IPhone 16 Pro Max endurance test: it’s ok every day, and the game video is lame.

In the early morning of September 10th, Apple held a special event for new products in autumn, and new products such as iPhone 16 series, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4 officially appeared.

In this special event, the most eye-catching new products are naturally the iPhone 16 series, especially the two Pro models, which are bigger and stronger.Even Apple introduced at the time of release: iPhone 16 Pro Max is the largest display size iPhone so far.

(Source: Apple Newsroom)

In fact, there are two reasons why Pro Max is popular all over the world: First, the display screen is large enough, and the experience of playing games and watching videos is cool enough;The other is that the battery life is enough. Under the blessing of over 4000 mAh capacity and ProMotion, it is almost the king of battery life of every generation of iPhone.

When releasing the iPhone 16 series, Apple said,Thanks to the new internal layout design, the heat dissipation performance of iPhone 16 Pro (and MAX) has been greatly improved, and the battery life has been improved. The low power consumption of A18 chip and the AI function of iOS18 further enhance the endurance of iPhone 16 Pro (and MAX).

So, what is the real performance of iPhone 16 battery life? Xiao Lei bought the iPhone 16 Pro Max when he was hungry for the first time (note: it is not a "media machine", so it can be objectively evaluated without considering Apple’s feelings). What is the battery life performance of this machine? Can you refresh the iPhone life record? After two days of experience, Xiao Lei has the answer.

The battery capacity increased by 5.5% year-on-year, but it is still poor in the industry.

The most significant upgrade of iPhone 16 Pro Max compared with iPhone 15 Pro Max is that its size has become larger, from 6.7 inches in the previous generation to 6.9 inches.

Although the paper parameters have increased by 0.2 inches, Apple has used extremely narrow bezel design on both models of this generation of iPhone 16 Pro series, so there is not much difference in grip and visual perception. IPhone 16 Pro Max has a width of 77.6 mm and a height of 163 mm, while iPhone 15 Pro Max has a width of 76.7 mm and a height of 159.9 mm..

(Source: Lei Technology filmed left: iPhone 16 Pro, right: iPhone 16 Pro Max)

As for the weight of the whole machine, the iPhone 16 Pro Max has returned to 227g, which is roughly equivalent to the weight of the iPhone 12 Pro Max.

It is not difficult to see from the measurements that the overall size and weight of the iPhone 16 Pro Max have not changed much, but the length is longer, and the battery capacity should not change significantly.

Sure enough, according to the disassembly report, the battery capacity of iPhone 16 Pro Max is 4,685 mAh. In contrast, the battery capacity of iPhone 15 Pro Max is 4,441 mAh, an increase of about 5.5%.

(Source: techinsights)

It is worth noting that this generation of iPhone also has some differences in battery technology.The iPhone 16 Pro uses a steel case battery, while the iPhone 16 Pro Max is still an L-shaped soft bag battery.In fact, the difference between the two batteries is mainly the form and detachable design. According to the current information, Apple has not improved the energy density of the steel shell battery of the iPhone 16 Pro.

Battery technology is the hottest topic in the mobile phone market in 2024, and almost all Android manufacturers are trying to maximize the battery life. For example, the battery energy density of vivo S19 reaches 809Wh/L, which makes it possible to pack a large-capacity battery with 6000 mAh into a 7.19mm body, and the weight of the whole machine is only 193g g.

(Source: vivo)

Just looking at the technical level, the battery capacity of iPhone 16 Pro Max is still "searching" as always. Obviously, it has reached the display area of 6.9 inches, but it has not yet reached the general 5000 mAh. However, we are also very clear that the battery life of mobile phones is often not only about battery capacity, but also closely related to processor energy efficiency, system optimization and other aspects.

Then the question is coming. What is the actual endurance performance of the iPhone 16 Pro Max with less than 5000 mAh battery?

Medium battery life: extreme scenes collapse and excellent daily use.

IPhone 16 Pro Max is different from the previous generation in terms of image strategy, which means that most of the friends who will consider starting this "super cup" at this time period have more audio-visual entertainment needs, such as games and watching movies.

In the game link, we chose League of Legends Mobile Games and Ming Chao. The former is a MOBA mobile game that has been optimized in all clients at present, while the latter is an open world game with little optimization.

1 hour "League of Legends Mobile Games" experience,Power consumption is only 14%The whole fuselage is only warm, and with the phone case, you can hardly feel the heat. It is worth mentioning that iOS 18 supports automatic recognition of mobile games and starts the game mode. After entering this mode, the camera control button will no longer take effect, and friends who are worried about touching it by mistake can rest assured.

On the "Ming Chao", which has hardly been specially optimized, the performance of iPhone 16 Pro Max is more general.The measured power consumption in one hour is 18%, and the whole process is obviously heated, and the heat is concentrated in the middle of the fuselage.Perhaps it is a problem of fever, and the iPhone 16 Pro Max consumes electricity faster in this link.

(Source: Produced by Lei Technology)

I have to say that in this new product activity, Apple specially introduced the fuselage heat dissipation of the iPhone 16 Pro series, but I didn’t expect that the A18 Pro was still difficult to control in extreme scenes (you can search for the special evaluation of the heat dissipation of the iPhone 16 series by Lei Technology).

Back to everyday scenes, such as HDR video viewing, 12% power consumption in one hour, and browsing social platforms, 8% power consumption in one hour.Under the 4-hour limit test, the remaining power of iPhone 16 Pro Max is 48%.

(Source: Lei Technology Drawing)

This achievement is definitely in the middle level in the current smart phone market. After all, the iPhone 16 Pro Max has been defeated in terms of battery capacity. But only 4685 mAh battery can achieve such endurance performance, which is also very good for me.

If we put the scene in our daily life, the battery life of the iPhone 16 Pro Max does have surprises. For example, in the 8-hour test of night sleep with all-weather display turned on, only 7% of electricity was consumed; During commuting time, replying to social platforms such as WeChat and brushing Tik Tok will only consume 4% of electricity in 30 minutes.

(Source: Lei Technology Drawing)

Thanks to the optimization of iOS 18, iPhone 16 Pro Max does have good energy consumption control in daily use. According to the model of frequently replying to WeChat, occasionally brushing social platforms, and coming to two games during lunch break,It’s no problem to use it after a day.But at present, the most power-consuming scene of iPhone 16 Pro Max is 4K video recording, and about half an hour of recording will consume 17% of electricity.If you plan to take it to a concert, then charging treasure is still an essential equipment.

(Source: Lei Technology Drawing)

Although the battery life performance of iPhone 16 Pro Max is not bad, its charging speed still stays at an average of about 27W, and the peak of the network access license prompt is 45W, which lasted for 2 seconds at most, while the power of about 35W lasted for less than 2 minutes. It can be said,IPhone 16 Pro Max is a mobile phone with insufficient endurance.

Write at the end:

IPhone 16 Pro Max has once again set a new battery life record with only 5.5% increase in battery capacity, but for now, it has not opened the gap with Android flagships.

(Source: Produced by Lei Technology)

Android flagships have not used a new generation of batteries, nor have they used the SoC of 3nm process technology, so there is still much room for imagination in the future battery life. In terms of charging, Android flagships have obvious advantages, and they have been generally equipped with more than 50W wired fast charging to provide "quick blood return" ability. In this way, it is not an exaggeration to say that battery life is becoming a shortcoming of the iPhone.

After the whole experience, Xiao Lei believes that if you pay attention to all-weather endurance and there is no need for emergency recharge, then iPhone 16 Pro Max is indeed a good choice; If you value long-term game life, then iPhone 16 Pro Max may not be suitable for you. Of course, if you are used to carrying a charging treasure with you, everything is not a problem.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  Recently, the increase of adenovirus infection in many places has attracted people’s attention.

  What is adenovirus? What are the symptoms after infection? How to prevent it? Let’s get to know each other!

  What diseases can human adenovirus cause?

  Adenovirus, namely human adenovirus. Human adenovirus is an important pathogen causing acute respiratory infection, which has strong environmental viability and transmission ability. Human adenovirus can cause outbreaks in densely populated and poorly hygienic environments. Human adenovirus includes 7 subgenus.
(A-G) at least 116 types.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  Because there are many types and different tissue tropism, different tissue and organ diseases are caused.It mainly includes acute respiratory infection, conjunctivitis and gastrointestinal diseases..

  01.Symptoms of respiratory infection:

  Acute respiratory infection is the most common, which causes common cold and flu-like symptoms. Typical clinical manifestations include cough, sore throat and fever, and severe cases may lead to pneumonia or even death. Types 3 and 7 in subgenus B are the main types of acute respiratory infection in China, and type 55 is the main type of community-acquired pneumonia in adults. Acute respiratory tract infections caused by type 1 and type 2 in subgenus C and type 4 in subgenus E are also common.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  02.Symptoms of eye infection:

  It is also one of the common symptoms of human adenovirus infection, which can causeEpidemic keratoconjunctivitis, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, pharyngeal conjunctival fever, etc.A variety of eye diseases, and in crowded places such as schools, can cause an outbreak of eye infections, and can also cause "swimming pool fever (that is, pharyngeal conjunctival fever, symptoms include persistent high fever, pharyngitis and acute follicular conjunctivitis)". Types 3 and 7 of subgenus B and types 8, 19 and 64 of subgenus D are the main types causing the above infections.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  03.Gastrointestinal symptoms:

  Many types of human adenovirus can be replicated in the gastrointestinal tract of infected people and excreted with feces, but only a few types of infection can cause gastroenteritis and infected people appear.Abdominal pain and diarrheaWait for symptoms. Human adenovirus subfamily F type 41 is the main type causing symptoms of gastrointestinal infection.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  What should I do if I am infected with human adenovirus?

  Infected with human adenovirus, those with mild symptoms should try to rest at home, reduce going out, go to public places and have close contact with others.Wear a mask scientifically;
cough
orsneezeCover your mouth and nose with paper towels or towels; Avoid sharing cups and tableware with others;Wash your hands with soap or hand sanitizer when running underwater.. Once the symptoms get worse, such as persistent high fever, palpitation and shortness of breath, you should go to the hospital in time.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  How can the public prevent human adenovirus infection?

  At present, there is no human adenovirus vaccine for the general population at home and abroad.The following measures are suggested to prevent human adenovirus infection:

  01.Epidemic period of diseaseMinimize going out.andGo to crowded and poorly ventilated places.
Place
, to avoid close contact with infected people, contact should beWear a mask scientifically, reduce the risk of respiratory infection.

  02.Develop good personal hygiene habitsWash your hands frequently and avoid touching important parts such as eyes, nose and mouth with unclean hands.

  03.Keep indoor ventilation, reduce the risk of transmission.

  04.canUse chlorine-containing disinfectantsThe environment or surface of the object contacted by human adenovirus infection
Disinfect
.

  05.Kindergarten institutions, schools and other key places should strengthen morning and afternoon inspection, absenteeism monitoring, etc., as soon as possible to find the epidemic situation, take timely measures to reduce the risk of outbreak.

  How can medical institutions prevent hospital feeling?

  01.In the epidemic season of human adenovirus, medical institutions should strengthen the control of nosocomial infection to avoid cross-infection in hospitals.

  02.Medical institutions at all levels should strengthen pre-inspection and triage, set up special consultation rooms to receive fever cases, and increase the frequency of cleaning and disinfection.

  03.The hospitalized cases of human adenovirus infection should be treated in isolation, and the medical instruments, secretions, medical waste and ward environment used by infected people should be disinfected in time.

  04.Medical staff carry out standard prevention, droplet isolation and contact transmission measures when diagnosing, treating and caring for people infected with adenovirus.

[Editor in charge:

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Implementation Opinions of Guangdong Provincial People’s Government on Accelerating the Construction of General Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Leading Place

Guangdong Provincial People’s Government on Accelerating the Construction of General Artificial Intelligence

Suggestions on the implementation of industrial innovation leading place

Yue Fu [2023] No.90


People’s governments at the local and municipal levels, departments and institutions directly under the provincial government:

  In order to implement the spirit of the series of important expositions of the Supreme Leader General Secretary on artificial intelligence, implement the decision-making arrangements of the country to develop a new generation of artificial intelligence, seize the major strategic opportunity for the development of general artificial intelligence, give full play to Guangdong’s advantages in computing infrastructure, industrial application scenarios, data elements, etc., and accelerate the construction of a leading place for industrial innovation of general artificial intelligence, we hereby put forward the following opinions.

  First, the overall goal

  By 2025, the scale of intelligent computing power will be the first in the country and the world’s leading, the innovation system of general artificial intelligence technology will be relatively complete, the high-level application scenarios of artificial intelligence will be further expanded, the scale of core industries will exceed 300 billion yuan, and the number of enterprises will exceed 2,000. Guangdong will be built into a national leading place for innovation of general artificial intelligence industry, and a national intelligent computing hub center, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Special Data Zone and national demonstration highland for scenario application will be built to form "computing power interconnection, algorithm open source and data".

  Second, build a national intelligent computing hub center

  (1) Create a general artificial intelligence computing ecology.

  Research and develop high-end training and reasoning chips with versatility and programmability, and multi-modal and multi-precision computing power chips, and explore a new architecture that integrates reconfiguration, computing and storage. Develop efficient and easy-to-use open source artificial intelligence chip compilers and tool chains and other basic software, support the adaptation of independent artificial intelligence chips and domestic general-purpose servers, and build a perfect independent controllable artificial intelligence software and hardware ecosystem. (led by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, coordinated by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Science and Technology Department, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other municipal governments at or above the prefecture level)

  (2) Building a national computing network hub node.

  Play a central role in building the "China Computing Network" and realize the interconnection of large heterogeneous computing centers such as the national public computing open innovation platform and the intelligent computing center. Promote the National Computing Power Dispatching Center and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Computing Power Dispatching Center to speed up their landing in Shenzhen and Shaoguan. Do a good job in publishing and sharing computing resources in Guangdong Province, form a significant advantage in the scale of intelligent computing power, and serve the development of the national digital economy and the major strategy of "East Counting and West Counting". (Led by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Network Information Office of the Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Government Service Data Administration, the Energy Bureau, and the municipal governments at or above the prefecture level such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shaoguan cooperate)

  (3) Build a city-level computing platform that is in line with international standards.

