Kim Jong-un watched the Air Force Flight Competition, and the North Korean Air Force rarely showed its family.

  The five major services of the Korean People’s Army have always been the object of external attention. Compared with the Korean People’s Army and other services that often appear, the appearance rate of the Korean People’s Army Air Force is very low. However, according to Korean Central News Agency’s report on November 16th, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, Chairman of the State Council and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, watched the "Korean People’s Army Aviation and air defence forces Flight Commanders Combat Flight Technology Competition 2019". This event was initiated by Kim Jong-un five years ago, and it has also become a routine annual competition. Kim Jong-un hopes to further improve the flight skills and actual combat capabilities of flight commanders and combat pilots through competition competitions close to actual combat. Every flight competition, the top leader of North Korea will personally attend and give careful guidance. The purpose of this competition is to demonstrate the ability of air force fighters to destroy enemy targets and strike the ground. In this year’s air force flight competition, North Korea’s main model was publicly unveiled, and this mysterious air force once again entered the public eye.

MiG -29 (data map)

MiG -29 (data map)

On November 16, Kim Jong-un took a group photo with the flight controllers who participated in the combat flight technology competition and achieved results. MiG -29 appeared in the photo as the background.

On November 16, Kim Jong-un took a group photo with the flight controllers who participated in the combat flight technology competition and achieved results. MiG -29 appeared in the photo as the background.

"Goshawk-1", the highest symbol of the Korean People's Army Air Force, flew over the airport accompanied by air force fighters to review the flying troops.

"Goshawk-1", the highest symbol of the Korean People’s Army Air Force, flew over the airport accompanied by air force fighters to review the flying troops.

  After observing, Kim Jong-un said that North Korean pilots should fight with enemies armed to the teeth with great ideas and tactics. The victory or defeat of a battle is not determined by the combat data of weapons and equipment, but depends on what ideas and why you fight. The enemy who flaunts his technical superiority cannot overwhelm the superiority of the Korean People’s Army soldiers in political thought and fighting morality. Kim Jong-un also put forward the development direction of air force to develop Korean-style aviation weapons and equipment and contain the enemy’s display of aircraft technical advantages, and put forward the programmatic task of strengthening and developing the main air force.

  As can be seen from the photos published by the official media of North Korea, MIG -29 is still the "apple of the eye" of the North Korean Air Force. Although the MIG -29 is designed to counter fighters including the American F-16, the backwardness of electronic equipment and other systems and short range have made it impossible to compete with its opponents. Previously, most of the upper parts of North Korea’s latest MiG -29 fighter were painted with dark green and the bottom was dark sky blue. At the end of January 2012, the MIG -29 was also shown in the commemorative photos taken by Kim Jong-un when he inspected the air force. From the sky, the color of the upper part of the plane is similar to that of the land, and from the ground up, the color of the bottom of the plane is similar to that of the blue sky, so the concealment performance of the plane is improved. In 2014, North Korea began to repaint the fighter plane, changing the original dark green on the upper part of the MIG -29 fighter plane into light gray with markings, which is what we see now.

MiG -29 fighter before painting

MiG -29 fighter before painting

  On April 17, 2014, Kim Jong-un inspected the Korean People’s Army Air Force and air defence forces’s No.1017th Army. He said that when he passed by the army, he made a surprise inspection to understand the flight training of fighter planes. At that time, Kim Jong-un also ordered the fighters on duty to take off and complete difficult and complicated air combat actions. The photo taken at that time was also based on MIG -29.

  According to South Korean media reports in 2015, although the fighter planes of the North Korean Air Force are not as advanced as those of the South Korean Army, their number is already twice that of South Korea, and some old fighters will still pose a threat to South Korea. North Korean leaders have always stressed the importance of air combat, but reports from the North Korean media show that the strategy of the North Korean Air Force seems to be developing in the direction of ground attack. The North Korean media reported that Kim Jong-un praised the North Korean pilot’s "spirit of suicide bombing" and his passionate patriotism.

An -2 transport aircraft

An -2 transport aircraft

  Korean media said that North Korea has 300 An -2 transport planes and called them "indigenous steelmaking-class" stealth aircraft. An -2 transport plane is a two-wing transport plane developed by the former Soviet Union in the last century. It is simple to manufacture and low in cost. It has been widely used for spraying pesticides. Because of its wooden fuselage and cloth skin, it is not easy to be found by the Korean Air Force radar once an attack is launched. The DPRK also painted stealth paint for it, and modified the electronic instrument panel. In 2014, it also dispatched more than 10 An -2 transport planes to hold an exercise of airborne troops attacking Incheon Airport at night. Korean media said that what worries South Korea even more is that the An -2 transport plane equipped with rocket launchers and the Il -28 bomber can attack South Korea’s Bering Island and Yeonpyeong Island within 2-3 minutes after taking off from the North Korean Air Force Base. The Korean army should be alert to North Korea’s air force.

  Compared with the Korean Air Force, which is equipped with a large number of third-generation aircraft, the old models of the Korean Air Force occupy the majority. The South Korean military even said, "Three days after the start of the war, South Korean fighters will be able to fly freely in North Korea’s airspace." Although the fighter plane has fallen far behind the times, the North Korean military’s flight contest may also be aimed at sending a signal to other countries, including the United States, that the Korean People’s Air Force is fully capable of defending the country.

  Two days after observing the Air Force Flight Competition, on November 18th, Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea, Chairman of the State Council and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, instructed the Korean People’s Army Air Force and the air defence forces Sniper Division to conduct parachute training. According to Korean Central News Agency, Kim Jong-un instructed the training after receiving the report of the training plan from the observation center. Kim Jong-un said that the snipers landed very well. After receiving the sudden order, the brigade commander and the brigade political commissar took the lead and used their troops as gods. They personally led the troops to the front in strange areas, and their combat actions were very mature and impressive. They were all brave and reliable real soldiers. Kim Jong-un expressed great satisfaction with it.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  Recently, the increase of adenovirus infection in many places has attracted people’s attention.

