984, "Strengthening Health and Epidemic Prevention in this Municipality and Actively Building a Civilized and Healthy Capital")

　　2. Organize patriotic health campaign

　　Among the many tasks organized by health and epidemic prevention stations, the patriotic health campaign centered on "eliminating four pests" in the 1950s and 1960s is probably the most memorable one for the citizens.

　　According to the newspaper’s 2nd edition of September 6th, 1956, "City and District Epidemic Prevention Stations are Vigorously Killing Mosquitoes and Flies", the city health and epidemic prevention station dispatched a large number of electric spray trucks and motorcycle spray trucks to kill mosquitoes and flies, among which the electric spray trucks only sprayed an area of more than 450,000 square meters in 45 days. Disinfectors in various districts also assisted relevant departments to use drugs to kill flies in garbage dumps and their surrounding households, and shared drugs to spray more than 1,000 houses and more than 30,000 square meters of garbage dumps. In rotten vegetable piles, residents’ outdoor toilets and septic tanks, the epidemic prevention station also uses drugs to kill maggots.

　　In order to provide scientific basis for the city’s fly control and disease prevention work, the staff of Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station conducted many investigations and studies on fly control. They set up fly index survey points, which are distributed in various parts of the city: some are located in institutions; Some are located next to public canteens; Some are located in the corner of the food processing workshop. Every month and every ten days, the staff should put the fly cages on each investigation point on time, and at the same time bring the caught flies back to the laboratory, identify them by species, register and analyze them respectively, understand the types, living habits and breeding laws of flies, and test the effect of pesticides. (Beijing Daily, 2nd edition, July 6, 1962, Investigation on Fly Killing in Municipal Health and Epidemic Prevention Station)

　　City and district health and epidemic prevention stations also organized the masses to carry out rodent control activities. The staff of the health and epidemic prevention station investigated the distribution density and reproduction law of rats, summed up some methods and measures to eliminate rats, and promoted them to institutions, factories, schools and so on. Later, this work became a regular health work in the city. (Beijing Daily, 2nd edition, November 1, 1963, Achievements in Rodent Control in this Municipality)

　　3 prevention and treatment of chronic diseases has gradually become the "highlight"

　　With the development of the times, the focus of health and epidemic prevention in Beijing has also changed, paying more attention to how to improve people’s health.

　　In June, 2000, based on the Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station and other units, the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention was formally established, and its functions were expanded to prevent infectious diseases, chronic non-communicable diseases, common diseases of students, emergency response to public health emergencies, national health education, public health protection and many other contents. Since then, district-level CDC has also been established.

　　The prevention and treatment of chronic diseases has gradually become the "highlight" of disease control. According to the 16th edition of "Beware of the rejuvenation of patients with chronic diseases" published by this newspaper on December 26th, 2001, since 1970s, the disease spectrum of Beijing residents has changed significantly, infectious diseases have been basically controlled, and chronic diseases such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and malignant tumors have become the main diseases threatening Beijing people’s health. In order to control the rising trend of chronic diseases, after 2000, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention established chronic disease demonstration sites in eight urban areas of the city, and selected representative residential communities to investigate five chronic diseases and behavioral risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes, tumor, coronary heart disease and stroke.

　　In 2002, the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention randomly selected 1,240 families from the whole city for nutritional and health status survey, and learned about the nutritional status of residents in this city and the incidence of chronic diseases related to it through daily food and nutrient intake, eating habits and other information. (Beijing Daily, 5th edition, August 19, 2002, Fine Calculation of Oil, Salt, Sauce and Vinegar)

　　Under the scientific guidance of the disease control department, Beijing people’s health concept has become fashionable, and investing in health has become a fashion. Beijing National Physical Fitness Testing Center receives many citizens who come to test their physical fitness every day, spend some money to find out their physical fitness, and let experts tailor a fitness plan for themselves by the way. In the past, vaccination was a "patent" for children. After entering the new century, adults and the elderly have joined the army of injections, and preventing diseases before they happen has also become an investment. (Beijing Daily, 1st edition, October 7, 2002, "Beijingers live ten years longer than one year")

　　4. Improvement of epidemic reporting system in SARS

　　In 2003, the sudden SARS epidemic ravaged Beijing. As the main force of prevention and control, the disease control department bravely shouldered the heavy burden.

　　On April 10, 2003, the first edition of "Extraordinary Warrior" recorded the scene of that year: it was late at night, and the Beijing CDC was still brightly lit. The 60 members of the SARS emergency team are still busy. Several hotlines on the desk kept ringing, citizens kept asking about SARS symptoms and prevention methods, and eight trained business backbones took pains to answer various questions. At the end of the day, everyone has to answer dozens or even hundreds of phone calls, and they are often too tired to even eat. In the health and epidemic prevention emergency command center, the monitoring reports of all districts and counties are collected at any time on the huge screen, and the epidemiological investigation team members summarize the information of the day. If a suspected SARS patient is admitted to the respiratory clinic of a hospital, the epidemic prevention personnel will arrive at the scene half an hour later, and track his upper-level source of infection and close contacts to cut off the source of infection.

　　In April of that year, a strict epidemic reporting system was established in Beijing. Every hospital has a statistical reporter. The urban CDC should accurately report the epidemic situation to the municipal CDC within 6 hours, and the suburbs should complete this work within 12 hours. (Beijing Daily, 3rd edition, April 26, 2003, "The city has formed a perfect SARS epidemic reporting and prevention and control system")

　　After SARS, great progress has been made in the construction of epidemic reporting system and system in Beijing. Chen Liquan, then director of the Dongcheng District CDC, said that the hospital could report the epidemic situation directly to the Ministry of Health through the computer network, and at the same time report it to the local grassroots CDC by telephone and fax for epidemiological investigation and handling. The double reporting system makes the information construction of disease control more perfect. (Beijing Daily, 2nd edition, October 13, 2003, "Prevention must be based on SARS")

　　5. Establish a four-level early warning of infectious diseases.

　　Due to the continuous discovery of new pathogens and related infectious diseases around the world, the situation of health and disease prevention is grim. Beijing is also striving to build a perfect public health safety system and continuously improve its ability to respond to public health emergencies.

　　In November 2004, the Emergency Plan for Public Health Emergencies in Beijing was issued, which consists of the emergency plans for public health emergencies such as influenza, avian influenza, plague, cholera and hepatitis, and food poisoning and acute occupational poisoning. The epidemic situation of infectious diseases is divided into four levels according to different intensities, with particularly serious infectious diseases as the first level, major infectious diseases as the second level and major infectious diseases as the third level. The general epidemic situation of infectious diseases is Grade IV, and the corresponding designated hospitals are enabled according to the early warning level, and the corresponding number of beds are enabled according to the intensity of the epidemic, and the clinically diagnosed and suspected patients are treated respectively. (Beijing Daily, 1st edition, November 5, 2004, "Outbreaks will be divided into four levels of early warning")

　　In 2005, Haidian took the lead in launching a public health safety broadcasting system in China, which provided early warning of infectious diseases, food poisoning, occupational poisoning and drinking water pollution incidents according to various public health events over the years. (Beijing Daily, 6th edition, February 28th, 2005, "Public Health Safety Broadcasting System Launched in Haidian")

　　Drawing lessons from SARS, Beijing’s public health construction has been carried out step by step. Since then, Beijing has taken the lead in the prevention and control of avian influenza, influenza, norovirus and hand, foot and mouth disease. Today’s Beijing has entered a new era of public health.

　　(Text: Jia Xiaoyan’s historical data: Jingbao Group graphic database, Xinhua News Agency)

Full text10074Words, reading takes abouttwentyminute

Macro Team of Wencaixin Research Institute

Wu Chaoming and Hu Wenyan　

Core view　

How will the domestic interest rate, especially the yield of ten-year treasury bonds, be interpreted in the future? The market has little disagreement on the medium and long-term trend. Most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, and show an overall downward trend. However, the market has great differences and different judgments on the short-term trend in the next few quarters.

1. China’s interest rate analysis framework: fundamental factors such as economic growth and inflation dominate the direction of interest rate change, while other factors such as financial supervision policies and exchange rates affect the fluctuation range of interest rates.One isIn the medium and long term, the yield trend of domestic ten-year government bonds is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle, indicating that the trend of domestic interest rates is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.The second isAfter the international financial crisis in 2008, the goal of financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates. In the cycle of stable economic growth, especially economic recovery, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead to a significant increase in market interest rates.The third isInterest rates will also be affected by exchange rates, supply and demand of funds and other factors. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will restrict the domestic monetary easing space, and the demand for funds exceeding supply will also raise the level of interest rate centers.

Second, the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters: it is expected that the fluctuation will bottom out first, and then the probability of recovery will be too high.

First, from the perspective of interest rate analysis framework, the yield of 10-year government bonds may bottom out first and then rise.First,The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which determines that it is difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term, or to bottom out first, but after the economy is confirmed to stabilize and rise, interest rates will tend to rise;Secondly,Affected by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig grain price, high oil price, recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates;Third,The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on domestic interest rates.

Second, from a quantitative point of view, the current yield of ten-year government bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and it is only a matter of time before it gradually converges upward in the future.

Third, based on the historical experience in 2012 and 2019, the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term. However, if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economic confirmation stabilizes, the interest rate will enter the recovery channel.In July this year, the domestic economy recovered weakly, which led the central bank to cut interest rates unexpectedly in August. If the real estate recovery continues to fall short of expectations, the possibility of cutting interest rates again will not be ruled out. However, with the steady growth policy taking effect, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future is increasing, and the trend of interest rate bottoming out in the next few quarters is more clear.