  Support local cities to build computing platforms in accordance with national and provincial data center planning and layout requirements, relying on research institutions, universities, leading enterprises, etc., effectively integrate computing resources in cities, integrate with the most advanced international computing products and computing frameworks, and build city-level computing scheduling platforms to achieve resource sharing and optimal allocation. Support the construction of a new generation of national artificial intelligence public computing power open innovation platform to meet the needs of scientific research and innovation. (The municipal governments at or above the local level take the lead, with the cooperation of the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, and the Government Service Data Administration)

  Third, strengthen the technical innovation ability of general artificial intelligence

  (four) to strengthen the key technology research of large model.

  Focusing on infrastructure, training algorithm, tuning and alignment, reasoning and deployment, a general large-scale artificial intelligence model with hundreds of billions of parameters is developed, and a complete technical system of autonomous and controllable large-scale model is formed. Focus on industry innovation scenarios such as intelligent economy and intelligent society, develop large vertical domain models with multi-modal data and deep integration of knowledge, and support industrial applications with multi-task and complex scenarios. (led by the Provincial Science and Technology Department, with the cooperation of relevant provincial units and municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (5) Strengthen the research on cutting-edge and common key technologies.

  Support cutting-edge and subversive technology research, carry out research in the direction of swarm intelligence, brain-like intelligence, embodied intelligence, human-computer hybrid intelligence, and strengthen the research on common key technologies such as unsupervised natural language processing, autonomous unmanned intelligence technology in groups, and artificial intelligence security technology, so as to form breakthrough and original achievements. (led by the provincial science and technology department, with the cooperation of municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (six) to strengthen the research on evaluation and guarantee technology.

  Encourage research on content generation, model evaluation, risk assessment, monitoring and early warning of general artificial intelligence, study multi-dimensional evaluation methods applicable to general artificial intelligence, and conduct research on the credibility and safety of large models to ensure the accuracy, creativity, robustness and safety of large model output. Build a digital government big model evaluation system, strengthen the application of evaluation results, and provide support for all localities, departments and industries to use big models. (led by the Provincial Government Service Data Management Bureau, supported by the Network Information Office of the Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Public Security Department, and the Communications Management Bureau, with the cooperation of municipal governments at or above the local level)

  Fourth, build a trusted data integration development zone in Greater Bay Area.

  (7) Make great efforts to build a special data zone in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

  Accelerate the construction of "Digital Bay Area" and explore the cross-border two-way circulation mechanism of data. Give full play to the policy advantages of Hengqin in Zhuhai, Qianhai in Shenzhen, Hetao in Shenzhen, Nansha in Guangzhou and other regions, explore the creation of "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Special Data Zone", and strive to open up business chains, data sharing and data circulation. Give full play to the advantages of Hong Kong and Macao’s systems and resources, establish a data circulation rule system and operation mechanism in the Bay Area, rely on the superior institutions in the Bay Area to integrate resources, build and share a trusted data circulation infrastructure, and provide services such as storage, sharing and trading for data compliance and effective circulation. Make full use of overseas high-quality data, establish a sample data fusion training mechanism, and promote the artificial intelligence innovation scene in the data special zone to try first. (Led by the Provincial Administration of Government Affairs Service Data, supported by the Network Information Office of the Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Science and Technology Department, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai and other municipal governments at or above the prefecture level)

  (8) Focus on building high-quality multimodal Chinese data sets.

  In-depth implementation of Guangdong’s second round of public data resources survey, gathering high-quality and highly available Chinese data, and carrying out public data labeling and tackling key actions. Create a common space for public and public welfare data, build an industry-oriented high-quality Chinese corpus database, and promote the collection, access, sharing, processing and use of typical industry data. Based on privacy computing, it supports the circulation security of sample data, and builds a trusted data labeling and model training environment. Encourage data circulation and trading in legally established data trading institutions, and promote cross-domain and cross-industry data integration. Build a high-quality data set and a refined labeling platform, promote the establishment of a data labeling alliance, form an industry standard for data labeling, establish a list of artificial intelligence industry data resources, pool industry data resources, and improve the scale and quality of artificial intelligence data labeling libraries. (led by the Provincial Government Service Data Management Bureau, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Provincial Science and Technology Department, and coordinated by the municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (9) Efforts should be made to improve a credible and controllable digital security system.

  Strengthen the construction of artificial intelligence endogenous security, firewalls, etc., enhance the ability of data security, establish a data classification and classification protection system, support service-providing enterprises and network service providers to develop traceability tools such as metadata tags, signatures, watermarks, etc., and do a good job in labeling. Give full play to the advantages of digital government’s basic ability of security, controllability and predictability, and improve the data monitoring, early warning and emergency response system. (led by the Network Information Office of the Provincial Party Committee, coordinated by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Public Security Department, the Government Service Data Administration and the Communications Administration, and the municipal governments at or above the local level)

  Fifth, build a general artificial intelligence industry cluster

  (10) Continuously optimize the layout of regional development.

  We will build a regional development pattern with Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the main engines, the Pearl River Delta as the core, and the cities in eastern, western and eastern Guangdong cooperating with each other. High-level construction of Guangzhou and Shenzhen National New Generation Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Experimental Zone and National Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Application Pilot Zone, with institutional mechanism reform and innovative application as the traction, exploring new development modes and paths of general artificial intelligence, and creating the forefront of industrial science and technology innovation. Support the construction of artificial intelligence headquarters and professional parks in Hetao area, and accelerate the construction of artificial intelligence and digital economy research and development industrial parks. Give full play to the advantages of industrial resources agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta region and form a number of strategic industrial clusters with international competitiveness. Support the construction of computing infrastructure in eastern and western Guangdong, and provide support for computing services in Guangdong. (led by the Provincial Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, and coordinated by the municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (eleven) continue to promote the construction of artificial intelligence industry base.

  Accelerate the strategic and overall layout of large-scale industrial clusters and professional parks. Support the existing provincial-level artificial intelligence industrial parks to improve quality and efficiency, encourage the parks to increase services in talent introduction, intellectual property protection, investment and financing, listing counseling and docking, vigorously introduce related projects, and accelerate industrial agglomeration. Relying on the carriers such as central city science and technology city, high-tech industrial park, economic and technological development zone, characteristic industrial park, characteristic town and integration of defense and civilian technologies industrial base, we will build an artificial intelligence industrial agglomeration and application demonstration park to realize cluster development. Support Shaoguan to build an artificial intelligence industrial park by relying on the data center cluster of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area national hub node of the national integrated computing network, and give full play to the advantages of computing power and production factor cost of Shaoguan computing network hub node, actively connect Guangzhou and Shenzhen, explore the construction of an artificial intelligence industrial enclave, and promote the coordinated development of artificial intelligence industry in the province. Build an "industrial number chain" and create a virtual industrial cluster with data as the core. (led by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, coordinated by the Provincial Department of Science and Technology, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shaoguan and other municipal governments at or above the prefecture level)

  (twelve) continue to cultivate leading enterprises with international competitiveness.

  Support leading enterprises to become bigger and stronger around the long-term layout of general artificial intelligence, rapidly improve the level of leading product research and development and industry empowerment, and accelerate the construction of world-class artificial intelligence enterprises. Encourage leading enterprises to build overseas R&D centers, strengthen exchanges and cooperation with foreign advantageous enterprises, and use international talents, technology and other resources to carry out offshore innovation. Accelerate the cultivation of benchmark enterprises in the artificial intelligence industry, support small and medium-sized enterprises to accelerate their development through listing, mergers and acquisitions, and build a number of leading enterprises in the field of artificial intelligence segmentation to support the development and growth of the artificial intelligence industry. (led by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, coordinated by the Provincial Department of Science and Technology and the Department of Commerce and the municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (thirteen) continue to play the leading role of artificial intelligence platform carrier.

  Give full play to the role of a number of strategic scientific and technological forces such as Pengcheng Laboratory, Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy Province, strengthen the construction of high-level innovation research institutes and new R&D institutions, actively carry out the introduction and layout of high-end innovation resources, and strengthen joint innovation with R&D institutions in Hong Kong and Macao. Strengthen the capacity building of a new generation of artificial intelligence open innovation platform, integrate the upstream and downstream resources of the industry, and increase support for advanced algorithm research, hardware product research and development, and industry application empowerment. Encourage platform institutions to cooperate with other enterprises, lower the threshold of technology and resource use, and guide more small and medium-sized enterprises and industry developers to innovate and start businesses. (led by the provincial science and technology department, with the cooperation of municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (fourteen) continue to support the innovation of software and hardware products.

  Relying on Guangdong’s advantageous industries, support key enterprises to integrate large model technology into terminal products, reconstruct system resource scheduling and various application calling methods, and create a new intelligent operating system. Support the original design and manufacturing enterprises to introduce large model technology to develop products with artificial intelligence application functions. Support software companies to strengthen the research and development of large model plug-ins, develop commercial software that integrates artificial intelligence applications, and create an "intelligent assistant+software" ecosystem. (led by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, coordinated by the Provincial Department of Science and Technology and municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (fifteen) continue to accelerate the application of technological innovation scenarios.

  Strengthen the deep integration of technology with economic, social and scientific fields, create a typical application scenario with strong instruction model, wide driving force and high display, and promote relevant enterprises and research institutions to form industry alliances. Through scene innovation, the key technologies of general artificial intelligence will be iteratively upgraded, and the continuous innovation of the interactive evolution of technology supply and scene demand will be formed, which will promote the development level of manufacturing, medical care, education, finance, scientific research and other fields. Joint leading enterprises set up a joint laboratory of government affairs model, co-ordinate the construction of a digital government artificial intelligence operation platform, and regularly publish a list of artificial intelligence scenarios. (led by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and the Government Service Data Administration, with the cooperation of relevant provincial units and municipal governments at or above the local level)

  Sixth, build a general artificial intelligence innovation ecosystem

  (sixteen) to strengthen the supporting role of technology and finance.

  Support local cities to formulate special support policies for artificial intelligence in line with regional characteristics, give play to the guiding role of policy funds such as industrial development funds and innovation and entrepreneurship funds, coordinate and integrate fund resources, and build a 100 billion-level artificial intelligence fund group. (led by Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Science and Technology Department, Industry and Information Technology Department, and coordinated by Provincial Department of Finance and Local Financial Supervision Bureau)

  (seventeen) increase the intensity of open cooperation.

  Strengthen inter-provincial cooperation, enhance industrial and innovation capabilities, and realize complementary advantages. Hold high-level forums and international conferences, and use large-scale activities such as Greater Bay Area Science Forum, Digital Bay Area Development Conference and China International Hi-tech Fair to enhance international exchanges and cooperation. Give full play to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area’s unique advantages, explore innovative modes of joint project support, joint talent training and joint capital investment with Hong Kong and Macao, form a new innovative consortium of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and explore new modes and paths of artificial intelligence development in terms of computing power supply and technology complementarity. (Led by the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the Provincial Department of Education, the Science and Technology Department, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Department of Finance, the Department of Commerce, the Government Service Data Administration, the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, and coordinated by municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (eighteen) the construction of computing algorithm trading platform.

  Integrate the computing power resources of leading enterprises’ commercial data centers, study and formulate the measurement standards of computing power resources, and classify and classify the computing power products. Guide leading enterprises to open up existing cloud computing resources, integrate and build Guangdong "AI Cloud", support the call of large models of all parties, advocate the mode of "model is product, model is service", realize customers’ selective access to different cloud resources as needed, and establish an interconnected computing power, large model and algorithm transaction service system. (led by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Government Service Data Administration, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission, and coordinated by municipal governments at or above the local level)

  VII. Safeguard measures

  (nineteen) to strengthen organizational leadership.

  Establish a collaborative promotion mechanism of Guangdong General Artificial Intelligence with the participation and coordination of relevant departments to jointly promote innovation and development. Promote the construction of high-end think tanks for general artificial intelligence, conduct research on forward-looking and strategic major issues, and provide consultation and evaluation for major decisions on innovation and development. (led by the Provincial Department of Science and Technology, coordinated by the provincial development and Reform Commission, the Education Department, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Finance Department, the Department of Commerce, and the Government Service Data Administration)

  (20) Give play to policy synergy.

  Relevant policies and measures have been introduced in tackling key problems in scientific research, building a "digital bay area" and credible products to form a multi-dimensional policy support system. Implement the flagship project of "New Generation Artificial Intelligence", accelerate the formulation of the action plan for the construction of "Digital Bay Area", study and promote the formulation of relevant laws and regulations on the supply of trusted artificial intelligence products and services, form a joint policy force, and win the initiative of strategic development. (The Provincial Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Industry and Information Technology, and the Government Service Data Administration are responsible for the division of responsibilities)

  (twenty-one) to build a high-level talent gathering place.

  Take advantage of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area’s location, speed up the introduction of global high-end talents, and optimize overseas talents’ settlement and service guarantee measures. Strengthen talent exchange and joint education with institutions of higher learning and scientific research in Hong Kong and Macao, and accelerate the cultivation of compound talents. Give play to the talent gathering role of laboratories, high-level innovation research institutes, new research and development institutions, leading enterprises and other institutions, and introduce and cultivate technical and industrial talents at all levels. Give play to the role of all kinds of innovation and entrepreneurship competitions in talent introduction and project landing, hold high-quality, high-standard artificial intelligence algorithm competitions, attract outstanding teams from all over the country, and accelerate the introduction of all kinds of innovative and entrepreneurial young talents. Improve the evaluation system of professional titles of engineering and technical personnel such as artificial intelligence and big data. (Provincial Department of Education, Department of Science and Technology, Department of Industry and Information Technology, Department of Human Resources and Social Security, and Government Service Data Administration are responsible for the division of responsibilities, with the cooperation of municipal governments at or above the local level)

  (22) Explore and create an inclusive and prudent regulatory environment.