  What is adenovirus? What are the symptoms after infection? How to prevent it? Let’s get to know each other!

  What diseases can human adenovirus cause?

  Adenovirus, namely human adenovirus. Human adenovirus is an important pathogen causing acute respiratory infection, which has strong environmental viability and transmission ability. Human adenovirus can cause outbreaks in densely populated and poorly hygienic environments. Human adenovirus includes 7 subgenus.
(A-G) at least 116 types.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  Because there are many types and different tissue tropism, different tissue and organ diseases are caused.It mainly includes acute respiratory infection, conjunctivitis and gastrointestinal diseases..

  01.Symptoms of respiratory infection:

  Acute respiratory infection is the most common, which causes common cold and flu-like symptoms. Typical clinical manifestations include cough, sore throat and fever, and severe cases may lead to pneumonia or even death. Types 3 and 7 in subgenus B are the main types of acute respiratory infection in China, and type 55 is the main type of community-acquired pneumonia in adults. Acute respiratory tract infections caused by type 1 and type 2 in subgenus C and type 4 in subgenus E are also common.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  02.Symptoms of eye infection:

  It is also one of the common symptoms of human adenovirus infection, which can causeEpidemic keratoconjunctivitis, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, pharyngeal conjunctival fever, etc.A variety of eye diseases, and in crowded places such as schools, can cause an outbreak of eye infections, and can also cause "swimming pool fever (that is, pharyngeal conjunctival fever, symptoms include persistent high fever, pharyngitis and acute follicular conjunctivitis)". Types 3 and 7 of subgenus B and types 8, 19 and 64 of subgenus D are the main types causing the above infections.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  03.Gastrointestinal symptoms:

  Many types of human adenovirus can be replicated in the gastrointestinal tract of infected people and excreted with feces, but only a few types of infection can cause gastroenteritis and infected people appear.Abdominal pain and diarrheaWait for symptoms. Human adenovirus subfamily F type 41 is the main type causing symptoms of gastrointestinal infection.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  What should I do if I am infected with human adenovirus?

  Infected with human adenovirus, those with mild symptoms should try to rest at home, reduce going out, go to public places and have close contact with others.Wear a mask scientifically;
cough
orsneezeCover your mouth and nose with paper towels or towels; Avoid sharing cups and tableware with others;Wash your hands with soap or hand sanitizer when running underwater.. Once the symptoms get worse, such as persistent high fever, palpitation and shortness of breath, you should go to the hospital in time.

Infection in many places has increased. What is human adenovirus?

  How can the public prevent human adenovirus infection?

  At present, there is no human adenovirus vaccine for the general population at home and abroad.The following measures are suggested to prevent human adenovirus infection:

  01.Epidemic period of diseaseMinimize going out.andGo to crowded and poorly ventilated places.
Place
, to avoid close contact with infected people, contact should beWear a mask scientifically, reduce the risk of respiratory infection.

  02.Develop good personal hygiene habitsWash your hands frequently and avoid touching important parts such as eyes, nose and mouth with unclean hands.

  03.Keep indoor ventilation, reduce the risk of transmission.

  04.canUse chlorine-containing disinfectantsThe environment or surface of the object contacted by human adenovirus infection
Disinfect
.

  05.Kindergarten institutions, schools and other key places should strengthen morning and afternoon inspection, absenteeism monitoring, etc., as soon as possible to find the epidemic situation, take timely measures to reduce the risk of outbreak.

  How can medical institutions prevent hospital feeling?

  01.In the epidemic season of human adenovirus, medical institutions should strengthen the control of nosocomial infection to avoid cross-infection in hospitals.

  02.Medical institutions at all levels should strengthen pre-inspection and triage, set up special consultation rooms to receive fever cases, and increase the frequency of cleaning and disinfection.

  03.The hospitalized cases of human adenovirus infection should be treated in isolation, and the medical instruments, secretions, medical waste and ward environment used by infected people should be disinfected in time.

  04.Medical staff carry out standard prevention, droplet isolation and contact transmission measures when diagnosing, treating and caring for people infected with adenovirus.

[Editor in charge:

]

First bottoming out, then rising —— Predicting the trend of domestic interest rate in the next few quarters

Full text10074Words, reading takes abouttwentyminute

Macro Team of Wencaixin Research Institute

Wu Chaoming and Hu Wenyan 

Core view 

How will the domestic interest rate, especially the yield of ten-year treasury bonds, be interpreted in the future? The market has little disagreement on the medium and long-term trend. Most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, and show an overall downward trend. However, the market has great differences and different judgments on the short-term trend in the next few quarters.

1. China’s interest rate analysis framework: fundamental factors such as economic growth and inflation dominate the direction of interest rate change, while other factors such as financial supervision policies and exchange rates affect the fluctuation range of interest rates.One isIn the medium and long term, the yield trend of domestic ten-year government bonds is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle, indicating that the trend of domestic interest rates is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.The second isAfter the international financial crisis in 2008, the goal of financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates. In the cycle of stable economic growth, especially economic recovery, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead to a significant increase in market interest rates.The third isInterest rates will also be affected by exchange rates, supply and demand of funds and other factors. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will restrict the domestic monetary easing space, and the demand for funds exceeding supply will also raise the level of interest rate centers.

Second, the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters: it is expected that the fluctuation will bottom out first, and then the probability of recovery will be too high.