Risk warning:Real estate recovery continued to fall short of expectations, and the overseas economy went down more than expected.

main body

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market interest rate has experienced two obvious downturns: First, in April-May, 2022, in the face of the severe impact on the economy brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the epidemic, the central bank greatly increased the liquidity supply to boost the demand for entity financing and support the economic recovery as soon as possible. The domestic short-term market interest rate DR007 dropped from about 2.1% in the first quarter to around 1.5%, which was about 60BP lower than the policy interest rate in the same period (see Figure 1). Second, from July to August, due to the unexpected economic recovery, especially the overall weakening of financial and economic data in July, and the prominent problem of insufficient effective social demand, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in mid-August, pushing the interest rate of DR007 down from about 1.9% at the end of June to the historical low of 1.3% during the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and the yield of 10-year government bonds also broke through the low point in the same period to further open up the downside (see Figure 1-2).

Looking forward to the future, the market has little difference on the medium and long-term trend, and most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, showing an overall downward trend, but the market has great differences and different judgments on the trend in the next few quarters. Therefore, based on the interest rate analysis framework and quantitative analysis, this paper studies the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters.

First, China’s interest rate analysis framework

(1) The interest rate level is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.

According to the People’s Bank Law, the ultimate goal of China’s monetary policy is to "maintain the stability of the currency and promote economic growth". As a big country economy, China’s monetary policy is dominated by me. Interest rate is one of the key tools to achieve the goal of monetary policy, so the formulation of domestic interest rate policy and the trend of interest rate level mainly depend on economic fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices in the medium and long term.

First, the trend of domestic interest rate is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle.Inventory cycle describes the periodic change of enterprise inventory for about 40 months, which can be used to help judge the strength of economic growth because of its strong correlation with nominal economic growth (see Figure 3). Since 2003, China has experienced a total of five complete inventory cycles, and is currently in the sixth cycle of the inventory cycle (see Figure 4). Generally speaking, the upward cycle of inventory often corresponds to the recovery stage of interest rate, that is, the bear market in the bond market, and vice versa. However, it is worth noting that the peak and trough of interest rate and inventory cycle are only similar at the time point, but not completely consistent. In most cases, interest rate is slightly ahead of the latter to peak or bottom. On the one hand, this stems from the fact that the growth rate of inventory lags behind the economic growth slightly (see Figure 3), and on the other hand, it is also related to the interest rate being affected by other factors such as investors’ expectations. In addition, there is no fixed proportional relationship between interest rate fluctuation range and inventory fluctuation range, and they only have the same trend, indicating that economic growth is not the only factor determining interest rate.

Second, there is a strong correlation between interest rate trend and inflation gap in history, but the correlation tends to weaken in recent years.In order to stabilize inflation and its expectation, China will put forward this year’s CPI growth target in the government work report every year. If the price deviates far from the above target value, monetary policy will take effective measures to promote the price to return to the target center. From the practical experience, before 2013, the yield of domestic ten-year government bonds and the inflation gap (CPI growth rate-government target growth rate) basically changed synchronously, and the correlation between them was very strong (see Figure 5). However, after 2013, due to the obvious reduction of domestic CPI fluctuation, the inflation gap basically fluctuated around 0, the monetary policy was weakened by price constraints, and the correlation between the inflation gap and the yield of 10-year government bonds was also obviously weakened. If we consider the relationship between the comprehensive inflation index weighted by CPI and PPI and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the correlation between the two has also weakened after 2013, and the peaks and valleys of the two are close at the time point but no longer completely consistent (see Figure 6). On the whole, when the inflationary pressure is high, the interest rate is more constrained by the price, which is more consistent with the price trend, and vice versa, which shows that inflation is one of the important factors in determining the interest rate.

(B) After the international financial crisis in 2008, financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates.

After the financial crisis in 2008, the major central banks in the world learned the lesson that monetary policy only focused on inflation targets and paid insufficient attention to financial stability, and began to focus on improving the financial regulatory framework and strengthening macro-prudential management, and their attention to financial stability targets increased significantly. In terms of macro-prudential management framework construction, the Bank of China is at the forefront of global central banks, and further accelerates the improvement of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy after the crisis. Among them, the former focuses on maintaining economic and price stability, while the latter focuses on maintaining financial stability. Under the background of resolving financial risks and maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio, financial regulatory policies have also become an important factor affecting the level of domestic interest rates. During the period of steady economic growth, especially during the economic recovery cycle, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead the market interest rate to rise. For example, in 2013-2014 and 2016-2018, two rounds of domestic interest rates went up, and the tightening of financial supervision was one of the main reasons.

First, the above two rounds of interest rate hikes are in the rising stage of inventory cycle and nominal GDP growth rate (see Figure 4), indicating that economic stabilization and recovery is an important prerequisite for interest rate hikes.However, if we look at the constant price GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate indicators, they have basically changed little during the period (see Figure 7), reflecting that there is no overheating risk in the economy, and fundamental factors are not enough to support a sharp rise in interest rates. The central bank’s working paper "Natural Interest Rate in China" has also reached a similar conclusion, that is, except for a slight decline around 2015, the domestic output gap in 2012-2019 is close to zero (see Figure 8), indicating that the economic operation is generally stable.

Second, the rapid rise of interest rates in mid-2013 and the end of 2016 is closely related to the shift of monetary policy to deleveraging to prevent risks and the tightening of regulatory policies.During the above two rounds of interest rate hikes, the growth rate of leverage ratio in the financial sector declined (see Figure 9). Among them, in 2013, in order to strictly control banks’ off-balance-sheet loans (such as trust loans) to promote the disorderly expansion of non-standard assets (see Figure 10), and to prevent the rapid growth of interbank business from idling funds within the financial system and increasing the risk of maturity mismatch, the regulatory authorities issued a series of regulatory measures, such as the Notice on Regulating the Investment Operation of Commercial Banks’ wealth management business (referred to as Circular No.8), which forced financial institutions to strengthen liquidity management and added a "default door" for a bank. In 2016, as the economy entered a new round of upward channel, and there were many problems of leverage and capital idling in the financial market, the primary goal of domestic monetary policy gradually shifted from steady growth to risk prevention. At the same time, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China took preventing and resolving major risks as the first of the three tough battles. In October 2016, the Politburo meeting clearly put forward "focusing on curbing asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks". In November 2017, new regulations on asset management were introduced, which started the domestic financial deleveraging campaign, and the leverage ratio growth rate of financial institutions increased from 20 in early 2016.

Looking back at the above two rounds of interest rate upward cycles, it is inseparable from the tightening of financial supervision policies. The deep-seated reason behind it is that when the economy is under great downward pressure, the central bank will often implement a loose policy of "releasing water to raise fish" to stimulate the economic recovery. At that time, the market liquidity is abundant but the return of the real economy is low, and the phenomenon of "asset shortage" is prominent, resulting in excess funds speculating on various virtual assets, chasing high-term spread assets, amplifying financial leverage and pushing up financial risks. However, when the economy starts to stabilize and rebound, the regulatory authorities will take the initiative to tighten monetary policy, resolve the risks bred in the early stage and reduce the policy sequelae, thus pushing interest rates upward. Therefore, the interest rate recovery is often in the period after the growth rate of social financing has recovered for a period of time or at the stage of bottoming out, that is, after the economy has stabilized and recovered, the convergence of liquidity at this time will also lead to the bottoming out of credit spreads (see Figure 11).

(3) The interest rate level will also be affected by other factors such as exchange rate, capital supply and demand.

First, monetary policy should not only achieve internal balance, but also take into account external balance, especially with the continuous improvement of China’s capital market opening level, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, so exchange rate factors have certain constraints on the central bank’s interest rate policy, although this constraint tends to weaken with the increase of exchange rate flexibility.According to "impossible trinity" theory, monetary policy must give up some independence when allowing capital to flow freely and keeping the exchange rate relatively stable. For example, when the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index strengthens, attracting international capital to return; If other economies do not follow the tightening of monetary policy, they will often face greater capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation pressure, thus aggravating the domestic capital market turmoil.

From the domestic practical experience, from 1989 to 2019, the Federal Reserve started four interest rate hike cycles, in which the domestic interest rate increased in different degrees three times, and only in 1999-2000 did China keep the interest rate unchanged (see Figure 12).The main reason why the interest rate did not move was that the GDP growth rate dropped from 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 1989 to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and the sharp economic downturn did not support monetary tightening. In 2022, the Federal Reserve started the interest rate hike cycle again, and the domestic monetary policy was "I-oriented", which lowered interest rates, partly due to the increase in exchange rate flexibility, which improved the flexibility and operational space of monetary policy, but this did not mean that domestic monetary policy was not affected and constrained by the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Second, the supply and demand of funds will have an impact on the short-term fluctuation of interest rates.If the money supply and social financing scale represent the macro-level social capital supply and demand respectively, then the difference between the growth rate of social financing and money supply indicates the relative change of capital demand and supply. The bigger the difference, the more the demand for funds exceeds the supply, the more obvious the tension of funds in the market, and the more the interest rate of funds will rise, and vice versa. Empirical data does confirm this point. Since 2015, the difference (social financing growth rate -M2 growth rate) and the yield of 10-year government bonds have fluctuated obviously and have a high correlation (see Figure 13).

An interesting phenomenon is that since 2011, the 10-year bond yield has a high linkage with social financing, but the correlation with the change of money supply has obviously decreased (see Figure 14).Theoretically speaking, the growth rate of M2 should be inversely related to the interest rate, but this relationship is obviously weakened after 2011. The main reasons behind this are as follows: On the one hand, with the acceleration of domestic interest rate marketization, coupled with the rapid development of financial innovation and disintermediation, China’s monetary control mode is gradually shifting from monetary quantity control to price control, which leads to the weakening of the correlation between money supply and economic growth and interest rate level; On the other hand, the money supply M2 reflects more how strong the countercyclical policy is than the growth of the real economy. Different from M2, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is consistent with the growth rate of social financing, which reflects that the domestic interest rate depends more on the financing demand of the real economy, and the financing demand is behind the growth of the real economy, especially the strong and weak changes of domestic demand. In the final analysis, economic growth is still the decisive force leading the trend of medium and long-term interest rates.