  Explore the innovation of artificial intelligence supervision mode, implement hierarchical, classified and differentiated supervision according to different sub-sectors of artificial intelligence and specific situations such as risk level, application scenarios and scope of influence, and adopt different supervision modes for high, medium and low-risk applications. Build an artificial intelligence anti-fraud platform and strengthen the promotion of new artificial intelligence fraud. Scientific monitoring, early warning and evaluation of risks and disasters caused by general artificial intelligence technology and its application, promoting collaborative governance, and responding to various problems in the application of artificial intelligence in a timely manner. Focusing on technical ethics, employment, data privacy protection, moral awareness and other fields, we will study and formulate safety norms, carry out theoretical research, and promote the docking of international standards and participate in the formulation. (led by the Network Information Office of the Provincial Party Committee, with the cooperation of the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, the Public Security Department, the Department of Human Resources and Social Security, the Government Service Data Administration, the Communications Administration and the Market Supervision Bureau)

people’s government of guangdong province

November 3, 2023

How to solve the two "one kilometer" problems of science and technology innovation in Hangzhou universities

Some time ago, a media report triggered a heated discussion among the public-a university in Guangxi received 131 million yuan in research funding, implemented 862 research projects, and realized zero results transformation. The data comes from the list of the management and use of special funds of nine district-administered universities from 2020 to 2022 published by Guangxi Audit Office.

Hundreds of millions of scientific research funds, the conversion rate of results is 0? The huge digital contrast makes the topic of difficult transformation of scientific and technological achievements in China become the focus again.

What is behind the 0 conversion rate? For Hangzhou and universities, how to do a good job in accelerating the transformation of scientific and technological achievements?

How to calculate the account with a conversion rate of "0"

The low conversion rate of scientific research achievements has always been a "long-standing problem" in domestic universities.

Take the key output of scientific research and innovation "invention patent" as an example. According to China National Intellectual Property Administration’s Patent Investigation Report of China in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as "Report"), the implementation rate of invention patents in China universities is 16.9%, of which the industrialization rate is only 3.9%. According to a report in Beijing Daily, the conversion rate of American colleges and universities’ achievements is about 50% according to relevant research calculations. Compared with developed countries, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the ability to transform achievements in Chinese universities.

As far as the whole society is concerned, a report entitled "Analysis Report on the Transformation Prospect of Scientific and Technological Achievements in Strategic Emerging Industries" shows that only 10%-30% of China’s cutting-edge scientific and technological achievements have been applied to actual production, and only 20% of them can truly form industries. The report pointed out that in the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, the institutional and institutional obstacles of "what to turn", "how to turn" and "who will turn" still exist.

The conversion rate of scientific research achievements is 0, does it mean that the scientific research funds hit Shui Piao?

Deng Haijian, chief expert of the network education teacher studio of the Ministry of Education of Hangzhou Dianzi University, thinks that it should be dialectically viewed from three levels.

From the total amount, 131 million yuan is indeed a large number, but it is spread evenly over 862 projects, with an average of only 150,000 yuan per project. Therefore, it is inevitable that some people will vomit. These expenses may not be enough for scientific research. How to realize the transformation of results? "Of course, the accounts are not calculated in this way. The projects are heavy and light, and the budget is large and small. What we have to focus on are those projects that should have been transformed but the results have not been transformed."

Judging from the standard of measuring scientific research work in colleges and universities, the conversion rate of achievements is not the only standard. There are many kinds of scientific research, which can be divided into basic research, application, technology development and so on. "Basic research is not about transformation, or it can’t be considered by transformation. Therefore, when evaluating scientific research, it is necessary to classify and analyze specific problems. What needs serious accountability should be a project that was originally directed at transformation, but the result was to fish in troubled waters. "

Deng Haijian feels that from the perspective of researchers themselves, we must be highly alert to this set of figures. "The urgent task is to do pragmatic scientific research, not to do scientific research for scientific research, or to do scientific research for topics, but to do more scientific research projects closely related to people’s lives and production."

The road to science and technology innovation in colleges and universities is difficult in two key "one kilometer"

What are the reasons why scientific and technological achievements are difficult to get out of the ivory tower? Perhaps it can be analyzed from the relationship between "scientific research", "scientific and technological innovation" and "innovation and entrepreneurship"

Professor Zhang Yu, Executive Dean of School of Life and Health Sciences, Hangzhou Institute of Advanced Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Hangzhou High Court, National University of Science and Technology), has been deeply involved in scientific research for many years. In her view, the whole science and technology innovation chain can be compared to three stages-

"Scientific research" is like a process from 0 to 1, "scientific and technological innovation" is from 1 to 100, and "innovation and entrepreneurship" is constantly expanding from 100 to 10000. On the surface, the whole process seems to be the relationship between "scientific research" at the forefront and "innovation and entrepreneurship" at the end, which is separate. "But to maintain a long-term virtuous circle, the whole chain is mutually reinforcing, and all three links are inseparable from the practical exploration of related industries."

Zhang Yu’s point of view has been recognized by another senior researcher, Professor Yang Wei, Dean of the Institute of Basic Medical Innovation of Zhejiang University. He vividly compared the relationship between the three to three intertwined rings. "The three overlap and influence each other. It is not so much a science and technology chain, but actually more like a Ke Zhang network. A net, a chess game, a careless game will lose. "

If the relationship between the three is clarified, the crux can be found.

During the two sessions of the National People’s Congress this year, "scientific research" was frequently mentioned and became a hot topic. Liu Qiang, member of Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and member of the Standing Committee of 301 Science and Technology Committees of China Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology, said: "China’s scientific and technological circles are facing a relatively prominent common problem, that is, the original and leading scientific and technological research results are insufficient."

The source innovation ability is insufficient, and the "from 0 to 1" is lacking. The "first mile" on Kechuang Road has a difficult start. This difficulty also makes other institutions and units in the chain feel helpless. In a media interview, Hu Xiaowei, general manager of Paifu Intellectual Property Investment and Operation Company, pointed out: "There may be hundreds of colleges and universities working on the same subject and in the same direction, but the things they make are very general. The source is not good, how to transform it? "

Not only that, but the "last mile" problem on Kechuang Road has attracted more and more attention. Academician Shi Yigong, President of West Lake University, once said to the media: "The last straw to crush camels is to encourage scientists to start businesses."

It is understood that technology transfer and transformation needs compound professionals with backgrounds in intellectual property, law, management and industry, but there has been a lack of professionals and service institutions in this field in China. Colleges and universities are subject to institutional mechanisms and lack such talents. Most colleges and universities are responsible for transfer and transformation management, and most of them are part-time.

Will this source innovation incubation model bring "ice-breaking" effect?

Faced with the "two kilometers" problem, some forces are seeking a breakthrough.

In 2019, a brand-new innovative incubation model of medicine source was born in the Institute of Basic Medical Innovation of Zhejiang University. The Institute, jointly established by Zhejiang University and Hangzhou Linping Economic and Technological Development Zone, is an innovative platform led by basic medical disciplines and aimed at transforming the source of high-level original academic achievements.

Dean Yang Wei introduced that under the pressure of "generic drugs come quickly", "follow-up innovation" and "lack of innovative drugs with the first target", the institute focused on the field of biomedical source innovation and strived to incubate several innovative drugs and new medical devices with the first target in the world in China.

In other words, the first thing that the institute solves is the "first mile" problem of medical innovation. Therefore, a special incubation fund for innovative medicine is set up every year to collect high-level research results with transformation value for universities, scientific research institutions and medical institutions. At present, four rounds of global solicitation for innovative scientific research projects have been completed, and more than 100 million yuan of incubation funds have been invested to provide industrial incubation funds for more than 50 selected projects from Peking University, Zhejiang University, Xiamen University and China Pharmaceutical University. "Even if the result is only a paper, as long as it has the value of medical innovation and transformation, we are willing to give it the first bucket of help." Yang Wei told reporters.

In the "last mile" of the transformation of scientific research achievements, the institute also provided a new model-the "housekeeper" of the whole project. To put it simply, it is to let "professionals do professional things" and equip each project with a project management team, which is composed of project leaders, project management department personnel and industry experts in related fields, to control the progress of project implementation throughout the process and provide multi-level and three-dimensional results transformation services such as intellectual property consultation, commercialization strategy, project investment and financing docking, cooperation and docking of pharmaceutical companies, and assisting enterprises in industrial and commercial registration. At present, the Institute has successfully landed nine funded projects in project companies, and is promoting the incubation in a market-oriented way, and it is expected that 8-9 will land in the near future.

The reporter learned that among the top 50 universities that have entered the contract value of scientific and technological achievements transformation for five consecutive years, Zhejiang University has always ranked second in the country. Linping District regards biomedicine as one of the three leading industries and anchors the goal of "80 billion biomedical industry cluster". "Our ultimate goal is to become a world-class platform for incubating the results of medical sources, incubating the world’s first innovative target drugs for major disease interventions, medical devices and diagnostic products with independent property rights, helping the high-quality development of Linping biomedical industry and contributing to Zhejiang’s biomedical industry highland." Yang Wei also expressed the hope that the incubation model of the research institute can play more exemplary and leading roles in the innovation field of domestic pharmaceutical sources.

How much money did the person who charged VVIP for The Singer spend?

Text | Zinc Scale Meng Huiyuan

Editor | Li Jinlin

Due to the sudden explosion of the content of the first live broadcast of Singer 2024, in order to get the first-hand news, some "fun people" borrowed from relatives and friends to get a membership account, some searched all kinds of free broadcast channels, and some paid a huge annual subscription fee for sneak peek …

In the splash caused by Mango Taiwan, various members of the video platform "routines" are presented to consumers again: "You are a VIP—SVIP—-full-screen member, why don’t you have a SVIP again, forcing me to watch pirated apps?" "VIP can’t upgrade SVIP, full-screen has no SVIP rights, and SVIP can’t be used on TV." "Svip doesn’t have a coupon for 28 yuan for one month, so what is my membership with one year left?

According to the zinc scale, not only the video members of "Mango Taiwan" are criticized by users, but also there are "VVIP problems" including fitness, making friends, audio and other apps. Even the office software WPS has recently attracted a lot of attention because of the "doll-style" charging, which can not help but make people sigh. "The leek is not as fast as the’ routine’ of membership charging."

The program is on fire, but the membership rights are full of routines.

I recall the last time I watched the variety show "I am a singer", when Yue Lin was still in college. Yue Lin still remembers what a novel viewing experience the TV set in the dormitory was less than 20 inches at that time. "You don’t know how shocked everyone was when G.E.M. sang" Bubble ".As soon as this’ unknown’ singer opened his mouth, the sisters in the whole dormitory were quiet."

And once again pay attention to this program, Yue Lin is already a senior worker of an Internet company. Yue Lin’s mind was constantly filled with all kinds of tricks on the Internet when she brushed the relevant information on the short video platform, from "Fifty-year-old Taishouguo" to "Adventures of Eiko" to "Singer 2024", which made Lei Jun win the first place in the UC users’ list, all of which made her regain her interest in the program.

After brushing a lot of CUT videos and thinking that she had finished the homework of the first live broadcast, Yue Lin turned on the projector in her small rental house on Friday night, ready to watch the much-anticipated "World War II" in an immersive way, but what she didn’t expect was that the first step of watching the program stumped her. "You have to be a full-screen member to watch the full version, but my account only has VIP."

Because she usually shares her account with her family, Yue Lin has almost never paid attention to the charging of related services before. "Besides, I seldom watch TV dramas on video websites, and most of them are short videos and free videos in bilibili.". Lin Yue only knew when she asked, the current video VIP service is so crazy. "What a breakup can watch, what a TV can watch, and what a screen can watch is all-round money. Then I might as well wait to watch those free CUT and live videos. Anyway, this time "Singer 2024" is not out of the circle because of how beautiful the song stage itself is. "

In fact, in order to watch the follow-up, netizens collectively dispatched and found many channels for free live broadcast resources. In Little Red Book, some bloggers posted strategies, such as "You can see if the points on the apps operated by various communication companies are enough to redeem Mango VIP", "Central Video APP and Learning Power APP can watch Hunan Satellite TV live broadcast for free" and "Anyone who doesn’t have Mango members can give me YouTube, with music single exclusive version and live version (with advertisements) free of charge" and so on.

And all this, it is difficult to separate it from the changes in the membership rights of Mango TV. Previously, with the launch of Mango TV’s SVIP service, there were many complaints from the voice of users: "Why do you still have to open SVIP?" "Is your full-screen member not worthy to be SVIP?" "My full-screen members can’t watch SVIP, and now one more function than ordinary VIP is TV playing, which is still the most expensive" …

It is worth noting that some users who want to go to the scene to "eat melons" found that the registration interface of the movie-watching activities of Singer 2024 also graded the members: the offline interactive rights and interests of Mango TV members include "register immediately (V1+)" and "SVIP registration", and stated that the latter is "more likely". In this regard, some netizens have commented, "Of course, we must find ways to make money. This kind of heat is not something you want."

The coverage of "VVIP" is wider than expected.

In fact, just recently, the well-known office software WPS also caused a lot of users’ dissatisfaction because of the "doll-style" charging problem.

According to China Voice "News Horizon" of China Central Radio and Television General Station, members, svip, svip Pro, AI members, big members … Many netizens reported that WPS, the Jinshan office software, had some problems such as arbitrarily modifying the membership level and "doll-like" fees, and some users said that the WPS membership structure was complex, and its members’ "routines" were suspected of infringing consumers’ right to know and choose.

Zinc Scale understands that the cause of this incident is the AI function launched by WPS, which limits the use of this function by the svip Pro that I purchased before. If I want to continue to use this new function, I must pay separately to become an AI member or a big member.