First, from the perspective of interest rate analysis framework, the yield of 10-year government bonds may bottom out first and then rise.First,The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which determines that it is difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term, or to bottom out first, but after the economy is confirmed to stabilize and rise, interest rates will tend to rise;Secondly,Affected by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig grain price, high oil price, recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates;Third,The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on domestic interest rates.

Second, from a quantitative point of view, the current yield of ten-year government bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and it is only a matter of time before it gradually converges upward in the future.

Third, based on the historical experience in 2012 and 2019, the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term. However, if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economic confirmation stabilizes, the interest rate will enter the recovery channel.In July this year, the domestic economy recovered weakly, which led the central bank to cut interest rates unexpectedly in August. If the real estate recovery continues to fall short of expectations, the possibility of cutting interest rates again will not be ruled out. However, with the steady growth policy taking effect, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future is increasing, and the trend of interest rate bottoming out in the next few quarters is more clear.

Risk warning:Real estate recovery continued to fall short of expectations, and the overseas economy went down more than expected.

main body

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market interest rate has experienced two obvious downturns: First, in April-May, 2022, in the face of the severe impact on the economy brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the epidemic, the central bank greatly increased the liquidity supply to boost the demand for entity financing and support the economic recovery as soon as possible. The domestic short-term market interest rate DR007 dropped from about 2.1% in the first quarter to around 1.5%, which was about 60BP lower than the policy interest rate in the same period (see Figure 1). Second, from July to August, due to the unexpected economic recovery, especially the overall weakening of financial and economic data in July, and the prominent problem of insufficient effective social demand, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in mid-August, pushing the interest rate of DR007 down from about 1.9% at the end of June to the historical low of 1.3% during the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and the yield of 10-year government bonds also broke through the low point in the same period to further open up the downside (see Figure 1-2).

Looking forward to the future, the market has little difference on the medium and long-term trend, and most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, showing an overall downward trend, but the market has great differences and different judgments on the trend in the next few quarters. Therefore, based on the interest rate analysis framework and quantitative analysis, this paper studies the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters.

First, China’s interest rate analysis framework

(1) The interest rate level is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.

According to the People’s Bank Law, the ultimate goal of China’s monetary policy is to "maintain the stability of the currency and promote economic growth". As a big country economy, China’s monetary policy is dominated by me. Interest rate is one of the key tools to achieve the goal of monetary policy, so the formulation of domestic interest rate policy and the trend of interest rate level mainly depend on economic fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices in the medium and long term.

First, the trend of domestic interest rate is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle.Inventory cycle describes the periodic change of enterprise inventory for about 40 months, which can be used to help judge the strength of economic growth because of its strong correlation with nominal economic growth (see Figure 3). Since 2003, China has experienced a total of five complete inventory cycles, and is currently in the sixth cycle of the inventory cycle (see Figure 4). Generally speaking, the upward cycle of inventory often corresponds to the recovery stage of interest rate, that is, the bear market in the bond market, and vice versa. However, it is worth noting that the peak and trough of interest rate and inventory cycle are only similar at the time point, but not completely consistent. In most cases, interest rate is slightly ahead of the latter to peak or bottom. On the one hand, this stems from the fact that the growth rate of inventory lags behind the economic growth slightly (see Figure 3), and on the other hand, it is also related to the interest rate being affected by other factors such as investors’ expectations. In addition, there is no fixed proportional relationship between interest rate fluctuation range and inventory fluctuation range, and they only have the same trend, indicating that economic growth is not the only factor determining interest rate.

Second, there is a strong correlation between interest rate trend and inflation gap in history, but the correlation tends to weaken in recent years.In order to stabilize inflation and its expectation, China will put forward this year’s CPI growth target in the government work report every year. If the price deviates far from the above target value, monetary policy will take effective measures to promote the price to return to the target center. From the practical experience, before 2013, the yield of domestic ten-year government bonds and the inflation gap (CPI growth rate-government target growth rate) basically changed synchronously, and the correlation between them was very strong (see Figure 5). However, after 2013, due to the obvious reduction of domestic CPI fluctuation, the inflation gap basically fluctuated around 0, the monetary policy was weakened by price constraints, and the correlation between the inflation gap and the yield of 10-year government bonds was also obviously weakened. If we consider the relationship between the comprehensive inflation index weighted by CPI and PPI and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the correlation between the two has also weakened after 2013, and the peaks and valleys of the two are close at the time point but no longer completely consistent (see Figure 6). On the whole, when the inflationary pressure is high, the interest rate is more constrained by the price, which is more consistent with the price trend, and vice versa, which shows that inflation is one of the important factors in determining the interest rate.

(B) After the international financial crisis in 2008, financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates.

After the financial crisis in 2008, the major central banks in the world learned the lesson that monetary policy only focused on inflation targets and paid insufficient attention to financial stability, and began to focus on improving the financial regulatory framework and strengthening macro-prudential management, and their attention to financial stability targets increased significantly. In terms of macro-prudential management framework construction, the Bank of China is at the forefront of global central banks, and further accelerates the improvement of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy after the crisis. Among them, the former focuses on maintaining economic and price stability, while the latter focuses on maintaining financial stability. Under the background of resolving financial risks and maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio, financial regulatory policies have also become an important factor affecting the level of domestic interest rates. During the period of steady economic growth, especially during the economic recovery cycle, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead the market interest rate to rise. For example, in 2013-2014 and 2016-2018, two rounds of domestic interest rates went up, and the tightening of financial supervision was one of the main reasons.