(4) Summary

To sum up, the domestic interest rate level is determined by the multiple objectives of monetary policy, but the core factors that affect our interest rate level at present are still economic growth and inflation, and with the obvious slowdown of domestic price fluctuations in recent years, the former plays a leading role in determining the direction of interest rate changes. In addition, factors such as financial stability and exchange rate can not dominate the direction of interest rate changes, but will strengthen the trend of interest rate changes and increase its fluctuation range. When the economy is in the recovery channel, financial risk prevention and other goals will push interest rates up; When the economy is in a downward cycle, financial risk prevention, exchange rate stability and other goals need to make way for economic growth, and interest rates generally fluctuate and fall.

Second, the short-term trend of domestic interest rates: first, the fluctuation bottomed out, and then the probability of recovery was too high.

(A) Based on the interest rate analysis framework: the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may bottom out first and then rise.

1. The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term.

Whether the PPI price index has dropped first or the current replenishment time has reached the highest level in history, it is a high probability event for China to enter a new round of destocking cycle in the future (see Figure 15). What needs to be pointed out here is that since 2021, the growth rate of domestic inventory has been greatly deviated from the growth rate of GDP and the trend of interest rate level, that is, while enterprises replenish inventory, the economic growth rate has dropped rapidly and sharply, and the interest rate has also dropped (see Figure 16). The reason is that the macro-and micro-policies have been tightened simultaneously in 2021, which has led to the rapid and substantial reduction of the leverage ratio of entities (see Figure 17). Coupled with the epidemic disturbance this year, demand has shrunk rapidly and inventory has been passively improved. Therefore, to judge the future trend of economy and interest rate, we need to comprehensively consider many factors such as inventory cycle, epidemic situation and counter-cyclical policy, and we can’t just observe one indicator of inventory cycle.

It is expected that the probability of weak economic fundamentals in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply.First, with the marginal alleviation of the short-term impact of the epidemic, the recovery of people flow and logistics, and the slight stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of social integration, the leading indicator of the economy (see Figure 18-19), the marginal recovery of the domestic economic growth rate in the second half of the year can be expected from the "deep pit" of 0.4% (constant price) in the second quarter. Second, the inventory cycle has entered a new round of decline channel, which will inevitably restrict the economic recovery. Third, although the growth rate of domestic social integration has stabilized and rebounded, the structure mainly relies on the financial front, and the credit growth rate is still falling, reflecting that the problem of insufficient effective social demand is severe and the economic recovery should not be overestimated. Looking at the extended cycle, China’s credit growth has been difficult in recent years, mainly due to the weakening trend of infrastructure and real estate, which used to have a large credit demand (see Figure 20), while the demand for other loans with relatively small volume is difficult to make up for the credit demand gap, which leads to the decline or normalization of China’s credit growth rate during the shift of new and old kinetic energy, which also means that the mode of stimulating economic growth by financial expansion is unsustainable, and it is necessary to cultivate new kinetic energy and new social purchasing power, create new credit demand, and smoothly spend the shift of growth rate.

2. Short-term inflationary pressure rises, which supports the upward trend of interest rates.

According to historical experience, when the domestic prices of pigs, oil and grain rise in resonance, the inflationary pressure tends to be greater (continuously exceeding the inflation target of 3%). On the contrary, if the prices of pigs and oil hedge each other and the food price is moderate, the inflation risk is relatively small and the time for the price to continue to rise is relatively short (see Figure 21).

Looking into the future, influenced by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig food prices, the high oil prices, the recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around 3% or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates.

First, a new round of "pig cycle" has been launched, and this round of pig price increase is second only to the African swine fever period in 2019.Historical experience shows that each round of "pig cycle" in China lasts about four years, and the first 1.5-2 years are the upward period of prices. In April this year, the domestic pork price went down to the stage low point, which is about four years from the starting point of the last cycle. Since May, the pig price has continued to rise, indicating that a new round of "pig cycle" has started, and it may usher in an upward period of more than one year in the future. Judging from the increase of this round of pig cycle, due to the weak demand recovery and the slow speed of supply, it is expected that the increase of pig price in this round will hardly exceed that of African swine fever in 2019. However, at the end of July, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities has risen to 29 yuan/kg, and extreme weather may have a certain negative impact on the supply of pigs. In the future, the pig price will probably continue to rise moderately (see Figure 22), and the increase is expected to exceed several rounds of pig cycles that began in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Second, the rise of international food prices is superimposed on extreme weather, and the risk of food price fluctuation in China may increase in the future.Benefiting from the low dependence of China’s three staple foods on foreign countries and sufficient domestic stocks, the increase in international food prices in the first half of the year has relatively little impact on China, which mainly drives domestic CPI through cost channels. However, two factors may increase the risk of food price fluctuation in China in the future. First, the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on global food prices, such as reduced grain production, rising grain production costs and slowing food trade, has yet to be revealed. In addition, the rise of food protectionism (the number of countries that issued food export bans in 2022 was as high as 24, second only to the 28 in 2008 food crisis), it is hard to say that the warning of future global food crisis has been lifted. Second, the impact of extreme weather on the global and China’s food prices may have increased: on the one hand, according to the statistics of the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July this year was the second hottest July in the world since statistics were available in 1880, and China also ushered in the hottest summer since statistics were available in 1961. It is expected that the negative impact of high temperature and dry weather on food production will gradually emerge; On the other hand, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that there is a 60% probability that La Nina will continue from December 2022 to February 2023, which means that a rare "triple" La Nina climate event may occur this year, and the world will face the test of cold winter, or further push up the global and Chinese food prices (see Figure 23-24).

Third, international oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high position, and China’s imported inflationary pressure still exists.For example, geopolitical conflicts and global energy transformation will restrict the improvement of this round of crude oil supply, and the cold winter weather is expected to partially hedge the impact of the decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic downturn. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a high position in a high probability during the year.

Fourth, abundant domestic liquidity and improved consumer demand will also support the rise of CPI center. On the one hand,Economic recovery after the epidemic is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate and increasing residents’ income, thus boosting residents’ consumption ability and willingness. In addition, after the epidemic is controlled, the consumption scene has improved, and residents have accumulated rich savings in the early stage (see Figure 25), which has accumulated energy for future consumption demand recovery.On the other hand,Since the second half of last year, the domestic money supply has been loose, and the growth rate of M2 has increased from a low of 8.2% in August last year to 12% in July this year, which is much higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, setting a new high since the outbreak, and will also support the rise of CPI center.

3. The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation of wide currency into wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on interest rates.

First, the spread between China and the United States may remain upside down for a long time, which will increase the upward pressure on interest rates through exchange rate channels.Affected by high inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates four times during the year, raising the target interest rate of the federal funds from 0-0.25% to 2.25-2.5% (see Figure 26), and the Fed is still on the way to continue raising interest rates during the year. During the same period, the pressure of steady growth of domestic economy was great, and interest rates were cut twice during the year. The dislocation of financial cycles between China and the United States deepened, and the yields of 10-year government bonds of the two countries continued to be upside down. This trend will continue in the short term. According to historical experience, the falling or even upside-down spread between China and the United States will increase the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow (see Figure 27). In order to take into account the external balance, domestic monetary policy easing will be restrained to some extent.

Second, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, it will also restrict the downside of interest rates.Since the beginning of this year, domestic real estate-related credit has shrunk sharply, and the proportion of new real estate loans to all new credit has turned negative in the second quarter (see Figure 28), indicating that the repayment scale of residents and housing enterprises has exceeded the amount of real estate loans lent by banks. Affected by this, the transmission of domestic wide money to wide credit has been impeded. In July, the difference between the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2 hit a new low since statistics were available (see Figure 14). However, in the future, the positive factors have increased significantly. For example, after the 5-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 15BP again on August 22, the domestic personal housing loan interest rate may have been lower than the 2016 low, only slightly higher than that after the 2008 financial crisis. Generally speaking, the mortgage interest rate is about 6 months ahead of the growth rate of real estate loans. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic mortgage interest rate has continued to fall rapidly, which indicates that the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up in the future (see Figure 29). With the gradual recovery of real estate credit from a very low position and the continuous efforts of "one city, one policy", the transformation from wide currency to wide credit is expected to accelerate, which will restrict the downward space of interest rates in the future.

To sum up, the economic recovery is weak and the regulatory policies are difficult to tighten, but the inflationary pressure is increasing, the spread between China and the United States continues to be upside down, and the wide currency is transformed into wide credit. It is expected that the interest rate will have limited room for further decline in the current position. In the next few quarters, the domestic 10-year national debt income will be the first to oscillate and bottom out, and the probability of rising later is too high.

(B) Based on quantitative analysis: the current yield of 10-year treasury bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and the high probability gradually converges upward.

In the medium and long term, the market interest rate should be equivalent to the desirable interest rate level that can not only ensure the economic operation at the potential output level, but also achieve the goals of price stability, full employment and financial stability. In this paper, the general Taylor rule method is used to measure the desirable interest rate level in China, and it is compared with the market interest rate to see whether there is overshoot at present, and thus to judge the future market interest rate trend.

According to Taylor rule, the interest rate level is mainly determined by inflation gap and output gap. With the diversification of the central bank’s monetary policy objectives and the development of financial markets, we add exchange rate and social financing scale factors to the basic Taylor rule to fit and measure the current acceptable level of China’s 10-year national debt yield. Taylor’s rule regression equation shows that the current yield level of ten-year treasury bonds is obviously lower than the desired interest rate level (see Figure 30), which means that the interest rate level is lower than the desired interest rate level that matches the current economic growth, prices, exchange rate and liquidity. According to past experience, when the interest rate gap (market interest rate-desirable interest rate) falls below -0.4%, the probability of market interest rate converging upward to desirable interest rate is greater, and it is only a matter of time before the market interest rate rises in the future.

(3) Based on historical experience: If there is no unexpected impact, the interest rate will fall first and then rise after the interest rate cut boots land.