In response to the user’s question that "it is necessary to charge separately for launching a function", the relevant person in charge of WPS said: "It is a kind of welfare for member users to use AI function before, and now the welfare period has arrived. In March 2024, WPS AI began to be commercialized, with a relatively large investment. As a brand-new membership service, WPAI members are still in the gray scale test and belong to the paid upgrade option. Users can choose by themselves. If they choose not to upgrade, the original membership rights will not be affected. "

In addition, the market is full of more services that consumers have identified as "doll-style" charges. After searching for black cat complaints, zinc scale found that there are "VVIP problems" in many industry categories, such as fitness, making friends and audio.

For example, a consumer who complained about the dating APP "Love of Ivy League" said, "After opening a member, you have to rush gold coins again to send a small note, and members can only send one a day"; A user who complained about the fitness APP "Tough Guy Fitness" wrote, "I originally wanted to buy a personal customization plan. As a result, I had to pay 168 yuan before logging in. I also marked 7 yuan every month, and it was a very small month in 168/24. I thought that this was personal customization. After I paid it, I found that it was a member’s money, and I had to pay for personal customization." Another consumer who complained about the audio APP "Himalaya" said, "In the past, members could listen to it, but now they have to pay separately for members and children members, so they can’t be universal" …

After combing, consumers’ dissatisfaction with the "doll-style" charging model is mainly concentrated in the following four aspects:

One is that the charging system is too complicated. Some softwares provide a wide range of membership types with different functions and validity periods, which makes it difficult for consumers to understand and choose the membership service that suits them. This complexity increases the difficulty of consumers’ decision-making, and sometimes they even make wrong consumption decisions because they don’t know the specific service content.

Secondly, the functions are duplicated and crossed. There are overlapping functions between different levels of membership services, which makes it difficult for consumers to judge which member is most suitable for them, and may also lead to waste of resources;

Third, there will be additional costs. When consumers want to get a specific function, the platform may ask them to pay extra fees, which is regarded as a "doll" charging model, which makes consumers feel cheated;

The fourth is the change of membership level and rights and interests. Some platform parties may change the membership level and rights at will, especially cancel the promised functions and ask consumers to pay again, which undermines consumers’ trust in the platform.

To put it more bluntly, what makes consumers dissatisfied is not the membership service purchased for the convenience of using software functions, but the fact that they don’t want to be bypassed by all kinds of fancy and endless membership types and functions, and spend more money.

Clear rules, lightning protection consumption "trap" from the source

With the WPS "doll-style" charging incident being exposed in a large number during this period, rectifying similar consumption "traps" has also attracted widespread attention and attention inside and outside the industry.

Chen Yinjiang, Deputy Secretary-General of china law society Consumer Protection Law Research Association, said: "Once consumers buy, they can’t arbitrarily change the membership fees, reduce the service quality or reduce the service items. I think these behaviors are all breach of contract. It should really attract the attention of relevant enterprises. We must remind consumers of some information in the charging standards that is of great interest to consumers in a significant way, so that consumers can fully know the content and charging standards of membership services and protect consumers’ right to know and choose. "

In fact, there are many legal systems in China that provide protection for consumers’ right to fair trade and independent choice. For example, according to the Consumer Protection Law, operators "may not use standard terms and use technical means to force transactions". The price law clearly points out that operators "shall not use false or misleading price means to trick consumers or other operators into trading with them".

It is noteworthy that the State Administration of Radio and Television recently announced the complaint channels for controlling the charging and complicated operation of TV "Taowa". That is to say, the State Administration of Radio and Television has carried out special rectification, in order to standardize the "pay TV" system and strengthen the regulatory review according to law for the legal compliance of opening members and collecting fees.

The announcement mentioned that "with the strong support of the broad masses of the people and relevant departments, the State Administration of Radio and Television has actively solved the problems of’ watching TV is difficult and annoying’ and has made progress in stages. In order to better listen to the opinions and suggestions of the people, and further consolidate and improve the results of the work of managing TV’ Taowa’ fees and complicated operations, the State Administration of Radio and Television announced the complaint channels for users of’ double governance’. "

Of course, the "VVIP problem" not only depends on the strong supervision of laws and regulations, but also belongs to the platform itself that provides member charging services. Although the "doll-style" charging can bring a lot of benefits to the platform in the short term, "harvesting" consumers in this way is more likely to damage the reputation and credibility of the platform in the long run, and will also reduce the trust and satisfaction of users, which will eventually lead consumers to vote with their feet and choose to abandon. For the platform side, it should take action to balance short-term interests and long-term development.

As far as the result is concerned, although the platform party has the right to set its own price, what they should at least do is to ensure that all charging items are open and transparent, and consumers can clearly know which services they are paying for; Ensure that the services provided match the fees charged, and avoid overcharging or hidden fees; Provide users with detailed information about services to help them understand the value and necessity of various services; Set reasonable charging standards to avoid frequent changes, so as to avoid confusion or dissatisfaction among consumers; Actively listen to users’ opinions and suggestions, and adjust the charging strategy in time to meet users’ needs.

After all, only by delineating the boundaries of services first can the charges become fairer and more transparent.

Highlights of the announcement on the evening of April 25th: The net profit of Kweichow Moutai in the first quarter was 20.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.59%.

  On the evening of April 25th, a number of listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen issued announcements for investors’ reference:

  Major events > > >

  Universal Scientific Industrial Co.,Ltd.: Invested 60 million US dollars in the Mexican factory of its subsidiary for the construction of new factory projects.

  () It was announced in the evening that according to the development plan of the wholly-owned subsidiary Universal Scientific Industrial de Mé xico S.A.de C.V. (hereinafter referred to as "Mexico Factory") and the customer’s demand, the company plans to build a second factory in Tonala, near the Mexican factory. In 2022, the Mexican factory completed the land purchase of the new factory and signed a construction contract. The total investment of the new factory is 67.498 million US dollars. The company plans to raise 60 million US dollars (equivalent to 412 million yuan) to increase the capital of the Mexican factory through its wholly-owned subsidiary Huanhong Electronics Co., Ltd.. This capital increase for the new factory project in Mexico will help to take advantage of Mexico’s geographical advantages, increase production capacity to meet the needs of North American customers, improve the operation scale and production efficiency of the Mexican factory, enhance its profitability and market competitiveness, and consolidate and enhance its position in the industry. At the same time, the company disclosed a quarterly report, and achieved operating income of 12.998 billion yuan in the first quarter, down 6.85% year-on-year; The net profit was 277 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.79%; The basic earnings per share is 0.13 yuan.

  Xinhuadu: It is estimated that the total amount of daily related transactions with Alibaba Group in 2023 will not exceed 828 million yuan.

  () It was announced in the evening that the total amount of daily related party transactions between the company and Alibaba Group in 2023 will not exceed 828 million yuan, and the total amount of daily related party transactions between the company and Alibaba Group in January-April 2024 will not exceed 330 million yuan.

  Shaanxi Energy: It is planned to invest 500 million yuan to establish an integrated joint venture company with Yuneng Group.

  () Announced in the evening, the company plans to cooperate with Yuneng Group to set up an integrated joint venture company to plan, construct and operate the supporting power supply project of Shaanxi Power Transmission and Henan Power Transmission Project in an integrated way of scenery, fire and storage, and to start the preliminary work of Zhao Shi Pan Power Plant Phase II (2×1000MW) project and Hengshan Power Plant Phase II (2×1000MW) project in advance. The registered capital of the joint venture company is 1 billion yuan, and the company has subscribed to contribute 500 million yuan, holding 50% of the shares.

  Century Tianhong: At present, the company does not have the related technology of artificial intelligence big model.

  () Announced the change, the company does not have the technology related to artificial intelligence big model for the time being, and has not carried out the training of artificial intelligence bottom big model at present, and has not generated relevant income.

  China Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.: Doxycycline hydrochloride for drug injection of its subsidiary passed the consistency evaluation of generic drugs.

  () It was announced in the evening that its subsidiary, Hainan General Kangli Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., received a Notice of Approval for Supplementary Application of Doxycycline Hydrochloride for Injection approved and issued by National Medical Products Administration, and the drug passed the consistency evaluation of generic drug quality and efficacy. Doxycycline hydrochloride for injection is a tetracycline antibiotic, which is suitable for infections caused by various microorganisms, gram-negative bacteria and gram-positive bacteria. According to the third-party database PDB, the sales of this product in domestic sample hospitals in 2022 was about 11.87 million yuan, and the sales of Kangli Pharmaceutical in 2022 was about 2.46 million yuan (unaudited).

  China Kechuan: At present, it has not invested in generating artificial intelligence related business.

  () Disclosure of serious abnormal fluctuations in stock trading The announcement stated that the company has not invested in the business related to generative artificial intelligence at present. The company has not found other mainstream media reports about our company that may have a significant impact on our stock trading price.

  Performance > > >

  Kweichow Moutai: The net profit in the first quarter was 20.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.59%.

  () Announcement, the net profit in the first quarter was 20.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.59%.

  Yiling Pharmaceutical: The net profit in the first quarter increased by 148.29% year-on-year.

  () Announcement, the net profit in the first quarter of 2023 was 1.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 148.29%; In 2022, the net profit was 2.36 billion yuan, up 75.75% year-on-year, and it is planned to send 10 schools to 5 yuan.

  Zhongke Shuguang: Net profit in the first quarter increased by 19.92% year-on-year

  () Announcement, the operating income in the first quarter was 2.298 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.39%; The net profit was 131 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.92%; The basic earnings per share is 0.09 yuan.

  Renhe Pharmaceutical: In 2022, the net profit decreased by 13.62% year-on-year, and it is planned to send 10 2 yuan.

  () The annual report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in 2022 was 5.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%; The net profit was 574 million yuan, down 13.62% year-on-year; The basic earnings per share is 0.41 yuan; The company plans to distribute a cash bonus of 2 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.

  Tianlong shares: the net profit in 2022 increased by 25.4% year-on-year.

  () The annual report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in 2022 was 1.254 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.87%; The net profit was 123 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%; The basic earnings per share is 0.62 yuan; The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.3 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. At the same time, the company announced that Zhejiang Antai Holding Group Co., Ltd., which holds 48.35% of the shares, and Zhang Yihua, which holds 10.17% of the shares, intend to reduce the shares of the company by no more than 3,977,700 shares and 7,955,400 shares respectively, that is, no more than 2% and 4% of the company’s current total share capital respectively.

  Xinhuanet: In 2022, the net profit increased by 15.03% year-on-year, and it is planned to send 10 yuan to 1.87 yuan.

  () The annual report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in 2022 was 1.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.56%; The net profit was 242 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.03%; The basic earnings per share is 0.47 yuan; The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.87 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.

  YTO Express: In 2022, the net profit increased by 86.35% year-on-year, and it is planned to send 10 2.5 yuan.

  () The annual report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in 2022 was 53.539 billion yuan, up by 18.57% year-on-year; The net profit was 3.92 billion yuan, up 86.35% year-on-year; The basic earnings per share is 1.14 yuan; The company plans to pay a dividend of 2.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares. At the same time, the company disclosed a quarterly report, and achieved operating income of 12.914 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 9.19% year-on-year; The net profit was 906 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%; The basic earnings per share is 0.26 yuan. The increase in net profit during the reporting period was mainly due to the increase in express delivery business.

  Rongjie Health: The net profit in the first quarter was 11.1895 million yuan, up 116.73% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 158 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.43%; The net profit was 11.1895 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 116.73%; The basic earnings per share is 0.01 yuan.

  Digital authentication: the net profit in the first quarter was 3,162,300 yuan, up 51.21% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 165 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.12%; The net profit was 3,162,300 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.21%; The basic earnings per share is 0.01 yuan.

  Xinyuanwei: Net profit in the first quarter increased by 103.55% year-on-year.

  Xinyuanwei disclosed a quarterly report in the evening, and achieved an operating income of 288 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 56.89%; The net profit was 65,977,400 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103.55%; The basic earnings per share is 0.71 yuan. During the reporting period, the prosperity of the semiconductor equipment industry continued, and the company’s revenue scale continued to grow; The company’s sales revenue increased and the tax refund for embedded software products increased.

  Degut: The net profit in the first quarter was 20,421,100 yuan, up 278.03% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 91,451,500 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.73%; The net profit was 20,421,100 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 278.03%; The basic earnings per share is 0.14 yuan.

  Paineng Technology: The net profit in the first quarter was 462 million yuan, up 355.86% year-on-year.

  Paineng Technology disclosed a quarterly report in the evening, and realized an operating income of 1.841 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 126.07%; The net profit was 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.86%; The basic earnings per share is 2.74 yuan. During the reporting period, the sales volume of the company’s products increased significantly compared with the same period of last year; At the same time, the increase in sales price and the optimization of product structure have brought about a substantial increase in operating income.

  CNOOC Development: Net profit in the first quarter increased by 37.25% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 9.538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.37%; The net profit was 413 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%; The basic earnings per share is 0.04 yuan.

  Consistent with national medicine: the net profit in the first quarter was 362 million yuan, up 43.53% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 18.687 billion yuan, up 8.96% year-on-year; The net profit was 362 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.53%; The basic earnings per share is 0.85 yuan. In this period, the sales scale will be expanded, and the business structure will be optimized to achieve an increase in gross profit margin and drive profit growth.

  Wind language building: the net profit in the first quarter was 44,116,900 yuan, up 379.49% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 422 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.78%; The net profit was 44,116,900 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 379.49%; The basic earnings per share is 0.07 yuan. The increase in net profit was mainly due to the increase in completed projects in this period.

  North Beijing: The net profit in the first quarter was 61.2916 million yuan, up 152.59% year-on-year.

  () Revealing a quarterly report in the evening, achieving an operating income of 1 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 20.05%; The net profit was 61,291,600 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 152.59%; The basic earnings per share is 0.19 yuan. This year, the business has fully returned to normal and the company’s business scale has continued to grow.

  Sinopharm Hyundai: Net profit in the first quarter increased by 130.87% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 3.417 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.33%; The net profit was 179 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.87%; The basic earnings per share is 0.15 yuan. During the reporting period, the increase in sales of some key APIs and preparation products led to a year-on-year increase in revenue of 5.33%; The company actively complied with the implementation of various medical reform policies, continuously optimized the marketing model, actively promoted quality improvement and efficiency improvement, and reasonably controlled various costs and expenses. The three expense rates decreased by 5.45 percentage points year on year.