First, the above two rounds of interest rate hikes are in the rising stage of inventory cycle and nominal GDP growth rate (see Figure 4), indicating that economic stabilization and recovery is an important prerequisite for interest rate hikes.However, if we look at the constant price GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate indicators, they have basically changed little during the period (see Figure 7), reflecting that there is no overheating risk in the economy, and fundamental factors are not enough to support a sharp rise in interest rates. The central bank’s working paper "Natural Interest Rate in China" has also reached a similar conclusion, that is, except for a slight decline around 2015, the domestic output gap in 2012-2019 is close to zero (see Figure 8), indicating that the economic operation is generally stable.

Second, the rapid rise of interest rates in mid-2013 and the end of 2016 is closely related to the shift of monetary policy to deleveraging to prevent risks and the tightening of regulatory policies.During the above two rounds of interest rate hikes, the growth rate of leverage ratio in the financial sector declined (see Figure 9). Among them, in 2013, in order to strictly control banks’ off-balance-sheet loans (such as trust loans) to promote the disorderly expansion of non-standard assets (see Figure 10), and to prevent the rapid growth of interbank business from idling funds within the financial system and increasing the risk of maturity mismatch, the regulatory authorities issued a series of regulatory measures, such as the Notice on Regulating the Investment Operation of Commercial Banks’ wealth management business (referred to as Circular No.8), which forced financial institutions to strengthen liquidity management and added a "default door" for a bank. In 2016, as the economy entered a new round of upward channel, and there were many problems of leverage and capital idling in the financial market, the primary goal of domestic monetary policy gradually shifted from steady growth to risk prevention. At the same time, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China took preventing and resolving major risks as the first of the three tough battles. In October 2016, the Politburo meeting clearly put forward "focusing on curbing asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks". In November 2017, new regulations on asset management were introduced, which started the domestic financial deleveraging campaign, and the leverage ratio growth rate of financial institutions increased from 20 in early 2016.

Looking back at the above two rounds of interest rate upward cycles, it is inseparable from the tightening of financial supervision policies. The deep-seated reason behind it is that when the economy is under great downward pressure, the central bank will often implement a loose policy of "releasing water to raise fish" to stimulate the economic recovery. At that time, the market liquidity is abundant but the return of the real economy is low, and the phenomenon of "asset shortage" is prominent, resulting in excess funds speculating on various virtual assets, chasing high-term spread assets, amplifying financial leverage and pushing up financial risks. However, when the economy starts to stabilize and rebound, the regulatory authorities will take the initiative to tighten monetary policy, resolve the risks bred in the early stage and reduce the policy sequelae, thus pushing interest rates upward. Therefore, the interest rate recovery is often in the period after the growth rate of social financing has recovered for a period of time or at the stage of bottoming out, that is, after the economy has stabilized and recovered, the convergence of liquidity at this time will also lead to the bottoming out of credit spreads (see Figure 11).

(3) The interest rate level will also be affected by other factors such as exchange rate, capital supply and demand.

First, monetary policy should not only achieve internal balance, but also take into account external balance, especially with the continuous improvement of China’s capital market opening level, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, so exchange rate factors have certain constraints on the central bank’s interest rate policy, although this constraint tends to weaken with the increase of exchange rate flexibility.According to "impossible trinity" theory, monetary policy must give up some independence when allowing capital to flow freely and keeping the exchange rate relatively stable. For example, when the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index strengthens, attracting international capital to return; If other economies do not follow the tightening of monetary policy, they will often face greater capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation pressure, thus aggravating the domestic capital market turmoil.

From the domestic practical experience, from 1989 to 2019, the Federal Reserve started four interest rate hike cycles, in which the domestic interest rate increased in different degrees three times, and only in 1999-2000 did China keep the interest rate unchanged (see Figure 12).The main reason why the interest rate did not move was that the GDP growth rate dropped from 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 1989 to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and the sharp economic downturn did not support monetary tightening. In 2022, the Federal Reserve started the interest rate hike cycle again, and the domestic monetary policy was "I-oriented", which lowered interest rates, partly due to the increase in exchange rate flexibility, which improved the flexibility and operational space of monetary policy, but this did not mean that domestic monetary policy was not affected and constrained by the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Second, the supply and demand of funds will have an impact on the short-term fluctuation of interest rates.If the money supply and social financing scale represent the macro-level social capital supply and demand respectively, then the difference between the growth rate of social financing and money supply indicates the relative change of capital demand and supply. The bigger the difference, the more the demand for funds exceeds the supply, the more obvious the tension of funds in the market, and the more the interest rate of funds will rise, and vice versa. Empirical data does confirm this point. Since 2015, the difference (social financing growth rate -M2 growth rate) and the yield of 10-year government bonds have fluctuated obviously and have a high correlation (see Figure 13).

An interesting phenomenon is that since 2011, the 10-year bond yield has a high linkage with social financing, but the correlation with the change of money supply has obviously decreased (see Figure 14).Theoretically speaking, the growth rate of M2 should be inversely related to the interest rate, but this relationship is obviously weakened after 2011. The main reasons behind this are as follows: On the one hand, with the acceleration of domestic interest rate marketization, coupled with the rapid development of financial innovation and disintermediation, China’s monetary control mode is gradually shifting from monetary quantity control to price control, which leads to the weakening of the correlation between money supply and economic growth and interest rate level; On the other hand, the money supply M2 reflects more how strong the countercyclical policy is than the growth of the real economy. Different from M2, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is consistent with the growth rate of social financing, which reflects that the domestic interest rate depends more on the financing demand of the real economy, and the financing demand is behind the growth of the real economy, especially the strong and weak changes of domestic demand. In the final analysis, economic growth is still the decisive force leading the trend of medium and long-term interest rates.