No matter from the economic fundamentals or quantitative point of view, we all think that the interest rate will converge marginally in the future with a high probability, but the market is still skeptical about whether the interest rate will really go up. There is an important reason behind it, that is, the economic data in July was significantly less than expected, and after the loan suspension risk incident, the central bank unexpectedly lowered the policy interest rates of MLF and OMO on August 15, which rekindled the market’s expectation of starting a new round of interest rate reduction cycle in China.

Historical experience does show that after the central bank cuts interest rates continuously, the market interest rate will tend to decline in the short term, but it also shows that as long as the credit data improves and the economy gradually stabilizes after the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year government bonds will open the recovery channel after the interest rate cut boots land. For example, in 2012 and 2019, there were unexpected interest rate cuts, but after that, interest rates rebounded with the improvement of the economy, rather than falling. Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether to continue to cut interest rates after cutting interest rates, depending on the marginal changes in economic fundamentals.

1. In 2012, interest rates were cut twice in a row: the yield of ten-year government bonds only dropped by 14BP, and then the journey of recovery began.

After the second quarter of 2011, the domestic economy continued to slow down. However, because the CPI has been above 3%, the central bank is cautious in cutting interest rates, mainly by lowering the RRR to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (see Figure 31-32). Until mid-2012, with the CPI growth rate falling below 3%, coupled with the superimposed influence of the economic downturn, repeated wide credit (see Figure 33) and the further intensification of the European debt crisis caused by bank runs in overseas Greece, the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July respectively (see Figure 32). After two interest rate cuts, the cumulative maximum downward rate of 10-year treasury bond yield is about 14BP. However, as the credit growth rate announced after the interest rate cut returned to the upward trend, the economy gradually confirmed its stabilization, and the yield of 10-year government bonds began to turn upside down, starting an upward cycle (see Figure 32-33).

2. Unexpected interest rate cut in 2019: The yield of ten-year government bonds fell by about 9BP, and the downside was reopened after the outbreak of the epidemic.

After the second half of 2018, the domestic economy continued to slow down, and the CPI growth rate was less than 3% in the same period (see Figure 34). In order to prevent financial risks, the central bank was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and also chose to lower the RRR first to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (4 RRR cuts in 2018 and 5 RRR cuts in 2019), which promoted the growth rate of domestic social integration and credit to continue to rise to March 2019. However, due to the escalation of trade friction and the occurrence of risk events such as Baoshang Bank, the domestic credit contraction pressure increased significantly in 2019, and the credit growth rate dropped again after the first quarter of the same year. At the same time, the PMI index was below 50% of threshold for six consecutive months, and the downward pressure on the economy increased (see Figure 35-36). Therefore, although the CPI growth rate broke through 3% from September to October in 2019 (the soaring pork price increased the structural inflationary pressure), after the PMI fell to 49.3% in October, hitting an eight-month low, the central bank cut the MLF interest rate by 5BP in early November (see Figure 35). After the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped by about 9BP, and then gradually stabilized. At the end of December, the COVID-19 outbreak broke out in China, which further reopened the downward space of interest rates (see Figure 35).

To sum up, during the economic downturn in 2012 and 2019, the central bank was cautious about cutting interest rates at first. However, due to some unexpected risk events, continuous credit contraction and sustained downward pressure on the economy, the central bank still took interest rate cuts at the end of the economic downturn, and the timing of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Both rounds of interest rate cuts pushed interest rates down slightly in the short term, but in 2012, as the economy stabilized, interest rates quickly turned upward, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 further opened up the downside of interest rates.

Similar to 2012 and 2019, in 2022, the central bank was also cautious about comprehensively lowering the policy interest rate. For example, after the interest rate was cut by 10BP in January 2022, despite the unexpected rebound of domestic epidemic in the second quarter, the central bank did not immediately reduce the policy interest rate. It was not until July that the economy turned downward again on the way to recovery and there were twists and turns in credit easing that the central bank cut interest rates again beyond expectations (see Figure 37-38). According to the experience of two rounds of interest rate cuts that exceeded expectations in 2012 and 2019, if the domestic economy gradually stabilizes in the short term, the transformation from wide currency to wide credit accelerates, and the yield of 10-year government bonds drops slightly, the recovery channel will be gradually started; If there is an unexpected risk event, such as the real estate recovery continues to be less than expected, the risk spreads to other fields or even systemic risks, it is also expected that the central bank will cut interest rates quickly, continuously and substantially, and the interest rate center is expected to drop significantly again until the economy stabilizes, but at present, this probability is too small.

(4) Summary

Based on the analysis of the above three perspectives, it is estimated that the yield of domestic 10-year government bonds will probably bottom out first and then rise in the next few quarters:1）The weak recovery of domestic economy does not support a sharp rise in interest rates in the short term, and even does not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates again. However, with the increasing pressure to stabilize prices and exchange rates, the constraints on monetary easing are also obvious. In addition, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future will increase. It is only a question of whether the recovery speed or slope can be as expected, and the trend of interest rate recovery is relatively clear.2）At present, the domestic market interest rate has been much lower than the desired interest rate level, and it is only a matter of time before it converges upward;3）Historical experience shows that the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term, but if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economy is confirmed to stabilize, the interest rate will open a recovery channel.

In addition, the current real interest rate level in China is not high, and monetary policy is constrained by insufficient demand. The effect of monetary easing on stimulating economic growth is limited, but it may bring more sequelae. Unless it encounters extreme unexpected shocks, it is not necessary to continue to loosen the currency substantially. First, China’s real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) has been continuously lower than the actual economic growth rate. Governor Yi Gang of the Central Bank pointed out in the article "Interest Rate System and Interest Rate Marketization Reform in China" that the real interest rate R after inflation adjustment should be equal to the real economic growth rate G. However, most of the time, the real interest rate in China is lower than the actual economic growth rate, which tends to distort the allocation of financial resources and bring about inflation, asset price bubbles, idle funds and other problems. At present, the real interest rate of RMB loans in China has been at a low level below 1.5% for five consecutive quarters (see Figure 39), and the growth rate has been lower than the real GDP except for the second quarter of this year. Second, the core contradiction facing China’s economy at present is insufficient effective demand. Monetary easing is constrained by banks’ reluctance to borrow and enterprises’ reluctance to borrow, and it is difficult for monetary policy to promote the "soft rope". Therefore, fiscal policy needs more efforts. Monetary policy should cooperate with fiscal policy to provide suitable liquidity and financing environment, and blindly easing will not help accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the current economic structure.

　 　This article was first published on WeChat WeChat official account: Seeing the Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

　　Author: He Junming and Sun Huayu (both are special researchers of Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought Research Center, the supreme leader of Fujian Province, and professors of Marxism College of Xiamen University of Technology).

　　When presiding over the sixth collective study in the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "we should pay attention to drawing theoretical innovation wisdom from the creation of the masses". If a society wants to be prosperous and full of vigor and vitality, it must constantly carry out theoretical innovation. People’s nature is the essential attribute of Marxism. The Party’s theory comes from the people, for the people and for the benefit of the people. The people’s creative practice is an inexhaustible source of theoretical innovation. The important exposition of the Supreme Leader General Secretary adheres to the Marxist historical materialism and the standpoint of people first, which clarifies the source of the party’s theoretical innovation and provides a fundamental follow-up for constantly writing a new chapter in the modernization of Marxism in China.

　　The people are the creators of history.

　　Marx and Engels systematically thought about the relationship between man and history, holding that the primary premise of human history is "the existence of living individuals", and pointed out that history is the history of living people in material form, not the history of spirit or will. Social existence determines social consciousness and mode of production determines social development, which is the basic viewpoint of Marxist historical materialism. Material production activities are the basic conditions of all history, and all social life is practical in essence. Marx clearly pointed out in the Manuscript of Economics and Philosophy in 1844 that history "is nothing more than a process in which people are born through human labor, and it is a process in which nature generates for people". Man creates history through his own practical activities, and social history is composed of his practical activities, and man is the real subject of social history.

　　The people are the creators of material wealth and spiritual wealth. Marxist historical materialism holds that people’s practical activities not only create an objective material world, but also create a rich spiritual world. The people are the creators of material wealth. Material production is the premise of all history. Without certain material production, there can be no human history. The material materials needed for human survival and development are produced by the broad masses of the people. As the main body of material production activities, the people constantly accumulate production experience in practice, innovate and create production technologies, and promote the development of productive forces and the growth of social material wealth. The people are also creators of spiritual wealth. Social existence determines social consciousness, which is a reflection of social existence. The production practice of the people provides a material basis for the creation of spiritual wealth, and all spiritual wealth is rooted in the practical activities of the people.

　　General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "The people are the driving force to create history, and we communist party people should never forget this most basic truth of historical materialism." Productivity is the fundamental driving force for the development of human society. The contradictory movement between productivity and production relations promotes the continuous development of human society, and the people are the most active factors for the transformation of productivity. The people’s subjective practical activities constitute the foundation of social life, and all social changes are based on this foundation. While creating material wealth and spiritual wealth, the people also create and transform social relations of production. Any social change cannot be separated from the people’s active participation and the people’s enthusiasm and initiative. Marx and Engels pointed out that "historical activities are the activities of the masses, and with the deepening of historical activities, it will certainly expand the ranks of the masses." Although heroes also play an important role in historical development and change, social change ultimately depends on the will, wishes and interests of the broad masses of the people. From the perspective of historical materialism, only the people are the real creators of history and the fundamental driving force for social change and social reform and development.

　　2. People’s creative practice is an inexhaustible source of theoretical innovation.

　　Great times need great theories. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Resolution on the Great Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party’s Centennial Struggle takes "persisting in theoretical innovation" as one of the historical experiences of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s Centennial Struggle, and points out: "As long as we are brave enough to combine new practices and constantly promote theoretical innovation and be good at guiding new practices with new theories, we will certainly be able to show Marxism a stronger and more convincing truth force on the land of China." The reason why our party can make great achievements in various historical periods lies in mastering Marxist scientific theory and constantly promoting theoretical innovation in combination with new realities. We should constantly deepen our understanding of the regularity of the party’s theoretical innovation and achieve more fruitful theoretical innovation results in the new era and new journey.