  Seven wolves: the net profit in the first quarter was 88.9743 million yuan, up 96.63% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 909 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.75%; The net profit was 88.9743 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.63%; The basic earnings per share is 0.13 yuan.

  Shuanghui development: the net profit in the first quarter was 1.488 billion yuan, up 1.9% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 15.666 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.83%; The net profit was 1.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%; The basic earnings per share is 0.43 yuan.

  Aimeike: The net profit in the first quarter was 414 million yuan, up 51.17% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 630 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.30%; The net profit was 414 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.17%; The basic earnings per share is 1.91 yuan.

  Yiwei lithium energy: the net profit in the first quarter was 1.14 billion yuan, up 118.68% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 11.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.11%; The net profit was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 118.68%; The basic earnings per share is 0.56 yuan. On the same day, the company announced that it plans to use its own funds of no more than US$ 228 million to increase the capital of its subsidiary Yiwei Asia Co., Ltd. for Yiwei Asia’s capital contribution to its joint venture company Hua Fei Nickel Cobalt (Indonesia) Co., Ltd. in accordance with the Joint Venture Agreement of Indonesia Huayu Nickel Cobalt Laterite Nickel Mine Wet Smelting Project.

  Shanghai Electric: The net profit in the first quarter was 367 million yuan, up 2,802.32% year on year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the net profit in the first quarter was 367 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2802.32%; The basic earnings per share is 0.02 yuan. During the reporting period, by strengthening cost control, the gross profit margin of some subordinate enterprises increased compared with the same period of last year; At the same time, benefiting from the economic recovery, the investment income and fair value change income in this period increased compared with the same period of last year.

  Huada Gene: The net profit in the first quarter was 41.3488 million yuan, down 87.49% year-on-year.

  () A quarterly report was disclosed in the evening, and the operating income in the first quarter was 954 million yuan, down 33.31% year-on-year; The net profit was 41.3488 million yuan, down 87.49% year-on-year; The basic earnings per share is 0.09 yuan. During the reporting period, the net profit decreased year-on-year, mainly due to the end of the global public health incident and the fading of the surge in market demand for related businesses at home and abroad. At the same time, after the contraction of unconventional business, the related cost adjustment will take a certain period, and the company will continue to strengthen internal lean management, optimize the organizational structure, and reduce marketing expenses.

  Increase or decrease holding > > >

  Xin Pengwei: The big fund plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 2%.

  Xinpengwei announced that the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 2%.

  Advanced Datacom: Shareholder Han Yanying intends to reduce 1.49% of the company’s shares.

  () It was announced in the evening that Han Yanying, a shareholder holding 1.49% of the shares, plans to reduce his holding of 4,596,400 shares of the Company (accounting for 1.49% of the total share capital of the Company).

  Zhibang Home Furnishing: Anhui Jinzhi Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. plans to reduce its shareholding by no more than 1%.

  () It was announced in the evening that Anhui Jinzhi Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., a shareholder holding 2.57% of the shares, intends to reduce the company’s shares by centralized bidding or block trading, with a total of no more than 3,118,200 shares, accounting for 1% of the total share capital.

  Sign a big bill > > >

  Otway: Obtained the bid-winning notice of Longji Green Energy Component Project.

  Aotewei announced in the evening that the company has obtained the bid-winning notice of "() Technology Co., Ltd. Component Project", with a total bid-winning amount of about 310 million yuan (the specific amount is subject to the officially signed contract). The impact of the winning project on the performance in 2023 is uncertain, which will have a positive impact on the company’s operating performance in 2024.

  Xiangdian shares: jointly won the bid of 209 million yuan.

  () Announced in the evening, the company and () Nanjing Control System Co., Ltd. became the winning bidders for the procurement project of synchronous motors, frequency conversion devices and ancillary equipment of water source pumping stations of Yunnan Central Water Diversion Project, with the winning bid amount of 209 million yuan, and the planned delivery date is from the third quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2025.

Haiguang Information was investigated by six organizations: the company’s products include Haiguang General Processor (CPU) and Haiguang Co-processor (DCU). The CPU products have a high contribution t

  Haiguang Information released the record form of investor relations activities on September 20th, and the company was investigated by six institutions on September 20th, 2023. The types of institutions are fund companies and securities companies. The main contents of investor relations activities are introduced:

  Q: Please briefly introduce the basic situation of the company and its operation in the first half of the year.

  A: As one of the few integrated circuit design enterprises in China with the R&D capability of high-end general-purpose processor (CPU) and coprocessor (DCU), the company has always focused on R&D, design and sales of high-end processors used in computing and storage devices such as servers and workstations, and established a perfect R&D environment and process for high-end processors. The product performance has been improved from generation to generation and its functions have been continuously enriched. In the first half of 2023, the company achieved steady development in performance level, R&D capability, ecological expansion and intellectual property accumulation. In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 2.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.24%; The net profit of returning to the mother was 677 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.35%.

  Q: Recently, the tenders for servers of enterprises have been continuously opened. May I ask the company whether it has seen the recovery of the industry prosperity in the second half of the year?

  A: In the long run, with the acceleration of digital transformation, the promotion of localization policy, the continuous innovation and upgrading of technology and the increase of market demand, the domestic server market has a good development trend. In the second half of the year, operators, finance, energy and other industries will issue purchasing demand one after another, and the overall demand of the industry will improve compared with the first half of the year.

  Q: What is the shipping share of DCU and CPU products in the company’s products? Does the company clearly feel that the demand for AI chips has increased significantly?

  A: The company’s products include Sea Light General Processor (CPU) and Sea Light Co-processor (DCU). The CPU products have a high contribution to the company’s operating income, and the operating income of DCU products is increasing. Under the background of the sustained and rapid development of AIGC, the artificial intelligence application scenarios closely integrated with business have gradually landed, and enterprises with advanced algorithms and powerful computing power have become the main promoters. Haiguang CPU is one of the chips with the best ecological compatibility at present, which can fully meet the needs of the commercial market; Haiguang DCU is compatible with "CUDA" ecology, and it is well adapted to most domestic and foreign mainstream large models, such as ERNIE Bot. Relying on DCU, the comprehensive application of large models such as LLaMa, GPT, Bloom, ChatGLM, Wudao and Zidong Taichu can be realized, and DCU has reached the leading level in China in terms of large model ecology.

  Q: We see that Shenshu II has been released and Shenshu III is still under development. What is the progress of Shenshu II equivalent to Shenshu I?

  A: The deep computing series of Haiguang DCU is a kind of GPGPU. It adopts a "CUDA-like" general parallel computing architecture, which can better adapt to the mainstream international commercial computing software and artificial intelligence software, and its product performance has reached the leading position in China. Shenshu No.2 has been released and commercialized. Shenshu No.2 has been commercialized in the fields of big data processing, artificial intelligence, commercial computing, etc. It has full-precision floating-point data and various common integer data computing capabilities, and its performance has doubled compared with Shenshu No.1.. The research and development of Shenshu No.3 is progressing smoothly.

  Q: How is the DCU of the company different from other friends?

  A: The company’s DCU products choose the technical route of GPGPU and the "CUDA-like" ecology, which is the best. It is a rare GPGPU product with full-precision floating-point data and various common integer data computing capabilities in China, which can support large-scale applications of scientific computing and artificial intelligence accelerated computing at the same time. At present, it is mainly deployed in server clusters or data centers, providing computing power with high performance and energy efficiency ratio for applications and supporting data processing tasks with high complexity and high throughput.

  Q: Have Internet companies started purchasing the company’s DCU products?

  A: In the Internet field, the company’s DCU products have been certified by Internet companies such as Baidu and Ali, and a joint plan has been launched to build a full-stack AI infrastructure integrating software and hardware in China. The company continues to be optimistic about the development prospects in this field, and will actively seize market opportunities, increase R&D investment in this field, make full use of the company’s R&D achievements in high-end processors, break through the key technologies of Haiguang R&D, improve the ecosystem, and strive to further expand the in-depth application of Haiguang processors in the Internet industry.

  Q: According to the bid opening information of CITIC Bank’s server procurement, the share of domestic ARM chips is higher than that of domestic X86 chips. How does the company view the prospects of various technical routes?

  A: CITIC Bank is a new breakthrough user of the company’s products, and the company’s share in this user has increased significantly year-on-year. With the rapid development of mobile internet and artificial intelligence, there is an increasing demand for chips with high versatility, low power consumption and high performance. Both domestic ARM route and domestic X86 route have their own technical advantages. Throughout the development history of integrated circuits, excellent product ecology and rich industrial ecology are particularly important. Haiguang CPU is compatible with X86 instruction set, and its processor performance parameters are excellent. It supports mainstream operating systems, databases, virtualization platforms or cloud computing platforms at home and abroad. It can effectively be compatible with millions of existing system software and application software based on X86 instruction set, and has excellent ecosystem advantages. At the same time, Haiguang CPU has a high-quality upstream and downstream industrial chain, and its products have been widely recognized by domestic industry users. It has reached strategic cooperation with many well-known domestic server manufacturers and developed a variety of servers based on Haiguang processors, which can provide customers with high-quality services and guarantees, effectively promoting the commercial development of Haiguang high-end processors.

  Q: May I ask the company’s shareholding reduction since August 14th? How many shareholders who have lifted the ban have not sold?

  A: Please pay attention to the relevant announcements of the company in time for the specific details of shareholder reduction. The company will actively expand its business, do a good job, improve its performance and give back to shareholders;

  Details of participating institutions are as follows:

Name of participating unit Category of participating units Name of participants Shangyin fund Fund company — Agricultural bank of China Huili Fund company — Bodo fund Fund company — Minsheng Jiayin Fund company — sealand securities securities company — Zheshang securities securities company —

Good morning! The world, the United States and Europe announced "devastating" sanctions against Russia; Being abused by Biden, Putin responded with ridicule.

Biden announced more than 500 new sanctions against Russia.

According to a number of foreign media reports, according to the news released by the White House website on February 23, US President Biden announced in a statement on the same day that more than 500 new sanctions were imposed on Russia in response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the death of Russian opposition figure Navalny.

It is reported that the sanctions are mainly aimed at Mill payment system, Russian financial institutions and their military industrial bases, as well as future energy production and other fields. According to the US Treasury Department, this is the "largest sanctions action" by the United States against Russia since Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

The European Union and Britain have also joined the new round of sanctions against Russia. Acting Deputy Secretary of State victoria nuland declared that the new sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and the European Union would be "devastating" and would create obstacles for Russia to evade the existing sanctions.

Being abused by Biden, Putin responded with ridicule.

In response to the swearing abuse by US President Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to reporters: "This shows that Biden is more suitable to be the president of the United States."

It is reported that Biden made rude remarks to Putin at a fund-raising event in San Francisco on the 21st local time, saying that "there are’ crazy bastards’ like Putin in the world, so that we always have to worry about nuclear conflicts".

Reuters said that on 22nd, when asked about Biden’s rude remarks by Russian state television, Putin first smiled sarcastically, bit his lip, and then looked at the ground. Later, Putin said with a smile: "When we talked not long ago, you asked me who we would prefer to be the future president of the United States for Russia. I said that we are ready to cooperate with any American president. But I think Biden is a more suitable American president for Russia. Judging from his remarks now, I think this is absolutely correct. "

The fake video of "Yin Xiyue’s Confession" went viral on social media.

A number of Korean media reported on the 23rd that a fake video about "South Korean President Yin Xiyue sincerely repents" recently went viral on Facebook, Instagram and other social media. The video showed that "Yin Xiyue" said that he was "addicted to the idea of breaking away from common sense, which ruined the Republic of Korea and made the people suffer".

In this regard, after the police proposed, the Korea Broadcasting and Communication Review Committee decided to ask social media to delete this video. Kim Soo-kyung, spokesman of the South Korean President’s Office, said on the 23rd that the South Korean President’s Office plans to take a tough approach to such false videos in the future.

The US judge ruled that Trump was fined $454 million for civil fraud.

On February 23, local time, US judge Arthur Ngoron formally ruled that former US President Trump was fined $454 million for civil fraud, including a fine of $355 million and interest of nearly $100 million. According to reports, Trump has one month to pay the fine and appeal the verdict.

On February 16th, a judge in New York State ruled on Trump’s civil fraud case. Because Trump exaggerated his net worth by billions of dollars, which constituted a serious fraud, the judge ruled that Trump should be fined more than 350 million dollars, permanently banned from entering the real estate industry in new york, and greatly restricted his ability to conduct business in the state. In addition, the judge also ruled that Trump’s two sons, Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump, should be banned for five years.

American private enterprise develops spacecraft to land on the moon for the first time.

According to CNN, the lunar lander "Odysseus" developed by American Intuition Machine Company landed on the moon on the 22nd local time.

Reuters said that the lander developed by Intuition Machine landed near the south pole of the moon on 22nd, which was the first American spacecraft to land on the moon since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, and also the first time in history that it was completely realized by the private sector.

Foundation stone laying for 10,000 residential buildings in Pyongyang, North Korea.

According to Korean Central News Agency’s report on February 24th, the foundation laying ceremony for the third phase of 10,000 residential construction projects in Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea, in 2024 was held in Hesheng district on the 23rd. Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and State Councilor, attended the groundbreaking ceremony.

At the ceremony, Kim Jong-un pressed the blasting button and announced the start of the construction of 10,000 residential units in the third phase of Hesheng area.

Nearly 100 employees of two major airlines in Japan cheated in the exam.

According to Japanese media reports, Japan’s two major airlines, All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines, recently admitted that nearly 100 employees of their subsidiaries cheated in the airport driving qualification examination.