(4) Summary

To sum up, the domestic interest rate level is determined by the multiple objectives of monetary policy, but the core factors that affect our interest rate level at present are still economic growth and inflation, and with the obvious slowdown of domestic price fluctuations in recent years, the former plays a leading role in determining the direction of interest rate changes. In addition, factors such as financial stability and exchange rate can not dominate the direction of interest rate changes, but will strengthen the trend of interest rate changes and increase its fluctuation range. When the economy is in the recovery channel, financial risk prevention and other goals will push interest rates up; When the economy is in a downward cycle, financial risk prevention, exchange rate stability and other goals need to make way for economic growth, and interest rates generally fluctuate and fall.

Second, the short-term trend of domestic interest rates: first, the fluctuation bottomed out, and then the probability of recovery was too high.

(A) Based on the interest rate analysis framework: the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may bottom out first and then rise.

1. The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term.

Whether the PPI price index has dropped first or the current replenishment time has reached the highest level in history, it is a high probability event for China to enter a new round of destocking cycle in the future (see Figure 15). What needs to be pointed out here is that since 2021, the growth rate of domestic inventory has been greatly deviated from the growth rate of GDP and the trend of interest rate level, that is, while enterprises replenish inventory, the economic growth rate has dropped rapidly and sharply, and the interest rate has also dropped (see Figure 16). The reason is that the macro-and micro-policies have been tightened simultaneously in 2021, which has led to the rapid and substantial reduction of the leverage ratio of entities (see Figure 17). Coupled with the epidemic disturbance this year, demand has shrunk rapidly and inventory has been passively improved. Therefore, to judge the future trend of economy and interest rate, we need to comprehensively consider many factors such as inventory cycle, epidemic situation and counter-cyclical policy, and we can’t just observe one indicator of inventory cycle.

It is expected that the probability of weak economic fundamentals in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply.First, with the marginal alleviation of the short-term impact of the epidemic, the recovery of people flow and logistics, and the slight stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of social integration, the leading indicator of the economy (see Figure 18-19), the marginal recovery of the domestic economic growth rate in the second half of the year can be expected from the "deep pit" of 0.4% (constant price) in the second quarter. Second, the inventory cycle has entered a new round of decline channel, which will inevitably restrict the economic recovery. Third, although the growth rate of domestic social integration has stabilized and rebounded, the structure mainly relies on the financial front, and the credit growth rate is still falling, reflecting that the problem of insufficient effective social demand is severe and the economic recovery should not be overestimated. Looking at the extended cycle, China’s credit growth has been difficult in recent years, mainly due to the weakening trend of infrastructure and real estate, which used to have a large credit demand (see Figure 20), while the demand for other loans with relatively small volume is difficult to make up for the credit demand gap, which leads to the decline or normalization of China’s credit growth rate during the shift of new and old kinetic energy, which also means that the mode of stimulating economic growth by financial expansion is unsustainable, and it is necessary to cultivate new kinetic energy and new social purchasing power, create new credit demand, and smoothly spend the shift of growth rate.

2. Short-term inflationary pressure rises, which supports the upward trend of interest rates.

According to historical experience, when the domestic prices of pigs, oil and grain rise in resonance, the inflationary pressure tends to be greater (continuously exceeding the inflation target of 3%). On the contrary, if the prices of pigs and oil hedge each other and the food price is moderate, the inflation risk is relatively small and the time for the price to continue to rise is relatively short (see Figure 21).

Looking into the future, influenced by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig food prices, the high oil prices, the recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around 3% or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates.

First, a new round of "pig cycle" has been launched, and this round of pig price increase is second only to the African swine fever period in 2019.Historical experience shows that each round of "pig cycle" in China lasts about four years, and the first 1.5-2 years are the upward period of prices. In April this year, the domestic pork price went down to the stage low point, which is about four years from the starting point of the last cycle. Since May, the pig price has continued to rise, indicating that a new round of "pig cycle" has started, and it may usher in an upward period of more than one year in the future. Judging from the increase of this round of pig cycle, due to the weak demand recovery and the slow speed of supply, it is expected that the increase of pig price in this round will hardly exceed that of African swine fever in 2019. However, at the end of July, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities has risen to 29 yuan/kg, and extreme weather may have a certain negative impact on the supply of pigs. In the future, the pig price will probably continue to rise moderately (see Figure 22), and the increase is expected to exceed several rounds of pig cycles that began in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Second, the rise of international food prices is superimposed on extreme weather, and the risk of food price fluctuation in China may increase in the future.Benefiting from the low dependence of China’s three staple foods on foreign countries and sufficient domestic stocks, the increase in international food prices in the first half of the year has relatively little impact on China, which mainly drives domestic CPI through cost channels. However, two factors may increase the risk of food price fluctuation in China in the future. First, the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on global food prices, such as reduced grain production, rising grain production costs and slowing food trade, has yet to be revealed. In addition, the rise of food protectionism (the number of countries that issued food export bans in 2022 was as high as 24, second only to the 28 in 2008 food crisis), it is hard to say that the warning of future global food crisis has been lifted. Second, the impact of extreme weather on the global and China’s food prices may have increased: on the one hand, according to the statistics of the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July this year was the second hottest July in the world since statistics were available in 1880, and China also ushered in the hottest summer since statistics were available in 1961. It is expected that the negative impact of high temperature and dry weather on food production will gradually emerge; On the other hand, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that there is a 60% probability that La Nina will continue from December 2022 to February 2023, which means that a rare "triple" La Nina climate event may occur this year, and the world will face the test of cold winter, or further push up the global and Chinese food prices (see Figure 23-24).

Third, international oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high position, and China’s imported inflationary pressure still exists.For example, geopolitical conflicts and global energy transformation will restrict the improvement of this round of crude oil supply, and the cold winter weather is expected to partially hedge the impact of the decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic downturn. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a high position in a high probability during the year.