　　Marxist historical materialism points out that theory is a rational social consciousness, and theoretical innovation is the need of the unity of social existence and social consciousness, which cannot be divorced from the objective law that social existence determines social consciousness and social consciousness reacts on social existence. On the basis of material production and spiritual production, people’s understanding of truth is refined and summed up in the cycle from sensibility to rationality to practice. Theoretical innovation must be based on social practice, and the main body of practice is the people. Marxism defines the people’s dominant position in social production practice and points out the "creative" nature of the people in the process of complex social practice. Marxism is a theory that stands for the people and speaks for them. It was founded to change people’s destiny and enriched and developed in people’s practice of seeking liberation. the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a political party guided by Marxism. To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, it must be closely combined with people’s creative practice, which is an inexhaustible source of Marxist theoretical innovation.

　　Looking back on the history of the Party’s struggle for a hundred years, we can see that the reason why our Party has made great achievements in various historical periods of revolution, construction and reform, and has been able to lead the people to accomplish arduous tasks that other political forces in China can’t, lies in mastering Marxist scientific theory and constantly promoting theoretical innovation in light of new realities. He has made great theoretical achievements such as Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Theory of Three Represents, Scientific Outlook on Development and Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era, and has always adhered to emancipating the mind, seeking truth from facts, advancing with the times, seeking truth and being pragmatic, which has made Marxism glow with great vitality in China and enabled the Party to master a powerful force of truth. The party’s theoretical innovation results all come from people’s wisdom, people’s exploration and people’s creation. Adhering to the people’s supremacy is a profound summary of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s valuable experience in the past 100 years and an unswerving pursuit of value, which is an important embodiment of Marxist people’s view. History has created the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the people’s exploration and struggle, and the Communist Party of China (CPC) led the people to create new historical glory. During the period of new-democratic revolution, socialist revolution and construction, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people, with Comrade Mao Zedong as the main representative, combined the basic principles of Marxism with China’s concrete reality, insisted on integrating theory with practice and keeping close contact with the masses, and with the strong support and sincere support of the broad masses of the people, absorbed the wisdom of the masses and relied on the strength of the people, and founded Mao Zedong Thought through hard exploration. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out, "As long as we rely on the people,Firmly believe that the creativity of the people is endless, so trust the people and become one with them, and then any difficulties can be overcome. " In the new era of reform, opening up and socialist modernization, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people continue to rely on the creative practice of the people and lead the cause development with theoretical innovation. At the end of 1970s, the practice of "all-in-one contract" from Xiaogang Village, Fengyang, Anhui Province directly started the rural reform in China. The party’s major theoretical innovations all come from the people’s creative practice, which shows the people’s creative wisdom. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the people of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with the Supreme Leader as the main representative, have persisted in combining the basic principles of Marxism with the concrete reality of China and the excellent traditional Chinese culture, scientifically answered the major issues of the times such as what kind of Socialism with Chinese characteristics and how to uphold and develop Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, and created the Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era. The Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the New Era is contemporary China Marxism and 21st century Marxism, and it is the essence of Chinese culture and China spirit, which has achieved a new leap in the modernization of Marxism in China.

　　3. To promote the theoretical innovation of the Party, we must follow the mass line.

　　To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, we must go deep into the people and do a good job of investigation and research. The people are the creators of history and the decisive force to promote social development and change. Investigation and research is the heirloom of our party, the foundation of seeking things and the way to achieve things. Investigation is the source of insight. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has attached great importance to investigation and research. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader took the lead in setting an example and went deep into the people. The footprints of investigation and research spread all over the country, setting a shining example for the whole party to do a good job in investigation and research. Going deep into the people to do a good job in investigation and research is the basis of continuously promoting the theoretical innovation of the Party, and it is also the practical need to keep sober and firm in solving the unique problems of the big party and answer the "six how to always". To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, we must not build a car behind closed doors, sit and talk about the road, and become a pipe dream. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed, "We should worship the people as teachers, learn from the people, put down our airs, throw ourselves down, be grounded, understand the situation, conduct in-depth investigation and study, dissect sparrows, find typical examples, truly find out the problems faced by the masses, reflect their opinions and sum up the experience created by the masses." The social practice of the masses is not only the object of our investigation and study, but also the inexhaustible source of our correct understanding. The masses not only know the actual situation best, but also contain the wisdom and strength to solve problems. Only by doing a good job of investigation and study can we continuously promote the party’s theoretical innovation.

　　Promoting the Party’s theoretical innovation must respect the people’s initiative. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "we should respect the people’s initiative, pay attention to summing up fresh experiences from the people’s creative practice, upgrade to rational understanding and refine new theoretical achievements". Respecting the people’s initiative is determined by the nature and purpose of our party, which embodies the Marxist historical values. The development of society is always based on giving full play to people’s subjective initiative and respecting people’s initiative. The will, desire, requirement and practice of the people reflect the trend of social development and embody the law of social development. At present, the changes of the world, times and history are unfolding in an unprecedented way. The "two overall situations" are accelerating and interacting deeply. China’s development has entered a period in which strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase. It is even more necessary for us to persist in taking the people as the center, respect the people’s initiative, fully stimulate the creative power contained in the people, pay attention to the unity of top-level design and consultation with the people, and constantly gain new understanding from summing up the people’s creative practice.

　　Let the party’s innovative theory penetrate into the hearts of hundreds of millions of people. Report to the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out that it is necessary to "build a socialist ideology with strong cohesion and leading power" and "improve the system of arming the whole party, educating the people and guiding practice with the Party’s innovative theory". If great thoughts want generate’s great strength, they must be transformed into concrete social practice, rely on the people as the main body of social practice, and make the innovation theory consciously recognized and sincerely supported by the people, making it a powerful ideological weapon to guide the people to understand and transform the world. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed, "Insist on inner-party education to guide and drive the learning of the whole society, and let the party’s innovative theory ‘ Fly into the homes of ordinary people ’ " . Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era is contemporary China Marxism and 21st century Marxism, and it is the essence of Chinese culture and China spirit. We should persist in casting our souls with Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era, carry out in-depth study, publicity and interpretation in the whole party and society, guide the broad masses of party member, cadres and the masses to deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishment", strengthen the "four consciousnesses", strengthen the "four self-confidences" and achieve the "two maintenance".Consciously maintain a high degree of unity with the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core in ideological and political actions, and unite and struggle for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way. It is necessary to establish a people-centered work orientation, combine serving the people with guiding them to learn the Party’s innovative theory, grasp the theoretical concerns of the people, constantly innovate theoretical propaganda methods, and strive to make the Party’s innovative theory penetrate into the hearts of hundreds of millions of people and become a theory that is grounded, gathers people’s wisdom, conforms to the will of the people, and wins the hearts of the people, bringing together the majestic forces for building a socialist modern country and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

　　Recently, mycoplasma infection and mycoplasma pneumonia have become high-frequency words in mom circle. Three years after the epidemic in COVID-19, before the arrival of mycoplasma infection, children have experienced several rounds of infectious diseases, which are influenza, syncytial virus infection, infectious diarrhea, herpetic angina and so on. From the beginning of school in March this year to the present, "one disease per month" children account for a considerable proportion.

　　The epidemic time of mycoplasma was advanced, and it spread widely.

　　During the epidemic in COVID-19, because everyone wears masks, washes hands frequently, keeps social distance, increases ventilation and disinfects more surfaces, children’s contact with other pathogens is reduced, and the incidence of virus and bacterial infections is reduced. However, everything has two sides. The decrease of infection makes the immune stimulation of pathogens insufficient, the susceptible population increases and the group immunity decreases. After reducing the intensity and scale of group protection in many countries, the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus and other pathogens increased significantly. In this context, experts put forward the concept of immune debt during COVID-19 (the above content was quoted from the No.1 issue of journal of applied clinical pediatrics Journal of China, Volume 38, January 2023, "Immune debt and its influence during the epidemic of children in novel coronavirus").

　　To put it simply, COVID-19’s three-year-old children may get one disease at a time. The flu hit first, and now it’s mycoplasma’s turn.

　　Mycoplasma is a prokaryotic microorganism similar to bacteria but without cell wall, which is between bacteria and viruses, smaller than bacteria and larger than viruses, and is the main pathogenic microorganism of respiratory tract infection. Most common mycoplasma epidemics occur in November and December every year, and this year is advanced to August and September, which affects a wider range of people. The children’s condition is biased and the course of disease is long.

　　Mycoplasma pneumonia has typical characteristics, and children should be vigilant in the following situations.

　　1. Severe irritating dry cough: Severe cough is a prominent symptom of this disease. At the beginning, it is a dry cough, and the cough is stubborn and severe. The child can’t stop coughing and even affect the activities during the day and sleep at night. Late sputum, cough is still severe.

　　2. Fever: high fever is common. If not treated, the fever will persist. There are also people with low body temperature or even no fever, which are relatively few.

　　3. Auscultation often does not hear rales: general doctors with lung infections can hear wet rales, but most of mycoplasma pneumonia can’t hear rales. The auscultation of the lung is very inconsistent with the clinical manifestations such as severe cough and high fever, which has become one of the characteristics of this disease. Therefore, the diagnosis of mycoplasma pneumonia often needs chest radiography to assist the diagnosis.

　　4. Chest X-ray: Typical mycoplasma pneumonia often shows large shadows in the lungs.

　　5. Routine blood test: Routine blood test of mycoplasma has no characteristics, unlike typical bacterial infection, where the total number of white blood cells, neutrophils and CRP are all increased, and unlike virus infection, which is basically normal, white blood cells are often normal or high, or one of them is high.

　　6. Mycoplasma pneumoniae antibody test: Mycoplasma antibody test positive can help diagnosis, but negative can not be excluded. And mycoplasma antibodies are often not detected at the early stage of the disease, which is not helpful for early diagnosis.