According to reports, ANA announced on the 20th that during the period from August 2022 to February 2024, a total of 82 employees of its two subsidiaries cheated in online exams, and were suspected of reading textbooks during the answering process. ANA Holdings said: "We apologize for the violation of safety rules. We will work hard to prevent such incidents from happening again and restore trust. "

On the same day, JAL also issued a statement saying that 16 employees of its two subsidiaries were suspected of cheating in the same exam and referred to textbooks during the answering process. The company has confiscated the driver’s license of the person involved and handed it over to the authorities, and stopped the online examination.

Social platform "X" deletes accounts and posts related to Indian farmers’ protests.

According to Agence France-Presse, after four consecutive rounds of talks failed to achieve satisfactory results, Indian farmers resumed their "March into New Delhi" protests on the 21st. Police fired tear gas at the demonstrative farmers in the border areas, and there were also a large number of roadblocks along the expressway.

According to media reports, the social platform "X" (formerly Twitter) said that according to the order of the Indian government, it had deleted some accounts and posts related to this peasant protest. "X" did not provide relevant details, but said it disagreed with the Indian government’s behavior.

Indian journalist Mohammad zubair said that "many influential X accounts" of journalists, influential people and trade union members who reported on Indian farmers’ protests have been "closed". "The Indian government has issued an executive order requiring’ X’ to take action on specific accounts and posts, otherwise it will face penalties including huge fines and imprisonment." The official account of the "X" global government affairs team issued a document saying.

Harmful substances in the wells around the US military ammunition depot in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan exceeded the standard.

According to an overseas network report on the 23rd, East Hiroshima City, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan announced the survey results on the 21st, saying that the content of organic fluorine compounds (PFAS) exceeded the standard in 12 wells near the U.S. military ammunition depot in Kawakami.

According to the report, the value of one of the 12 wells exceeds the standard value by 300 times. Some wells have been used as drinking water for surrounding residents, and they have been banned from drinking since mid-January. A committee composed of experts and scholars has been set up in East Hiroshima recently, and it is scheduled to start investigating whether the surrounding rivers are polluted next week.

A middle school student in the United States was dissatisfied with the school’s request to cut his hair short and took the governor and the state attorney general to court.

According to a number of American media reports, an 18-year-old middle school student in Texas, USA, was dissatisfied with the school’s request that he must cut his hair short, and not only took the school to court, but also the governor of Texas and the state attorney general, saying that he had been illegally persecuted by them.

According to American media reports, the middle school student sued the school and the government on the basis of an anti-hair discrimination bill that came into effect in Texas last September. The English name is CROWN Act. The law requires local schools, employers and other institutions not to discriminate against those who have hair styles with national and cultural characteristics, such as some common hair styles of black Americans.

However, on Thursday, local time, the judge who heard the case of students suing the school ruled that the school won the case, on the grounds that although the laws of Texas protect national characteristic hairstyles from discrimination, there is no provision in the law to protect the length of hair, so the judge can only decide the case according to law and cannot invent anything that is not in the law, otherwise it will overstep the functions of the legislature.

(Yangcheng Evening News Yangcheng School Comprehensive CCTV News, World Wide Web, The Paper, Zhongxin.com, Reference News Network, vision china, Overseas Network, etc.)

From epidemic prevention station to CDC

  Original title: From Epidemic Prevention Station to CDC

  Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, Beijing CDC at all levels, as a front-line professional force, has played an important role in fighting the epidemic. From the initial health and epidemic prevention station to today’s CDC, how did Beijing’s health and epidemic prevention work step into a new era of public health from a blank sheet of paper?

  Health and epidemic prevention stations were set up in 1950s.

  Before the founding of New China, Beijing’s health and epidemic prevention work was almost blank. Plague, cholera and smallpox all occurred and prevailed, and people’s lives and health were greatly endangered.

  After the founding of New China, Beijing attached great importance to health and epidemic prevention, quickly eliminated smallpox and relapsing fever and prevented the occurrence of plague and cholera. Infectious diseases such as diphtheria, whooping cough, measles and polio, which seriously endanger children’s health and life, have also been basically controlled. By the mid-1950s, the focus of health and epidemic prevention in the city had shifted to the prevention of measles, dysentery and Japanese encephalitis.

  In October 1953, Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station was established and became the municipal epidemic prevention and health supervision department.

  What was the Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station like at that time? On July 11th, 1955, Futang Zhu, a deputy to the National People’s Congress and a pediatrician, published an article entitled "I visited suburban rural areas and health and epidemic prevention work" in the 3rd edition of this newspaper, which wrote that there are three new buildings in the north of the Municipal Infectious Disease Hospital, one is the office of the Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station, the other is the disinfection station, and the other is the passing room and disinfection treatment room. Designed by Soviet experts, it is specially designed to disinfect patients and clothes with infectious germs. It is divided into two parts, men and women, each with a registration room, a barber shop, a dressing room and a bathing room. The two clothes are sent to a central disinfection room from both sides. The high-pressure sterilizer in the disinfection room is as big as a locomotive. If the cotton-padded clothes are disinfected, 150 sets of cotton-padded clothes can be disinfected in about 30 minutes with 10 pounds of steam pressure.

  At that time, the function of Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station was to inspect and supervise industrial hygiene, environmental hygiene, food hygiene and school hygiene on the one hand, and to investigate and deal with epidemics on the other hand, to organize large-scale vaccination work, and to organize the masses to carry out patriotic health campaigns and give technical guidance.

  Later, the city’s health and epidemic prevention institutions continued to improve and perfect, and district-level health and epidemic prevention stations were also established in various districts. However, due to the limited conditions, in 1950s, epidemic prevention stations in the whole city only carried out irregular supervision and inspection on the hygiene of fur and leather industry and high-temperature workshops and toxic workplaces in related industries with poor working conditions, as well as some food industries, cold drink manufacturing and selling industries, schools and other units, so the depth and breadth of hygiene and epidemic prevention need to be improved. (Beijing Daily, 1st edition, February 28, 1984, "Strengthening Health and Epidemic Prevention in this Municipality and Actively Building a Civilized and Healthy Capital")

  2. Organize patriotic health campaign

  Among the many tasks organized by health and epidemic prevention stations, the patriotic health campaign centered on "eliminating four pests" in the 1950s and 1960s is probably the most memorable one for the citizens.

  According to the newspaper’s 2nd edition of September 6th, 1956, "City and District Epidemic Prevention Stations are Vigorously Killing Mosquitoes and Flies", the city health and epidemic prevention station dispatched a large number of electric spray trucks and motorcycle spray trucks to kill mosquitoes and flies, among which the electric spray trucks only sprayed an area of more than 450,000 square meters in 45 days. Disinfectors in various districts also assisted relevant departments to use drugs to kill flies in garbage dumps and their surrounding households, and shared drugs to spray more than 1,000 houses and more than 30,000 square meters of garbage dumps. In rotten vegetable piles, residents’ outdoor toilets and septic tanks, the epidemic prevention station also uses drugs to kill maggots.

  In order to provide scientific basis for the city’s fly control and disease prevention work, the staff of Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station conducted many investigations and studies on fly control. They set up fly index survey points, which are distributed in various parts of the city: some are located in institutions; Some are located next to public canteens; Some are located in the corner of the food processing workshop. Every month and every ten days, the staff should put the fly cages on each investigation point on time, and at the same time bring the caught flies back to the laboratory, identify them by species, register and analyze them respectively, understand the types, living habits and breeding laws of flies, and test the effect of pesticides. (Beijing Daily, 2nd edition, July 6, 1962, Investigation on Fly Killing in Municipal Health and Epidemic Prevention Station)

  City and district health and epidemic prevention stations also organized the masses to carry out rodent control activities. The staff of the health and epidemic prevention station investigated the distribution density and reproduction law of rats, summed up some methods and measures to eliminate rats, and promoted them to institutions, factories, schools and so on. Later, this work became a regular health work in the city. (Beijing Daily, 2nd edition, November 1, 1963, Achievements in Rodent Control in this Municipality)

  3 prevention and treatment of chronic diseases has gradually become the "highlight"

  With the development of the times, the focus of health and epidemic prevention in Beijing has also changed, paying more attention to how to improve people’s health.

  In June, 2000, based on the Beijing Health and Epidemic Prevention Station and other units, the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention was formally established, and its functions were expanded to prevent infectious diseases, chronic non-communicable diseases, common diseases of students, emergency response to public health emergencies, national health education, public health protection and many other contents. Since then, district-level CDC has also been established.

  The prevention and treatment of chronic diseases has gradually become the "highlight" of disease control. According to the 16th edition of "Beware of the rejuvenation of patients with chronic diseases" published by this newspaper on December 26th, 2001, since 1970s, the disease spectrum of Beijing residents has changed significantly, infectious diseases have been basically controlled, and chronic diseases such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and malignant tumors have become the main diseases threatening Beijing people’s health. In order to control the rising trend of chronic diseases, after 2000, Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention established chronic disease demonstration sites in eight urban areas of the city, and selected representative residential communities to investigate five chronic diseases and behavioral risk factors, including hypertension, diabetes, tumor, coronary heart disease and stroke.

  In 2002, the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention randomly selected 1,240 families from the whole city for nutritional and health status survey, and learned about the nutritional status of residents in this city and the incidence of chronic diseases related to it through daily food and nutrient intake, eating habits and other information. (Beijing Daily, 5th edition, August 19, 2002, Fine Calculation of Oil, Salt, Sauce and Vinegar)

  Under the scientific guidance of the disease control department, Beijing people’s health concept has become fashionable, and investing in health has become a fashion. Beijing National Physical Fitness Testing Center receives many citizens who come to test their physical fitness every day, spend some money to find out their physical fitness, and let experts tailor a fitness plan for themselves by the way. In the past, vaccination was a "patent" for children. After entering the new century, adults and the elderly have joined the army of injections, and preventing diseases before they happen has also become an investment. (Beijing Daily, 1st edition, October 7, 2002, "Beijingers live ten years longer than one year")

  4. Improvement of epidemic reporting system in SARS

  In 2003, the sudden SARS epidemic ravaged Beijing. As the main force of prevention and control, the disease control department bravely shouldered the heavy burden.

  On April 10, 2003, the first edition of "Extraordinary Warrior" recorded the scene of that year: it was late at night, and the Beijing CDC was still brightly lit. The 60 members of the SARS emergency team are still busy. Several hotlines on the desk kept ringing, citizens kept asking about SARS symptoms and prevention methods, and eight trained business backbones took pains to answer various questions. At the end of the day, everyone has to answer dozens or even hundreds of phone calls, and they are often too tired to even eat. In the health and epidemic prevention emergency command center, the monitoring reports of all districts and counties are collected at any time on the huge screen, and the epidemiological investigation team members summarize the information of the day. If a suspected SARS patient is admitted to the respiratory clinic of a hospital, the epidemic prevention personnel will arrive at the scene half an hour later, and track his upper-level source of infection and close contacts to cut off the source of infection.

  In April of that year, a strict epidemic reporting system was established in Beijing. Every hospital has a statistical reporter. The urban CDC should accurately report the epidemic situation to the municipal CDC within 6 hours, and the suburbs should complete this work within 12 hours. (Beijing Daily, 3rd edition, April 26, 2003, "The city has formed a perfect SARS epidemic reporting and prevention and control system")

  After SARS, great progress has been made in the construction of epidemic reporting system and system in Beijing. Chen Liquan, then director of the Dongcheng District CDC, said that the hospital could report the epidemic situation directly to the Ministry of Health through the computer network, and at the same time report it to the local grassroots CDC by telephone and fax for epidemiological investigation and handling. The double reporting system makes the information construction of disease control more perfect. (Beijing Daily, 2nd edition, October 13, 2003, "Prevention must be based on SARS")

  5. Establish a four-level early warning of infectious diseases.

  Due to the continuous discovery of new pathogens and related infectious diseases around the world, the situation of health and disease prevention is grim. Beijing is also striving to build a perfect public health safety system and continuously improve its ability to respond to public health emergencies.

  In November 2004, the Emergency Plan for Public Health Emergencies in Beijing was issued, which consists of the emergency plans for public health emergencies such as influenza, avian influenza, plague, cholera and hepatitis, and food poisoning and acute occupational poisoning. The epidemic situation of infectious diseases is divided into four levels according to different intensities, with particularly serious infectious diseases as the first level, major infectious diseases as the second level and major infectious diseases as the third level. The general epidemic situation of infectious diseases is Grade IV, and the corresponding designated hospitals are enabled according to the early warning level, and the corresponding number of beds are enabled according to the intensity of the epidemic, and the clinically diagnosed and suspected patients are treated respectively. (Beijing Daily, 1st edition, November 5, 2004, "Outbreaks will be divided into four levels of early warning")

  In 2005, Haidian took the lead in launching a public health safety broadcasting system in China, which provided early warning of infectious diseases, food poisoning, occupational poisoning and drinking water pollution incidents according to various public health events over the years. (Beijing Daily, 6th edition, February 28th, 2005, "Public Health Safety Broadcasting System Launched in Haidian")

  Drawing lessons from SARS, Beijing’s public health construction has been carried out step by step. Since then, Beijing has taken the lead in the prevention and control of avian influenza, influenza, norovirus and hand, foot and mouth disease. Today’s Beijing has entered a new era of public health.

  (Text: Jia Xiaoyan’s historical data: Jingbao Group graphic database, Xinhua News Agency)

First bottoming out, then rising —— Predicting the trend of domestic interest rate in the next few quarters

Full text10074Words, reading takes abouttwentyminute

Macro Team of Wencaixin Research Institute

Wu Chaoming and Hu Wenyan 

Core view 

How will the domestic interest rate, especially the yield of ten-year treasury bonds, be interpreted in the future? The market has little disagreement on the medium and long-term trend. Most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, and show an overall downward trend. However, the market has great differences and different judgments on the short-term trend in the next few quarters.