Fourth, abundant domestic liquidity and improved consumer demand will also support the rise of CPI center. On the one hand,Economic recovery after the epidemic is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate and increasing residents’ income, thus boosting residents’ consumption ability and willingness. In addition, after the epidemic is controlled, the consumption scene has improved, and residents have accumulated rich savings in the early stage (see Figure 25), which has accumulated energy for future consumption demand recovery.On the other hand,Since the second half of last year, the domestic money supply has been loose, and the growth rate of M2 has increased from a low of 8.2% in August last year to 12% in July this year, which is much higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, setting a new high since the outbreak, and will also support the rise of CPI center.

3. The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation of wide currency into wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on interest rates.

First, the spread between China and the United States may remain upside down for a long time, which will increase the upward pressure on interest rates through exchange rate channels.Affected by high inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates four times during the year, raising the target interest rate of the federal funds from 0-0.25% to 2.25-2.5% (see Figure 26), and the Fed is still on the way to continue raising interest rates during the year. During the same period, the pressure of steady growth of domestic economy was great, and interest rates were cut twice during the year. The dislocation of financial cycles between China and the United States deepened, and the yields of 10-year government bonds of the two countries continued to be upside down. This trend will continue in the short term. According to historical experience, the falling or even upside-down spread between China and the United States will increase the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow (see Figure 27). In order to take into account the external balance, domestic monetary policy easing will be restrained to some extent.

Second, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, it will also restrict the downside of interest rates.Since the beginning of this year, domestic real estate-related credit has shrunk sharply, and the proportion of new real estate loans to all new credit has turned negative in the second quarter (see Figure 28), indicating that the repayment scale of residents and housing enterprises has exceeded the amount of real estate loans lent by banks. Affected by this, the transmission of domestic wide money to wide credit has been impeded. In July, the difference between the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2 hit a new low since statistics were available (see Figure 14). However, in the future, the positive factors have increased significantly. For example, after the 5-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 15BP again on August 22, the domestic personal housing loan interest rate may have been lower than the 2016 low, only slightly higher than that after the 2008 financial crisis. Generally speaking, the mortgage interest rate is about 6 months ahead of the growth rate of real estate loans. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic mortgage interest rate has continued to fall rapidly, which indicates that the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up in the future (see Figure 29). With the gradual recovery of real estate credit from a very low position and the continuous efforts of "one city, one policy", the transformation from wide currency to wide credit is expected to accelerate, which will restrict the downward space of interest rates in the future.

To sum up, the economic recovery is weak and the regulatory policies are difficult to tighten, but the inflationary pressure is increasing, the spread between China and the United States continues to be upside down, and the wide currency is transformed into wide credit. It is expected that the interest rate will have limited room for further decline in the current position. In the next few quarters, the domestic 10-year national debt income will be the first to oscillate and bottom out, and the probability of rising later is too high.

(B) Based on quantitative analysis: the current yield of 10-year treasury bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and the high probability gradually converges upward.

In the medium and long term, the market interest rate should be equivalent to the desirable interest rate level that can not only ensure the economic operation at the potential output level, but also achieve the goals of price stability, full employment and financial stability. In this paper, the general Taylor rule method is used to measure the desirable interest rate level in China, and it is compared with the market interest rate to see whether there is overshoot at present, and thus to judge the future market interest rate trend.

According to Taylor rule, the interest rate level is mainly determined by inflation gap and output gap. With the diversification of the central bank’s monetary policy objectives and the development of financial markets, we add exchange rate and social financing scale factors to the basic Taylor rule to fit and measure the current acceptable level of China’s 10-year national debt yield. Taylor’s rule regression equation shows that the current yield level of ten-year treasury bonds is obviously lower than the desired interest rate level (see Figure 30), which means that the interest rate level is lower than the desired interest rate level that matches the current economic growth, prices, exchange rate and liquidity. According to past experience, when the interest rate gap (market interest rate-desirable interest rate) falls below -0.4%, the probability of market interest rate converging upward to desirable interest rate is greater, and it is only a matter of time before the market interest rate rises in the future.

(3) Based on historical experience: If there is no unexpected impact, the interest rate will fall first and then rise after the interest rate cut boots land.

No matter from the economic fundamentals or quantitative point of view, we all think that the interest rate will converge marginally in the future with a high probability, but the market is still skeptical about whether the interest rate will really go up. There is an important reason behind it, that is, the economic data in July was significantly less than expected, and after the loan suspension risk incident, the central bank unexpectedly lowered the policy interest rates of MLF and OMO on August 15, which rekindled the market’s expectation of starting a new round of interest rate reduction cycle in China.

Historical experience does show that after the central bank cuts interest rates continuously, the market interest rate will tend to decline in the short term, but it also shows that as long as the credit data improves and the economy gradually stabilizes after the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year government bonds will open the recovery channel after the interest rate cut boots land. For example, in 2012 and 2019, there were unexpected interest rate cuts, but after that, interest rates rebounded with the improvement of the economy, rather than falling. Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether to continue to cut interest rates after cutting interest rates, depending on the marginal changes in economic fundamentals.

1. In 2012, interest rates were cut twice in a row: the yield of ten-year government bonds only dropped by 14BP, and then the journey of recovery began.