　　These are the characteristics of typical mycoplasma pneumonia, but actually not all mycoplasma pneumonia show these characteristics. Clinically, some children only have a high fever and their cough is not obvious. In the clinic, I once met a child who had a fever for 5 days, accompanied by a mild cough for 2 days, and a film was also pneumonia. Some children have no obvious fever, only moderate to low fever, and even have no fever but cough is very severe, and filming is also pneumonia.

　　About mycoplasma infection, these problems should be clear.

　　Will children get pneumonia if they are infected with mycoplasma? Mycoplasma pneumonia is very difficult, okay? Will there be sequelae? Parents have too many questions to answer.

　　First of all, it should be noted that infection with mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) does not necessarily lead to pneumonia. Mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) can not only cause pneumonia, but also cause upper respiratory tract infection (common cold symptoms) and tracheitis.

　　Which children are susceptible to mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) infection? Mycoplasma pneumoniae mainly infects children aged 5-9, that is, school-age children. Recently, this wave of mycoplasma infection has spread to a wider age group, and infants also have severe mycoplasma pneumonia.

　　How to treat mycoplasma pneumonia? Once mycoplasma pneumonia is diagnosed, macrolide drugs such as erythromycin and azithromycin are given for treatment. Mycoplasma infection is not sensitive to penicillins and cephalosporins.

　　Why do children still progress to pneumonia after taking azithromycin? Is it delayed? Azithromycin is a specific drug for treating mycoplasma infection. Some children took azithromycin orally in the early stage of fever, but their condition was still getting worse and more serious pneumonia appeared. Parents often don’t quite understand why they developed pneumonia after taking azithromycin at the early stage of taking their children to see a doctor. The reason for this is complicated, which may be related to the variation or drug resistance of mycoplasma. It may also be related to the child’s poor rest after illness, or to the child’s physique.

　　Mycoplasma pneumonia is very difficult, okay? Will there be sequelae? Mycoplasma pneumonia has a good prognosis after regular treatment. However, there are also serious mycoplasma pneumonia, and the effect of antibiotic treatment is not ideal, so special drugs such as hormones are needed, and some need bronchoscopy to assist diagnosis and treatment.

　　If mycoplasma pneumonia is diagnosed, the child should be treated completely according to the doctor’s requirements, and hospitalization is needed if necessary. Have a good rest during and after the treatment, and don’t take classes with illness. After the treatment, you need a rest period.

　　How to prevent mycoplasma pneumonia? When the child is at school, the class should actively open the window for ventilation; Children should carry out appropriate physical activities to increase immunity; Don’t arrange extracurricular classes and physical classes too full, but step by step, so that children can have an adaptation process; Drink plenty of water, don’t eat too much, and ensure daily defecation. Daily ventilation should be ensured in the family. If children have mycoplasma infection, isolation should be implemented as much as possible to reduce cross-infection in the family.

　　Cctv newsAt present, the domestic epidemic situation is scattered at many points, and the number of imported cases continues to increase, which further increases the risk of imported epidemic situations outside Beijing and outside Beijing. Some close contacts, on the way back to Beijing by train, plane and other public transport, are close to or overlap with the seats of the confirmed cases, because they wear N95 masks regularly, don’t eat, walk less and talk less, and do personal protection all the time, and finally they are not infected. Protect yourself and protect your family.

　　The Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention reminded people returning to Beijing to raise their awareness of prevention and control and do a good job of personal protection on their way back to Beijing..

　　Before returning to Beijing

　　★　Personnel entering and returning to Beijing should strictly implement the epidemic prevention policy.Plan your trip in advance., minimize transit.

　　★　　Prepare enough protective materials such as masks and hand-washing-free disinfectants.

　　★　　It is not recommended to travel for people who feel unwell, especially those who have respiratory symptoms such as fever and cough. Especially for the elderly, pregnant women and special people with chronic diseases, it is recommended to ask professional doctors to evaluate their health before deciding whether to travel.

　　On the way back to Beijing

　　★　　Personal protection throughout the process.. Adhere to scientific and standardized measures to prevent and control the normalized epidemic situation, such as wearing masks, washing hands frequently, often ventilating, and keeping a safe social distance.

　　★　Cooperate with transportation departments such as railways, civil aviation, passenger transport, and road checkpoints, and strictly implement various prevention and control measures such as temperature measurement and code inspection and inspection of nucleic acid certificates in accordance with relevant regulations.

　　★　When waiting for a bus, try to wait in a well-ventilated space, and do not stay in a crowded, closed place with dirty air for a long time. Do a good job of personal protection.

　　★　　Pay attention to hand hygiene after using public facilities such as toilets and elevators.

　　★　　When taking airplanes, trains and other means of transportation,It is necessary to wear masks in a standardized way throughout the journey, minimize walking, reduce contact with others, and reduce the frequency of meals., reduce the risk of infection.

　　★　　When dining out, you should pay attention to eating at the wrong peak and choose a ventilated place to sit. Try to sit down at intervals or eat on the same side. When two or more people eat together, they should use public chopsticks and spoons.

　　After returning to Beijing

　　★　Those who enter and return to Beijing need to hold the negative nucleic acid certificate within 48 hours and the green code of "Beijing Health Treasure" to strictly abide by various epidemic prevention regulations.

　　★　Personnel returning to Beijing in risk areas should take the initiative to report to communities, units, hotels and other departments in a timely manner and cooperate with various epidemic prevention measures such as isolation observation, health monitoring and nucleic acid detection.

　　★　Carry out 3 days and 2 inspections.That is, one nucleic acid test is completed within 24 hours after arrival in Beijing, and the second nucleic acid test is completed within 72 hours after the interval of 24 hours.No dinner, no party or going to crowded places within 7 days.Do not visit relatives and friends, recommend online shopping, reduce going out before the negative result of nucleic acid test, and do personal protection when going out.

　　★　Pay close attention to the health of yourself and your family.Once you have symptoms such as fever, dry cough, fatigue, sore throat, decreased sense of smell, diarrhea, etc., don’t buy medicine by yourself, don’t take public transportation, and seek medical treatment in time according to regulations.

[ITBEAR] Recently, the state’s support for the new energy automobile industry has continued to increase, and a series of policies and measures aimed at promoting the development of electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing (referred to as "new four modernizations") have been introduced one after another, injecting strong impetus into the market. Among them, the subsidy policy of automobile trade-in has become the focus of consumers’ attention, and its market effect is remarkable.

The positive signal recently released by the National Development and Reform Commission is even more exciting for consumers, and the national subsidy policy is expected to continue to be implemented in the future, which undoubtedly provides more expectations for consumers who are interested in buying cars. According to the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission, the support for the "two new" policies will be further increased in the future, and a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods will be promoted, and the subsidy policy for trade-in in the automobile field will play an important role.

Major car companies actively responded to the call of the state and introduced preferential policies for car purchase in succession, in order to get a share of the dividend of the state subsidy policy. From the replacement subsidy policies introduced by Cadillac, Star Road Star Era and Volvo at Guangzhou Auto Show to the active participation of brands such as Wuling Automobile, the market competition has become increasingly fierce. Car companies attract consumers’ attention by increasing subsidy amount, optimizing car purchase process and improving service quality, and strive to stand out in the fierce market competition.

However, while enjoying the policy dividend, consumers also need to pay attention to the specific implementation details of relevant policies. Although the National Development and Reform Commission has clearly stated that the state subsidy policy will continue, the specific subsidy standards and rules have not yet been finalized. When consumers apply for subsidies, they also need to prepare car purchase invoices, driving licenses and other relevant supporting documents to ensure the smooth receipt of subsidies.

For consumers who have not yet bought a car, the continuation of the national subsidy policy is undoubtedly good news. They can pay close attention to the policy trends, understand the preferential activities of car companies, and plan the car purchase plan in advance, so as to buy a car at the right time and enjoy the benefits brought by the policy.

On March 7 th, the progress of Tesla FSD (fully autonomous driving) has always been a point of great concern to the outside world. Now, more news about the landing of FSD Beta has been revealed. According to related news, Tesla FSD will land in the European market in 2025, and it is also advancing rapidly in China, and it is expected to be released this summer.

It is pointed out that the European Union adopted relevant new regulations at the just-held World Vehicle Regulations Coordination Forum, and according to this new regulation, it is confirmed that Tesla FSD European version will land in the European market in 2025, and in October this year, Tesla FSD Beta test will start testing in the European Union.

In China, the China version of Tesla FSD Beta is also advancing rapidly. It is reported that the goal is to be officially released this summer. In November last year, four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to deploy and carry out the pilot work of intelligent networked vehicle access and road traffic. At that time, Tesla FSD was considered to have entered the countdown stage.

Earlier, in May last year, Chen Kele, deputy director of the Intelligent Manufacturing Promotion Department of Shanghai Economic and Information Committee, said: In the next stage, Shanghai will further deepen its cooperation with Tesla, promote the layout of functional sectors such as autonomous driving and robots in Shanghai, and jointly build a technology industry cluster with core technological advantages and facing the global market. This also makes us believe that the landing of Tesla FSD in China is indeed just around the corner.

Tesla FSD, the full name of which is Full Self-Drive, means fully automatic driving. At present, Tesla has launched three assisted driving products, namely AP, EAP, and FSD, among which AP is the most basic and EAP is to enhance assisted driving, which can provide intelligent calling, automatic parking, NOA and other functions. These two functions can be used in China at present.

As Tesla’s highest-level assisted driving ability, FSD can provide navigation-assisted driving, automatic lane change, automatic parking, intelligent calling, traffic signal recognition and other functions. Up to now, only the Beta version has been provided in North America. But in fact, these capabilities are already possessed by major domestic new energy brands and have been used on the road. In this respect, Tesla is indeed a little behind. I believe that Tesla is also actively responding to ensure the early landing of FSD in China, which will also bring new revenue to it. We will continue to pay attention to this.