1. China’s interest rate analysis framework: fundamental factors such as economic growth and inflation dominate the direction of interest rate change, while other factors such as financial supervision policies and exchange rates affect the fluctuation range of interest rates.One isIn the medium and long term, the yield trend of domestic ten-year government bonds is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle, indicating that the trend of domestic interest rates is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.The second isAfter the international financial crisis in 2008, the goal of financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates. In the cycle of stable economic growth, especially economic recovery, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead to a significant increase in market interest rates.The third isInterest rates will also be affected by exchange rates, supply and demand of funds and other factors. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will restrict the domestic monetary easing space, and the demand for funds exceeding supply will also raise the level of interest rate centers.

Second, the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters: it is expected that the fluctuation will bottom out first, and then the probability of recovery will be too high.

First, from the perspective of interest rate analysis framework, the yield of 10-year government bonds may bottom out first and then rise.First,The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which determines that it is difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term, or to bottom out first, but after the economy is confirmed to stabilize and rise, interest rates will tend to rise;Secondly,Affected by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig grain price, high oil price, recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates;Third,The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on domestic interest rates.

Second, from a quantitative point of view, the current yield of ten-year government bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and it is only a matter of time before it gradually converges upward in the future.

Third, based on the historical experience in 2012 and 2019, the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term. However, if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economic confirmation stabilizes, the interest rate will enter the recovery channel.In July this year, the domestic economy recovered weakly, which led the central bank to cut interest rates unexpectedly in August. If the real estate recovery continues to fall short of expectations, the possibility of cutting interest rates again will not be ruled out. However, with the steady growth policy taking effect, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future is increasing, and the trend of interest rate bottoming out in the next few quarters is more clear.

Risk warning:Real estate recovery continued to fall short of expectations, and the overseas economy went down more than expected.

main body

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market interest rate has experienced two obvious downturns: First, in April-May, 2022, in the face of the severe impact on the economy brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the epidemic, the central bank greatly increased the liquidity supply to boost the demand for entity financing and support the economic recovery as soon as possible. The domestic short-term market interest rate DR007 dropped from about 2.1% in the first quarter to around 1.5%, which was about 60BP lower than the policy interest rate in the same period (see Figure 1). Second, from July to August, due to the unexpected economic recovery, especially the overall weakening of financial and economic data in July, and the prominent problem of insufficient effective social demand, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in mid-August, pushing the interest rate of DR007 down from about 1.9% at the end of June to the historical low of 1.3% during the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and the yield of 10-year government bonds also broke through the low point in the same period to further open up the downside (see Figure 1-2).

Looking forward to the future, the market has little difference on the medium and long-term trend, and most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, showing an overall downward trend, but the market has great differences and different judgments on the trend in the next few quarters. Therefore, based on the interest rate analysis framework and quantitative analysis, this paper studies the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters.

First, China’s interest rate analysis framework

(1) The interest rate level is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.

According to the People’s Bank Law, the ultimate goal of China’s monetary policy is to "maintain the stability of the currency and promote economic growth". As a big country economy, China’s monetary policy is dominated by me. Interest rate is one of the key tools to achieve the goal of monetary policy, so the formulation of domestic interest rate policy and the trend of interest rate level mainly depend on economic fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices in the medium and long term.

First, the trend of domestic interest rate is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle.Inventory cycle describes the periodic change of enterprise inventory for about 40 months, which can be used to help judge the strength of economic growth because of its strong correlation with nominal economic growth (see Figure 3). Since 2003, China has experienced a total of five complete inventory cycles, and is currently in the sixth cycle of the inventory cycle (see Figure 4). Generally speaking, the upward cycle of inventory often corresponds to the recovery stage of interest rate, that is, the bear market in the bond market, and vice versa. However, it is worth noting that the peak and trough of interest rate and inventory cycle are only similar at the time point, but not completely consistent. In most cases, interest rate is slightly ahead of the latter to peak or bottom. On the one hand, this stems from the fact that the growth rate of inventory lags behind the economic growth slightly (see Figure 3), and on the other hand, it is also related to the interest rate being affected by other factors such as investors’ expectations. In addition, there is no fixed proportional relationship between interest rate fluctuation range and inventory fluctuation range, and they only have the same trend, indicating that economic growth is not the only factor determining interest rate.

Second, there is a strong correlation between interest rate trend and inflation gap in history, but the correlation tends to weaken in recent years.In order to stabilize inflation and its expectation, China will put forward this year’s CPI growth target in the government work report every year. If the price deviates far from the above target value, monetary policy will take effective measures to promote the price to return to the target center. From the practical experience, before 2013, the yield of domestic ten-year government bonds and the inflation gap (CPI growth rate-government target growth rate) basically changed synchronously, and the correlation between them was very strong (see Figure 5). However, after 2013, due to the obvious reduction of domestic CPI fluctuation, the inflation gap basically fluctuated around 0, the monetary policy was weakened by price constraints, and the correlation between the inflation gap and the yield of 10-year government bonds was also obviously weakened. If we consider the relationship between the comprehensive inflation index weighted by CPI and PPI and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the correlation between the two has also weakened after 2013, and the peaks and valleys of the two are close at the time point but no longer completely consistent (see Figure 6). On the whole, when the inflationary pressure is high, the interest rate is more constrained by the price, which is more consistent with the price trend, and vice versa, which shows that inflation is one of the important factors in determining the interest rate.

(B) After the international financial crisis in 2008, financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates.

After the financial crisis in 2008, the major central banks in the world learned the lesson that monetary policy only focused on inflation targets and paid insufficient attention to financial stability, and began to focus on improving the financial regulatory framework and strengthening macro-prudential management, and their attention to financial stability targets increased significantly. In terms of macro-prudential management framework construction, the Bank of China is at the forefront of global central banks, and further accelerates the improvement of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy after the crisis. Among them, the former focuses on maintaining economic and price stability, while the latter focuses on maintaining financial stability. Under the background of resolving financial risks and maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio, financial regulatory policies have also become an important factor affecting the level of domestic interest rates. During the period of steady economic growth, especially during the economic recovery cycle, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead the market interest rate to rise. For example, in 2013-2014 and 2016-2018, two rounds of domestic interest rates went up, and the tightening of financial supervision was one of the main reasons.

First, the above two rounds of interest rate hikes are in the rising stage of inventory cycle and nominal GDP growth rate (see Figure 4), indicating that economic stabilization and recovery is an important prerequisite for interest rate hikes.However, if we look at the constant price GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate indicators, they have basically changed little during the period (see Figure 7), reflecting that there is no overheating risk in the economy, and fundamental factors are not enough to support a sharp rise in interest rates. The central bank’s working paper "Natural Interest Rate in China" has also reached a similar conclusion, that is, except for a slight decline around 2015, the domestic output gap in 2012-2019 is close to zero (see Figure 8), indicating that the economic operation is generally stable.

Second, the rapid rise of interest rates in mid-2013 and the end of 2016 is closely related to the shift of monetary policy to deleveraging to prevent risks and the tightening of regulatory policies.During the above two rounds of interest rate hikes, the growth rate of leverage ratio in the financial sector declined (see Figure 9). Among them, in 2013, in order to strictly control banks’ off-balance-sheet loans (such as trust loans) to promote the disorderly expansion of non-standard assets (see Figure 10), and to prevent the rapid growth of interbank business from idling funds within the financial system and increasing the risk of maturity mismatch, the regulatory authorities issued a series of regulatory measures, such as the Notice on Regulating the Investment Operation of Commercial Banks’ wealth management business (referred to as Circular No.8), which forced financial institutions to strengthen liquidity management and added a "default door" for a bank. In 2016, as the economy entered a new round of upward channel, and there were many problems of leverage and capital idling in the financial market, the primary goal of domestic monetary policy gradually shifted from steady growth to risk prevention. At the same time, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China took preventing and resolving major risks as the first of the three tough battles. In October 2016, the Politburo meeting clearly put forward "focusing on curbing asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks". In November 2017, new regulations on asset management were introduced, which started the domestic financial deleveraging campaign, and the leverage ratio growth rate of financial institutions increased from 20 in early 2016.

Looking back at the above two rounds of interest rate upward cycles, it is inseparable from the tightening of financial supervision policies. The deep-seated reason behind it is that when the economy is under great downward pressure, the central bank will often implement a loose policy of "releasing water to raise fish" to stimulate the economic recovery. At that time, the market liquidity is abundant but the return of the real economy is low, and the phenomenon of "asset shortage" is prominent, resulting in excess funds speculating on various virtual assets, chasing high-term spread assets, amplifying financial leverage and pushing up financial risks. However, when the economy starts to stabilize and rebound, the regulatory authorities will take the initiative to tighten monetary policy, resolve the risks bred in the early stage and reduce the policy sequelae, thus pushing interest rates upward. Therefore, the interest rate recovery is often in the period after the growth rate of social financing has recovered for a period of time or at the stage of bottoming out, that is, after the economy has stabilized and recovered, the convergence of liquidity at this time will also lead to the bottoming out of credit spreads (see Figure 11).

(3) The interest rate level will also be affected by other factors such as exchange rate, capital supply and demand.

First, monetary policy should not only achieve internal balance, but also take into account external balance, especially with the continuous improvement of China’s capital market opening level, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, so exchange rate factors have certain constraints on the central bank’s interest rate policy, although this constraint tends to weaken with the increase of exchange rate flexibility.According to "impossible trinity" theory, monetary policy must give up some independence when allowing capital to flow freely and keeping the exchange rate relatively stable. For example, when the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index strengthens, attracting international capital to return; If other economies do not follow the tightening of monetary policy, they will often face greater capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation pressure, thus aggravating the domestic capital market turmoil.

From the domestic practical experience, from 1989 to 2019, the Federal Reserve started four interest rate hike cycles, in which the domestic interest rate increased in different degrees three times, and only in 1999-2000 did China keep the interest rate unchanged (see Figure 12).The main reason why the interest rate did not move was that the GDP growth rate dropped from 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 1989 to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and the sharp economic downturn did not support monetary tightening. In 2022, the Federal Reserve started the interest rate hike cycle again, and the domestic monetary policy was "I-oriented", which lowered interest rates, partly due to the increase in exchange rate flexibility, which improved the flexibility and operational space of monetary policy, but this did not mean that domestic monetary policy was not affected and constrained by the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Second, the supply and demand of funds will have an impact on the short-term fluctuation of interest rates.If the money supply and social financing scale represent the macro-level social capital supply and demand respectively, then the difference between the growth rate of social financing and money supply indicates the relative change of capital demand and supply. The bigger the difference, the more the demand for funds exceeds the supply, the more obvious the tension of funds in the market, and the more the interest rate of funds will rise, and vice versa. Empirical data does confirm this point. Since 2015, the difference (social financing growth rate -M2 growth rate) and the yield of 10-year government bonds have fluctuated obviously and have a high correlation (see Figure 13).

An interesting phenomenon is that since 2011, the 10-year bond yield has a high linkage with social financing, but the correlation with the change of money supply has obviously decreased (see Figure 14).Theoretically speaking, the growth rate of M2 should be inversely related to the interest rate, but this relationship is obviously weakened after 2011. The main reasons behind this are as follows: On the one hand, with the acceleration of domestic interest rate marketization, coupled with the rapid development of financial innovation and disintermediation, China’s monetary control mode is gradually shifting from monetary quantity control to price control, which leads to the weakening of the correlation between money supply and economic growth and interest rate level; On the other hand, the money supply M2 reflects more how strong the countercyclical policy is than the growth of the real economy. Different from M2, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is consistent with the growth rate of social financing, which reflects that the domestic interest rate depends more on the financing demand of the real economy, and the financing demand is behind the growth of the real economy, especially the strong and weak changes of domestic demand. In the final analysis, economic growth is still the decisive force leading the trend of medium and long-term interest rates.

(4) Summary

To sum up, the domestic interest rate level is determined by the multiple objectives of monetary policy, but the core factors that affect our interest rate level at present are still economic growth and inflation, and with the obvious slowdown of domestic price fluctuations in recent years, the former plays a leading role in determining the direction of interest rate changes. In addition, factors such as financial stability and exchange rate can not dominate the direction of interest rate changes, but will strengthen the trend of interest rate changes and increase its fluctuation range. When the economy is in the recovery channel, financial risk prevention and other goals will push interest rates up; When the economy is in a downward cycle, financial risk prevention, exchange rate stability and other goals need to make way for economic growth, and interest rates generally fluctuate and fall.

Second, the short-term trend of domestic interest rates: first, the fluctuation bottomed out, and then the probability of recovery was too high.

(A) Based on the interest rate analysis framework: the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may bottom out first and then rise.

1. The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term.

Whether the PPI price index has dropped first or the current replenishment time has reached the highest level in history, it is a high probability event for China to enter a new round of destocking cycle in the future (see Figure 15). What needs to be pointed out here is that since 2021, the growth rate of domestic inventory has been greatly deviated from the growth rate of GDP and the trend of interest rate level, that is, while enterprises replenish inventory, the economic growth rate has dropped rapidly and sharply, and the interest rate has also dropped (see Figure 16). The reason is that the macro-and micro-policies have been tightened simultaneously in 2021, which has led to the rapid and substantial reduction of the leverage ratio of entities (see Figure 17). Coupled with the epidemic disturbance this year, demand has shrunk rapidly and inventory has been passively improved. Therefore, to judge the future trend of economy and interest rate, we need to comprehensively consider many factors such as inventory cycle, epidemic situation and counter-cyclical policy, and we can’t just observe one indicator of inventory cycle.

It is expected that the probability of weak economic fundamentals in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply.First, with the marginal alleviation of the short-term impact of the epidemic, the recovery of people flow and logistics, and the slight stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of social integration, the leading indicator of the economy (see Figure 18-19), the marginal recovery of the domestic economic growth rate in the second half of the year can be expected from the "deep pit" of 0.4% (constant price) in the second quarter. Second, the inventory cycle has entered a new round of decline channel, which will inevitably restrict the economic recovery. Third, although the growth rate of domestic social integration has stabilized and rebounded, the structure mainly relies on the financial front, and the credit growth rate is still falling, reflecting that the problem of insufficient effective social demand is severe and the economic recovery should not be overestimated. Looking at the extended cycle, China’s credit growth has been difficult in recent years, mainly due to the weakening trend of infrastructure and real estate, which used to have a large credit demand (see Figure 20), while the demand for other loans with relatively small volume is difficult to make up for the credit demand gap, which leads to the decline or normalization of China’s credit growth rate during the shift of new and old kinetic energy, which also means that the mode of stimulating economic growth by financial expansion is unsustainable, and it is necessary to cultivate new kinetic energy and new social purchasing power, create new credit demand, and smoothly spend the shift of growth rate.