After the second quarter of 2011, the domestic economy continued to slow down. However, because the CPI has been above 3%, the central bank is cautious in cutting interest rates, mainly by lowering the RRR to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (see Figure 31-32). Until mid-2012, with the CPI growth rate falling below 3%, coupled with the superimposed influence of the economic downturn, repeated wide credit (see Figure 33) and the further intensification of the European debt crisis caused by bank runs in overseas Greece, the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July respectively (see Figure 32). After two interest rate cuts, the cumulative maximum downward rate of 10-year treasury bond yield is about 14BP. However, as the credit growth rate announced after the interest rate cut returned to the upward trend, the economy gradually confirmed its stabilization, and the yield of 10-year government bonds began to turn upside down, starting an upward cycle (see Figure 32-33).

2. Unexpected interest rate cut in 2019: The yield of ten-year government bonds fell by about 9BP, and the downside was reopened after the outbreak of the epidemic.

After the second half of 2018, the domestic economy continued to slow down, and the CPI growth rate was less than 3% in the same period (see Figure 34). In order to prevent financial risks, the central bank was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and also chose to lower the RRR first to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (4 RRR cuts in 2018 and 5 RRR cuts in 2019), which promoted the growth rate of domestic social integration and credit to continue to rise to March 2019. However, due to the escalation of trade friction and the occurrence of risk events such as Baoshang Bank, the domestic credit contraction pressure increased significantly in 2019, and the credit growth rate dropped again after the first quarter of the same year. At the same time, the PMI index was below 50% of threshold for six consecutive months, and the downward pressure on the economy increased (see Figure 35-36). Therefore, although the CPI growth rate broke through 3% from September to October in 2019 (the soaring pork price increased the structural inflationary pressure), after the PMI fell to 49.3% in October, hitting an eight-month low, the central bank cut the MLF interest rate by 5BP in early November (see Figure 35). After the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped by about 9BP, and then gradually stabilized. At the end of December, the COVID-19 outbreak broke out in China, which further reopened the downward space of interest rates (see Figure 35).

To sum up, during the economic downturn in 2012 and 2019, the central bank was cautious about cutting interest rates at first. However, due to some unexpected risk events, continuous credit contraction and sustained downward pressure on the economy, the central bank still took interest rate cuts at the end of the economic downturn, and the timing of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Both rounds of interest rate cuts pushed interest rates down slightly in the short term, but in 2012, as the economy stabilized, interest rates quickly turned upward, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 further opened up the downside of interest rates.

Similar to 2012 and 2019, in 2022, the central bank was also cautious about comprehensively lowering the policy interest rate. For example, after the interest rate was cut by 10BP in January 2022, despite the unexpected rebound of domestic epidemic in the second quarter, the central bank did not immediately reduce the policy interest rate. It was not until July that the economy turned downward again on the way to recovery and there were twists and turns in credit easing that the central bank cut interest rates again beyond expectations (see Figure 37-38). According to the experience of two rounds of interest rate cuts that exceeded expectations in 2012 and 2019, if the domestic economy gradually stabilizes in the short term, the transformation from wide currency to wide credit accelerates, and the yield of 10-year government bonds drops slightly, the recovery channel will be gradually started; If there is an unexpected risk event, such as the real estate recovery continues to be less than expected, the risk spreads to other fields or even systemic risks, it is also expected that the central bank will cut interest rates quickly, continuously and substantially, and the interest rate center is expected to drop significantly again until the economy stabilizes, but at present, this probability is too small.

(4) Summary

Based on the analysis of the above three perspectives, it is estimated that the yield of domestic 10-year government bonds will probably bottom out first and then rise in the next few quarters:1)The weak recovery of domestic economy does not support a sharp rise in interest rates in the short term, and even does not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates again. However, with the increasing pressure to stabilize prices and exchange rates, the constraints on monetary easing are also obvious. In addition, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future will increase. It is only a question of whether the recovery speed or slope can be as expected, and the trend of interest rate recovery is relatively clear.2)At present, the domestic market interest rate has been much lower than the desired interest rate level, and it is only a matter of time before it converges upward;3)Historical experience shows that the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term, but if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economy is confirmed to stabilize, the interest rate will open a recovery channel.

In addition, the current real interest rate level in China is not high, and monetary policy is constrained by insufficient demand. The effect of monetary easing on stimulating economic growth is limited, but it may bring more sequelae. Unless it encounters extreme unexpected shocks, it is not necessary to continue to loosen the currency substantially. First, China’s real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) has been continuously lower than the actual economic growth rate. Governor Yi Gang of the Central Bank pointed out in the article "Interest Rate System and Interest Rate Marketization Reform in China" that the real interest rate R after inflation adjustment should be equal to the real economic growth rate G. However, most of the time, the real interest rate in China is lower than the actual economic growth rate, which tends to distort the allocation of financial resources and bring about inflation, asset price bubbles, idle funds and other problems. At present, the real interest rate of RMB loans in China has been at a low level below 1.5% for five consecutive quarters (see Figure 39), and the growth rate has been lower than the real GDP except for the second quarter of this year. Second, the core contradiction facing China’s economy at present is insufficient effective demand. Monetary easing is constrained by banks’ reluctance to borrow and enterprises’ reluctance to borrow, and it is difficult for monetary policy to promote the "soft rope". Therefore, fiscal policy needs more efforts. Monetary policy should cooperate with fiscal policy to provide suitable liquidity and financing environment, and blindly easing will not help accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the current economic structure.

   This article was first published on WeChat WeChat official account: Seeing the Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

(Editor: Song Zheng HN002)

Execute on the 7 th! The price of nucleic acid testing in Covid-19, Jiangsu Province was adjusted to 65 yuan/time.