Adhering to the people-centered principle is one of the basic strategies for upholding and developing Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era. Community is the most basic living place for people, and the starting point of community planning and construction is the vital interests of the grassroots. In August, 2020, 13 departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, jointly issued the Opinions on Carrying out the Short-board Action of Urban Residential Community Construction, and at the same time issued the Standard for the Construction of Complete Residential Community (Trial), which clearly stated that the goal is to build a safe, healthy, well-equipped and well-managed complete residential community, and the supporting facilities of residential community should be improved as the focus, and the short-board action of residential community construction should be vigorously carried out. Residential community is the basic unit of urban residents’ life and urban governance, bearing the people’s hopes for a better life. It is of great significance to comprehensively improve the quality and service level of infrastructure construction in residential communities to enhance people’s sense of acquisition, happiness and security.

Foundation first, improve people’s basic needs for a better life

Infrastructure such as water, electricity, gas, heat and communication is an important guarantee for the normal life of community residents. Due to the early construction, the problems such as the erection of wires from a distance and the aging of pipelines have not only brought serious troubles to the lives of some residents in old communities, but also caused a huge waste of resources and energy. In July 2020, the General Office of the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Areas (hereinafter referred to as "Guiding Opinions"), which clearly stated that starting from the most direct and realistic interests that the people are most concerned about, the residents’ opinions should be solicited and the renovation contents should be reasonably determined, and the supporting facilities of residential areas and municipal infrastructure should be improved. In the process of community transformation, we should adhere to the principle of "underground first, then above ground", give priority to the transformation of underground pipelines such as water supply, rainwater, sewage, gas, electricity and communication, and upgrade public infrastructure such as roads, fire protection, charging, lighting and domestic waste sorting. Implement the concept of sponge city, protect and restore the community ecosystem, build a sponge community, effectively combine natural channels with manual measures, comprehensively adopt the measures of "infiltration, stagnation, storage, purification, use and discharge", and carry out roof greening, rainwater storage and collection and utilization, and micro-topography construction according to local conditions through combined design, so as to scientifically and orderly promote the transformation of rainwater and sewage diversion and mixed connection in the community with separate system, and maximize the realization of rainwater in the residential community. Actively promote the classification of domestic waste, improve the facilities for classified delivery, classified collection and classified transportation, and at the same time strengthen publicity to make the awareness of garbage classification deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

The Guiding Opinions pointed out that by the end of the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, we should strive to basically complete the task of rebuilding old urban communities that need to be rebuilt before the end of 2000 in light of local conditions. As far as the current situation is concerned, the task of transformation is arduous. On the one hand, it is necessary to ensure capital investment and establish a long-term mechanism. The government, residents and social forces should share the burden reasonably and improve the long-term management mechanism of the community. On the other hand, community residents and professional and technical personnel should participate extensively, encourage planners and engineers to enter the community, improve the renovation design and refined governance level of old residential areas, promote the construction and renovation of community human settlements in a simple, moderate, green and low-carbon way, and strive to improve the functional quality of the community.

Overall coordination to ensure the healthy circulation of urban water system

Urban water system is a comprehensive system based on water cycle, water flux as the medium, water facilities as the carrier, water safety as the goal and water management as the means. Residential community is the spatial carrier of domestic water and sewage discharge of the broad masses of people, an important place for the conversion of material flow and energy flow, and a key node of urban water system. At present, the overall efficiency of urban water system in China needs to be improved. According to the Statistical Yearbook of Urban Construction in 2020 published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the leakage of urban public water supply network in China is about 7.85 billion cubic meters, accounting for about 13% of the total urban public water supply, which is still far from the goal that the leakage rate of water supply network is less than 10% in the Outline of Industry Development Plan for Urban Water Affairs in 2035. The concentration of influent biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) in some sewage treatment plants in China is less than 100 mg per liter. It is urgent to systematically investigate the reasons for the low influent concentration around the pipe network in the service area and steadily improve the efficiency of sewage collection and treatment facilities. Due to the influence of extreme climate and the imperfect drainage and waterlogging prevention engineering system, urban waterlogging incidents occur from time to time, and the urban drainage and waterlogging prevention engineering system of "source emission reduction, pipe network discharge, simultaneous storage and drainage, and emergency exceeding the standard" needs to be improved urgently.

The upgrading and transformation of community infrastructure should not only meet the basic service needs of community residents, but also organically combine with the overall improvement of municipal facilities system functions, and implement the overall layout and policy requirements of the state on improving the quality and efficiency of each subsystem of urban water system. In terms of urban water supply, the General Office of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Guidelines for the Measurement and Management of Urban Water Supply Pipe Network by District-Construction of Water Supply Pipe Network Leakage Control System" (for Trial Implementation) in 2017, guiding local governments to take the measurement and management of urban water supply pipe network as the starting point, strengthen the leakage control of urban water supply pipe network with systematic ideas, improve the level of refined and information management of water supply pipe network, and enhance the ability of water supply security. In practice, we should combine the construction of complete community, the renovation of old residential areas, the renovation of shanty towns and the renovation of secondary water supply facilities, formulate the implementation plan of metering management in different areas of the pipe network according to local conditions, design and implement it synchronously with the construction and renovation of the pipe network, coordinate water metering and water pressure control, water quality safety and facilities management, pipe network operation and business charge management, and build a pipe network leakage control system. In terms of urban sewage treatment, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development in 2020 issued the "Implementation Plan for Supplementing Shortboards and Strengths of Urban Domestic Sewage Treatment Facilities", which clearly proposed to combine the renovation of old residential areas and municipal roads, promote the connection construction of branch pipe networks and outdoor pipes, supplement "capillaries", and implement mixed connection, missed connection, and renovation of old and damaged pipe networks to improve the efficiency of sewage collection. In terms of urban waterlogging control, the General Office of the State Council issued the Implementation Opinions on Strengthening Urban Waterlogging Control in 2021.It is clearly put forward that priority should be given to solving the problems of waterlogging in residential communities, mixed connection of rainwater and sewage pipe networks, etc. By disconnecting the rainwater pipes of buildings, optimizing the vertical design, and strengthening the elevation connection of buildings, roads, green spaces, landscape water bodies, etc., rainwater overflow can be discharged into drainage pipe networks, natural water bodies or recycled after collection.

Green and low carbon help the city achieve the goal of "double carbon" as scheduled.

Realizing peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality is an important strategic decision made by the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, an inevitable choice to solve the outstanding problems of resource and environment constraints, realize the sustainable development of the Chinese nation, and a solemn commitment to build a community of human destiny. In October, 2021, the State Council issued "peak carbon dioxide emissions Action Plan before 2030", which clearly stated that the green production lifestyle was widely implemented during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. Building green towns and communities. From the international experience, the improvement of residents’ quality of life will push up the per capita carbon emission level, and the essence of community renewal and transformation is to improve residents’ quality of life, and to actively intervene in green technology and green lifestyle to prevent the future increase of community carbon emissions. At the community level, the primary goal is to realize people’s high-quality life, and at the same time, we should popularize green lifestyles such as water saving, garbage sorting and food saving, enhance residents’ acceptance of green lifestyles, and ensure the smooth implementation of the national "double carbon" strategy. In the process of community infrastructure renovation, franchise units should seize the important opportunity of community renovation and old residential area renovation, speed up the renovation of underground pipe network, adopt new sewage collection and rainwater utilization technologies, comprehensively improve the efficiency of infrastructure operation system, and reduce the background energy consumption and carbon emission level of infrastructure operation in the community. Promote green technologies such as the integration of plants, networks and rivers, the utilization of reclaimed water and the management of non-profitable water, strengthen the construction of smart water, and realize the systematic carbon emission reduction of urban water system from the source to the end of the community. Code for Design of Outdoor Drainage(GB50014-2021) clearly requires that when sewage collection and centralized treatment facilities have been built in cities and towns, septic tanks should not be set in the separate drainage system. Septic tanks will not only intercept COD (carbon source) and affect the influent concentration of sewage treatment plants, but also anaerobically convert the intercepted COD into greenhouse gases such as methane. At present, the urban sewage treatment rate in China has reached 97.53%. In the process of community sewage facilities renovation, canceling the septic tank construction according to local conditions can not only reduce the renovation cost and urban greenhouse gas emissions, but also increase the influent concentration of sewage treatment plants and improve the operation efficiency of sewage treatment plants.

Scientific evaluation and building the bottom line of residential community safety

At present, China’s urban construction has entered a new stage of stock-based and high-quality development. Problems such as aging stock infrastructure, overloaded operation and untimely operation and maintenance may cause disasters and accidents. In 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the "Notice on Strengthening the Construction of Supporting Facilities for the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Areas", clearly requiring the organization of relevant professional business units to jointly investigate the possible safety hazards of supporting infrastructure such as gas, electricity, drainage and heating, and public spaces. Safety is no small matter, and responsibility is greater than heaven. Community infrastructure construction should be based on security, expand the connotation of resilience, and integrate the concepts of intensive, green, intelligent and collaborative to build an infrastructure security system to help the high-quality development of the city. Safety awareness should run through the whole process of building a complete community and transforming old communities. In the process of compiling the community renewal and transformation plan, facilities such as gas, electricity, drainage and heating with potential safety hazards should be given priority as key contents. Involving gas, electricity, drainage, heating and other security risks, we should ensure that the security review does not leak items. Professional business units should implement safety responsibilities, strengthen the protection of construction and operation and maintenance forces, and eliminate potential safety hazards. Make full use of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and other information technologies, promote the construction of community intelligent disaster prevention and mitigation system, promote the sharing and application of data related to disasters and accidents, and accelerate the construction of community disaster comprehensive monitoring and early warning perception network and terminal equipment.

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to promote green development and carry out actions to create green communities. Green community is an inevitable choice for the development of modern cities and an important part of building beautiful China. The construction of green community should combine urban renewal and upgrading of existing housing, implement the concept of sponge city, integrate resilience elements and wisdom elements, realize the greening of community infrastructure, promote the improvement and sustainable development of municipal infrastructure system, and build urban ecological infrastructure system, so as to continuously improve people’s sense of acquisition, happiness and security.