2. Short-term inflationary pressure rises, which supports the upward trend of interest rates.

According to historical experience, when the domestic prices of pigs, oil and grain rise in resonance, the inflationary pressure tends to be greater (continuously exceeding the inflation target of 3%). On the contrary, if the prices of pigs and oil hedge each other and the food price is moderate, the inflation risk is relatively small and the time for the price to continue to rise is relatively short (see Figure 21).

Looking into the future, influenced by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig food prices, the high oil prices, the recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around 3% or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates.

First, a new round of "pig cycle" has been launched, and this round of pig price increase is second only to the African swine fever period in 2019.Historical experience shows that each round of "pig cycle" in China lasts about four years, and the first 1.5-2 years are the upward period of prices. In April this year, the domestic pork price went down to the stage low point, which is about four years from the starting point of the last cycle. Since May, the pig price has continued to rise, indicating that a new round of "pig cycle" has started, and it may usher in an upward period of more than one year in the future. Judging from the increase of this round of pig cycle, due to the weak demand recovery and the slow speed of supply, it is expected that the increase of pig price in this round will hardly exceed that of African swine fever in 2019. However, at the end of July, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities has risen to 29 yuan/kg, and extreme weather may have a certain negative impact on the supply of pigs. In the future, the pig price will probably continue to rise moderately (see Figure 22), and the increase is expected to exceed several rounds of pig cycles that began in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Second, the rise of international food prices is superimposed on extreme weather, and the risk of food price fluctuation in China may increase in the future.Benefiting from the low dependence of China’s three staple foods on foreign countries and sufficient domestic stocks, the increase in international food prices in the first half of the year has relatively little impact on China, which mainly drives domestic CPI through cost channels. However, two factors may increase the risk of food price fluctuation in China in the future. First, the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on global food prices, such as reduced grain production, rising grain production costs and slowing food trade, has yet to be revealed. In addition, the rise of food protectionism (the number of countries that issued food export bans in 2022 was as high as 24, second only to the 28 in 2008 food crisis), it is hard to say that the warning of future global food crisis has been lifted. Second, the impact of extreme weather on the global and China’s food prices may have increased: on the one hand, according to the statistics of the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July this year was the second hottest July in the world since statistics were available in 1880, and China also ushered in the hottest summer since statistics were available in 1961. It is expected that the negative impact of high temperature and dry weather on food production will gradually emerge; On the other hand, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that there is a 60% probability that La Nina will continue from December 2022 to February 2023, which means that a rare "triple" La Nina climate event may occur this year, and the world will face the test of cold winter, or further push up the global and Chinese food prices (see Figure 23-24).

Third, international oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high position, and China’s imported inflationary pressure still exists.For example, geopolitical conflicts and global energy transformation will restrict the improvement of this round of crude oil supply, and the cold winter weather is expected to partially hedge the impact of the decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic downturn. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a high position in a high probability during the year.

Fourth, abundant domestic liquidity and improved consumer demand will also support the rise of CPI center. On the one hand,Economic recovery after the epidemic is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate and increasing residents’ income, thus boosting residents’ consumption ability and willingness. In addition, after the epidemic is controlled, the consumption scene has improved, and residents have accumulated rich savings in the early stage (see Figure 25), which has accumulated energy for future consumption demand recovery.On the other hand,Since the second half of last year, the domestic money supply has been loose, and the growth rate of M2 has increased from a low of 8.2% in August last year to 12% in July this year, which is much higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, setting a new high since the outbreak, and will also support the rise of CPI center.

3. The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation of wide currency into wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on interest rates.

First, the spread between China and the United States may remain upside down for a long time, which will increase the upward pressure on interest rates through exchange rate channels.Affected by high inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates four times during the year, raising the target interest rate of the federal funds from 0-0.25% to 2.25-2.5% (see Figure 26), and the Fed is still on the way to continue raising interest rates during the year. During the same period, the pressure of steady growth of domestic economy was great, and interest rates were cut twice during the year. The dislocation of financial cycles between China and the United States deepened, and the yields of 10-year government bonds of the two countries continued to be upside down. This trend will continue in the short term. According to historical experience, the falling or even upside-down spread between China and the United States will increase the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow (see Figure 27). In order to take into account the external balance, domestic monetary policy easing will be restrained to some extent.

Second, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, it will also restrict the downside of interest rates.Since the beginning of this year, domestic real estate-related credit has shrunk sharply, and the proportion of new real estate loans to all new credit has turned negative in the second quarter (see Figure 28), indicating that the repayment scale of residents and housing enterprises has exceeded the amount of real estate loans lent by banks. Affected by this, the transmission of domestic wide money to wide credit has been impeded. In July, the difference between the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2 hit a new low since statistics were available (see Figure 14). However, in the future, the positive factors have increased significantly. For example, after the 5-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 15BP again on August 22, the domestic personal housing loan interest rate may have been lower than the 2016 low, only slightly higher than that after the 2008 financial crisis. Generally speaking, the mortgage interest rate is about 6 months ahead of the growth rate of real estate loans. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic mortgage interest rate has continued to fall rapidly, which indicates that the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up in the future (see Figure 29). With the gradual recovery of real estate credit from a very low position and the continuous efforts of "one city, one policy", the transformation from wide currency to wide credit is expected to accelerate, which will restrict the downward space of interest rates in the future.

To sum up, the economic recovery is weak and the regulatory policies are difficult to tighten, but the inflationary pressure is increasing, the spread between China and the United States continues to be upside down, and the wide currency is transformed into wide credit. It is expected that the interest rate will have limited room for further decline in the current position. In the next few quarters, the domestic 10-year national debt income will be the first to oscillate and bottom out, and the probability of rising later is too high.

(B) Based on quantitative analysis: the current yield of 10-year treasury bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and the high probability gradually converges upward.

In the medium and long term, the market interest rate should be equivalent to the desirable interest rate level that can not only ensure the economic operation at the potential output level, but also achieve the goals of price stability, full employment and financial stability. In this paper, the general Taylor rule method is used to measure the desirable interest rate level in China, and it is compared with the market interest rate to see whether there is overshoot at present, and thus to judge the future market interest rate trend.

According to Taylor rule, the interest rate level is mainly determined by inflation gap and output gap. With the diversification of the central bank’s monetary policy objectives and the development of financial markets, we add exchange rate and social financing scale factors to the basic Taylor rule to fit and measure the current acceptable level of China’s 10-year national debt yield. Taylor’s rule regression equation shows that the current yield level of ten-year treasury bonds is obviously lower than the desired interest rate level (see Figure 30), which means that the interest rate level is lower than the desired interest rate level that matches the current economic growth, prices, exchange rate and liquidity. According to past experience, when the interest rate gap (market interest rate-desirable interest rate) falls below -0.4%, the probability of market interest rate converging upward to desirable interest rate is greater, and it is only a matter of time before the market interest rate rises in the future.

(3) Based on historical experience: If there is no unexpected impact, the interest rate will fall first and then rise after the interest rate cut boots land.

No matter from the economic fundamentals or quantitative point of view, we all think that the interest rate will converge marginally in the future with a high probability, but the market is still skeptical about whether the interest rate will really go up. There is an important reason behind it, that is, the economic data in July was significantly less than expected, and after the loan suspension risk incident, the central bank unexpectedly lowered the policy interest rates of MLF and OMO on August 15, which rekindled the market’s expectation of starting a new round of interest rate reduction cycle in China.

Historical experience does show that after the central bank cuts interest rates continuously, the market interest rate will tend to decline in the short term, but it also shows that as long as the credit data improves and the economy gradually stabilizes after the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year government bonds will open the recovery channel after the interest rate cut boots land. For example, in 2012 and 2019, there were unexpected interest rate cuts, but after that, interest rates rebounded with the improvement of the economy, rather than falling. Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether to continue to cut interest rates after cutting interest rates, depending on the marginal changes in economic fundamentals.

1. In 2012, interest rates were cut twice in a row: the yield of ten-year government bonds only dropped by 14BP, and then the journey of recovery began.

After the second quarter of 2011, the domestic economy continued to slow down. However, because the CPI has been above 3%, the central bank is cautious in cutting interest rates, mainly by lowering the RRR to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (see Figure 31-32). Until mid-2012, with the CPI growth rate falling below 3%, coupled with the superimposed influence of the economic downturn, repeated wide credit (see Figure 33) and the further intensification of the European debt crisis caused by bank runs in overseas Greece, the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July respectively (see Figure 32). After two interest rate cuts, the cumulative maximum downward rate of 10-year treasury bond yield is about 14BP. However, as the credit growth rate announced after the interest rate cut returned to the upward trend, the economy gradually confirmed its stabilization, and the yield of 10-year government bonds began to turn upside down, starting an upward cycle (see Figure 32-33).

2. Unexpected interest rate cut in 2019: The yield of ten-year government bonds fell by about 9BP, and the downside was reopened after the outbreak of the epidemic.

After the second half of 2018, the domestic economy continued to slow down, and the CPI growth rate was less than 3% in the same period (see Figure 34). In order to prevent financial risks, the central bank was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and also chose to lower the RRR first to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (4 RRR cuts in 2018 and 5 RRR cuts in 2019), which promoted the growth rate of domestic social integration and credit to continue to rise to March 2019. However, due to the escalation of trade friction and the occurrence of risk events such as Baoshang Bank, the domestic credit contraction pressure increased significantly in 2019, and the credit growth rate dropped again after the first quarter of the same year. At the same time, the PMI index was below 50% of threshold for six consecutive months, and the downward pressure on the economy increased (see Figure 35-36). Therefore, although the CPI growth rate broke through 3% from September to October in 2019 (the soaring pork price increased the structural inflationary pressure), after the PMI fell to 49.3% in October, hitting an eight-month low, the central bank cut the MLF interest rate by 5BP in early November (see Figure 35). After the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped by about 9BP, and then gradually stabilized. At the end of December, the COVID-19 outbreak broke out in China, which further reopened the downward space of interest rates (see Figure 35).

To sum up, during the economic downturn in 2012 and 2019, the central bank was cautious about cutting interest rates at first. However, due to some unexpected risk events, continuous credit contraction and sustained downward pressure on the economy, the central bank still took interest rate cuts at the end of the economic downturn, and the timing of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Both rounds of interest rate cuts pushed interest rates down slightly in the short term, but in 2012, as the economy stabilized, interest rates quickly turned upward, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 further opened up the downside of interest rates.

Similar to 2012 and 2019, in 2022, the central bank was also cautious about comprehensively lowering the policy interest rate. For example, after the interest rate was cut by 10BP in January 2022, despite the unexpected rebound of domestic epidemic in the second quarter, the central bank did not immediately reduce the policy interest rate. It was not until July that the economy turned downward again on the way to recovery and there were twists and turns in credit easing that the central bank cut interest rates again beyond expectations (see Figure 37-38). According to the experience of two rounds of interest rate cuts that exceeded expectations in 2012 and 2019, if the domestic economy gradually stabilizes in the short term, the transformation from wide currency to wide credit accelerates, and the yield of 10-year government bonds drops slightly, the recovery channel will be gradually started; If there is an unexpected risk event, such as the real estate recovery continues to be less than expected, the risk spreads to other fields or even systemic risks, it is also expected that the central bank will cut interest rates quickly, continuously and substantially, and the interest rate center is expected to drop significantly again until the economy stabilizes, but at present, this probability is too small.

(4) Summary

Based on the analysis of the above three perspectives, it is estimated that the yield of domestic 10-year government bonds will probably bottom out first and then rise in the next few quarters:1)The weak recovery of domestic economy does not support a sharp rise in interest rates in the short term, and even does not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates again. However, with the increasing pressure to stabilize prices and exchange rates, the constraints on monetary easing are also obvious. In addition, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future will increase. It is only a question of whether the recovery speed or slope can be as expected, and the trend of interest rate recovery is relatively clear.2)At present, the domestic market interest rate has been much lower than the desired interest rate level, and it is only a matter of time before it converges upward;3)Historical experience shows that the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term, but if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economy is confirmed to stabilize, the interest rate will open a recovery channel.

In addition, the current real interest rate level in China is not high, and monetary policy is constrained by insufficient demand. The effect of monetary easing on stimulating economic growth is limited, but it may bring more sequelae. Unless it encounters extreme unexpected shocks, it is not necessary to continue to loosen the currency substantially. First, China’s real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) has been continuously lower than the actual economic growth rate. Governor Yi Gang of the Central Bank pointed out in the article "Interest Rate System and Interest Rate Marketization Reform in China" that the real interest rate R after inflation adjustment should be equal to the real economic growth rate G. However, most of the time, the real interest rate in China is lower than the actual economic growth rate, which tends to distort the allocation of financial resources and bring about inflation, asset price bubbles, idle funds and other problems. At present, the real interest rate of RMB loans in China has been at a low level below 1.5% for five consecutive quarters (see Figure 39), and the growth rate has been lower than the real GDP except for the second quarter of this year. Second, the core contradiction facing China’s economy at present is insufficient effective demand. Monetary easing is constrained by banks’ reluctance to borrow and enterprises’ reluctance to borrow, and it is difficult for monetary policy to promote the "soft rope". Therefore, fiscal policy needs more efforts. Monetary policy should cooperate with fiscal policy to provide suitable liquidity and financing environment, and blindly easing will not help accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the current economic structure.

   This article was first published on WeChat WeChat official account: Seeing the Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

(Editor: Song Zheng HN002)