Chang kui

Chief Engineer, Doctor, Senior Engineer, Ecological Municipal Institute of China Planning and Design Institute (Beijing) Co., Ltd. Long-term engaged in urban water environment improvement, sponge city construction, water system planning, ecological protection planning, municipal engineering and land space planning and other related professional fields. Participated in more than 20 planning, design and technical consulting projects, 4 national scientific research projects, 2 standard specifications and 4 monographs. He has won one second prize of Huaxia Construction Science and Technology Award, one first prize and two second prizes of National Excellent Urban and Rural Planning and Design Award, and one first prize of Provincial Excellent Urban and Rural Planning and Design Award. Participated in Yushu earthquake relief work, was responsible for the docking and coordination of Jiegu Town municipal engineering, and was awarded the title of "Advanced Individual in Yushu Earthquake Recovery and Reconstruction" by Yushu State Party Committee and Yushu State Government.

　　A few days ago, the newspaper "Don’t let students play" soft ball "aroused the concern of the society about students’ physical health. Yesterday, after interviewing some schools, the reporter found that many PE teachers were afraid to take part in sports for fear of accidental injuries to students. Traditional sports such as "jumping goats" and single parallel bars are quietly withdrawing from primary and secondary schools in physical education class.

　　Afraid of students being injured, they dare not go to the project.

　　A physical education teacher in the city told the reporter that his school has not participated in the jumping box project for many years. On the surface, it is more troublesome to prepare before class, and the mat is also a box, but the more important reason is that students are afraid of injury. "Especially primary school students can’t stand it, and they can fall out with a wrong eye."

　　The teacher’s "jumping box" is commonly known as "jumping goat", and most people over 30 years old have practiced it on the physical education class in their student days. This project is mainly to train students’ ability to overcome obstacles, and also to test students’ psychological quality. Under normal circumstances, senior primary school students should learn "goat prancing with split legs", junior high school students and senior high school girls should learn "horizontal box prancing with split legs" and "horizontal box prancing with bent legs", while senior high school boys should learn "vertical box prancing with split legs" and "vertical box prancing with bent legs". However, up to now, few schools offer this program.

　　The events with the same fate as "Bouncing Box" include the single parallel bars. A physical education teacher with more than 20 years’ teaching experience said that he had never started this project since he entered the profession. At first, the school didn’t have the venue conditions, but later he dared not take it, for fear that students would be injured. "Today’s children can’t really talk. They didn’t last for a few seconds, either their arms were twisted or their shoulders were twisted, and wrist fracture’s children couldn’t attend class … …” The teacher repeatedly expressed his feelings.

　　Change the content to avoid disputes.

　　Physical education teachers are afraid to take part in the project, fearing the disputes that may be caused by students’ exercise injuries.

　　A physical education teacher told the reporter about his experience. Once, he gave a class to a fifth-grade student. A student fell down while running 50 meters. At that time, he asked if the child was injured. The child said that he was fine, but his arm was red and swollen after returning to work. The class teacher called the parents. Later, parents were adamant. First, they complained that the teacher didn’t send their children to the hospital at the first time. Later, they said that their children were made for the air force, and injuries would affect their future service as soldiers. The physical education teacher had no choice but to make amends at home every three days until his parents cooled down.

　　It is understood that schools encounter such disputes in different ways. Some schools will pay children’s medical expenses, but some schools will let PE teachers bear the consequences themselves, which will bring pressure to PE teachers invisibly.

　　In order to avoid disputes, many PE teachers have to reduce their own risks without violating the syllabus. For example, there are gymnastics teaching contents in the syllabus, but the teachers no longer take the single and parallel bars, but only use relatively simple movements such as forward roll, back roll, horizontal fork and vertical fork instead. Even the most common winter long-distance running events, many schools have to issue a "parents’ notice" before the start of the race, so that parents can confirm whether their children can participate in this sport, so as to avoid being "accounted for" after the accident.

　　New monitoring and evaluation standards are brewing.

　　I am afraid that my child will be injured and dare not go to the project. Is this for the sake of my child or for the sake of my child?

　　In this regard, Li Xiangru, a professor at Capital Institute of Physical Education, believes that the decline of primary and secondary school students’ physical fitness and ability to adapt to society is related to the lack of challenging events in physical education class. We should not regard physical education class as a simple physical education class, but link physical education class with the all-round development of teenagers.

　　In his view, the physical education curriculum in primary and secondary schools should be reformed around "what kind of teenagers should be trained". In this process, it is necessary for young people to enhance their ability to resist blows, setbacks and injuries in physical exercise. From a certain point of view, failing to get on the "dangerous project" tests the responsibility of primary and secondary school principals and physical education teachers.

　　As for the fear of students’ injuries, he feels that among all disciplines, physical education class is a high-risk course, and minor injuries are inevitable in sports. As long as physical education teachers are not negligent, they should not be held accountable to physical education teachers. "Students’ injuries should be viewed objectively, not necessarily the problems of schools and teachers."

　　In addition, the reporter learned from relevant departments that the Municipal Education Commission, the Municipal Sports Bureau and the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention are preparing the "Evaluation Standard for physical education class Exercise Load of Primary and Secondary School Students in Beijing", with a view to monitoring and evaluating the quality of physical education class in primary and secondary schools by issuing local standards. If it goes well, the standard is expected to be officially introduced next year.

Beijing Population Development No.39 [2011].

Population and Family Planning Commission and Finance Bureau of all districts and counties:

　　In order to thoroughly implement Scientific Outlook on Development, give priority to family planning families to enjoy the fruits of reform and development, and promote the coordinated and sustainable development of population, economy and society in this city, according to the spirit of the Notice of the State Population and Family Planning Commission and the Ministry of Finance on Incorporating Rural Residents with Half Households into the Rural Family Planning Reward and Support System, and combining with the actual situation of this city, it is decided to implement rural family planning reward and support for rural residents with half households in this city (hereinafter referred to as "Half Households Rural Residents Reward and Support"). Relevant matters are hereby notified as follows:

　　First, enjoy the definition of "half households" to reward and help rural residents

　　"Half-household" refers to a couple whose one party is a rural resident of this city and the other is an urban resident. The nature of the household registration of the parties concerned is subject to the first page of my current valid household registration book.

　　Two, the basic content of "half of rural residents reward and assistance"

　　"Half-family rural residents’ reward and assistance" refers to the rural residents in this city who enjoy the 100 yuan reward and assistance per person per month when they reach the age of 60. This system has been implemented in rural areas of the city since January 1, 2011.

　　(a) the application conditions for reward and assistance objects

　　The object of reward and assistance shall meet the following conditions:

　　1. I and my spouse are "half-family" family planning families, and I have the household registration of rural residents in this city;

　　2. I was born after January 1, 1933 and reached the age of 60;

　　3, since January 1, 1973, there is no violation of family planning laws, regulations, rules and policies to give birth to children (including adoption, the same below);

　　4. There is only one child now.　 　 　

　　(two) the standard of payment of bonus.

　　1, "half households" rural residents incentive assistance payments to individuals as a unit, since I reached the age of 60 next year, according to the standard of 100 yuan per person per month once a year, until death. If the measures are over 60 years old at the time of implementation, they will be issued from the actual age in 2011 and will not be reissued.

　　2, the source of incentive assistance and the proportion of sharing according to the relevant provisions of the family planning system in rural areas of our city.

　　3. Entrusted by the Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission, the agency will establish a personal account for the confirmed reward and assistance objects in a timely manner, and directly transfer the reward and assistance funds to the personal account of the reward and assistance objects.

　　(three) the confirmation procedure of the object of reward and assistance

　　Confirmation of the "half-family" rural residents’ reward and assistance objects shall be carried out in accordance with the following basic procedures:

　　1. I apply;

　　2. The villagers’ committee deliberated and publicized;

　　3 Township People’s government, street offices and publicity;

　　4 county population and Family Planning Commission review, confirmation and publicity;

　　5 city population and Family Planning Commission checks and logical audit.

　　If the reward and assistance object changes, it shall be reported by the villagers’ committee in time.

　　The county population and Family Planning Commission is responsible for organizing the annual examination of the reward and assistance objects.

　　(four) the principle of termination of the qualification of the object of reward and assistance

　　If the object of reward and assistance is in any of the following circumstances, the villagers’ committee shall verify it in time and go through the procedures for withdrawing from reward and assistance:

　　1, my household registration from rural residents to urban residents;

　　2, my account moved out of the city;

　　3. After I have given birth or adopted a child, the determination of the number of children no longer meets the prescribed conditions;

　　4, reward and help the object of my death;

　　5. Other circumstances that should be terminated.

　　Three, the county population and family planning departments should be in accordance with the spirit of this notice, planning to do a good job in policy propaganda and implementation, timely publicity of policies to the village to the people, so that the masses know, and actively do a good job in organizing the declaration of eligible objects.

　　In 2012, the "half-family" rural residents’ reward and assistance work began to be included in the reward and assistance system for some rural family planning families, and it was organized and implemented together. In 2011, the bonus will be reissued from January 1st.

　　Fourth, the qualification confirmation, specific measures for policy implementation, basic principles, payment methods and fund management, organization and leadership, fund supervision and management, and form filling of the "half-family" rural residents shall refer to the Notice of the General Office of the Beijing Municipal People’s Government on Forwarding the Opinions of the Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission and the Municipal Finance Bureau on Establishing the Incentive and Support System for Family Planning Families in Rural Areas of this Municipality (Beijing Zhengban Fa [2005] No.33). Notice of population and family planning commission of Beijing Municipality on Printing and Distributing the Policy Interpretation of Opinions on Establishing the Family Planning Reward and Assistance System in Rural Areas of this Municipality (J.P.F. [2005] No.51), Notice of Beijing Municipal Bureau of Finance of Beijing Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission on Printing and Distributing the Management Standard of Family Planning Reward and Assistance System in Rural Areas of Beijing (J.P.F. [2007] No.6) and other reward and assistance work requirements shall be implemented.

Beijing Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission

beijing finance bureau

October 10, 2011