  CCTV News:According to the website of Jiangsu Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau, on August 6th, Jiangsu Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau and Jiangsu Provincial Health and Wellness Committee jointly issued the Notice of Jiangsu Provincial Health and Wellness Committee of Jiangsu Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau on Reducing the Price of novel coronavirus in Public Medical Institutions, which will be implemented at 0: 00 on August 7th. The full text is as follows:

  The Municipal Medical Security Bureau and the Health and Wellness Committee are all medical institutions in Ning Province (Ministry):

  In order to further improve the prevention and control of epidemic situation, standardize the price behavior of nucleic acid testing projects in novel coronavirus, reduce the testing price and reduce the burden on the masses, relevant matters are hereby notified as follows:

  1. Adjust the price of novel coronavirus nucleic acid testing (code 250403092, L250403092) in the Notice of Jiangsu Provincial Health and Health Committee of Jiangsu Provincial Medical Insurance Bureau on Adjusting the Price of Related Testing Items in novel coronavirus (Su Medical Insurance Fa [2021] No.3) to 65 yuan/time, with the project connotation unchanged and clearly defined as the price of single sampling and single testing.

  Second, the original description of novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection (code 250403092-a) only refers to "mixed detection, which is limited to large-scale crowd screening organized by the government" and is adjusted to "mixed detection, including individual mixed sampling detection and large-scale crowd screening organized by the government". Medical institutions are allowed to provide testing services for inpatients and accompanying personnel by mixed sampling, and the fees are charged according to novel coronavirus nucleic acid testing (code 250403092-a).

  Three, the medical insurance payment policy is still in accordance with the original provisions.

  This notice will be implemented from 0: 00 on August 7, 2021.

  Jiangsu Provincial Health Security Bureau Jiangsu Provincial Health and Wellness Committee

  August 6, 2021

Draw theoretical innovation wisdom from people’s creation.

  Author: He Junming and Sun Huayu (both are special researchers of Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought Research Center, the supreme leader of Fujian Province, and professors of Marxism College of Xiamen University of Technology).

  When presiding over the sixth collective study in the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "we should pay attention to drawing theoretical innovation wisdom from the creation of the masses". If a society wants to be prosperous and full of vigor and vitality, it must constantly carry out theoretical innovation. People’s nature is the essential attribute of Marxism. The Party’s theory comes from the people, for the people and for the benefit of the people. The people’s creative practice is an inexhaustible source of theoretical innovation. The important exposition of the Supreme Leader General Secretary adheres to the Marxist historical materialism and the standpoint of people first, which clarifies the source of the party’s theoretical innovation and provides a fundamental follow-up for constantly writing a new chapter in the modernization of Marxism in China.

  The people are the creators of history.

  Marx and Engels systematically thought about the relationship between man and history, holding that the primary premise of human history is "the existence of living individuals", and pointed out that history is the history of living people in material form, not the history of spirit or will. Social existence determines social consciousness and mode of production determines social development, which is the basic viewpoint of Marxist historical materialism. Material production activities are the basic conditions of all history, and all social life is practical in essence. Marx clearly pointed out in the Manuscript of Economics and Philosophy in 1844 that history "is nothing more than a process in which people are born through human labor, and it is a process in which nature generates for people". Man creates history through his own practical activities, and social history is composed of his practical activities, and man is the real subject of social history.

  The people are the creators of material wealth and spiritual wealth. Marxist historical materialism holds that people’s practical activities not only create an objective material world, but also create a rich spiritual world. The people are the creators of material wealth. Material production is the premise of all history. Without certain material production, there can be no human history. The material materials needed for human survival and development are produced by the broad masses of the people. As the main body of material production activities, the people constantly accumulate production experience in practice, innovate and create production technologies, and promote the development of productive forces and the growth of social material wealth. The people are also creators of spiritual wealth. Social existence determines social consciousness, which is a reflection of social existence. The production practice of the people provides a material basis for the creation of spiritual wealth, and all spiritual wealth is rooted in the practical activities of the people.

  General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "The people are the driving force to create history, and we communist party people should never forget this most basic truth of historical materialism." Productivity is the fundamental driving force for the development of human society. The contradictory movement between productivity and production relations promotes the continuous development of human society, and the people are the most active factors for the transformation of productivity. The people’s subjective practical activities constitute the foundation of social life, and all social changes are based on this foundation. While creating material wealth and spiritual wealth, the people also create and transform social relations of production. Any social change cannot be separated from the people’s active participation and the people’s enthusiasm and initiative. Marx and Engels pointed out that "historical activities are the activities of the masses, and with the deepening of historical activities, it will certainly expand the ranks of the masses." Although heroes also play an important role in historical development and change, social change ultimately depends on the will, wishes and interests of the broad masses of the people. From the perspective of historical materialism, only the people are the real creators of history and the fundamental driving force for social change and social reform and development.

  2. People’s creative practice is an inexhaustible source of theoretical innovation.

  Great times need great theories. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Resolution on the Great Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party’s Centennial Struggle takes "persisting in theoretical innovation" as one of the historical experiences of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s Centennial Struggle, and points out: "As long as we are brave enough to combine new practices and constantly promote theoretical innovation and be good at guiding new practices with new theories, we will certainly be able to show Marxism a stronger and more convincing truth force on the land of China." The reason why our party can make great achievements in various historical periods lies in mastering Marxist scientific theory and constantly promoting theoretical innovation in combination with new realities. We should constantly deepen our understanding of the regularity of the party’s theoretical innovation and achieve more fruitful theoretical innovation results in the new era and new journey.

  Marxist historical materialism points out that theory is a rational social consciousness, and theoretical innovation is the need of the unity of social existence and social consciousness, which cannot be divorced from the objective law that social existence determines social consciousness and social consciousness reacts on social existence. On the basis of material production and spiritual production, people’s understanding of truth is refined and summed up in the cycle from sensibility to rationality to practice. Theoretical innovation must be based on social practice, and the main body of practice is the people. Marxism defines the people’s dominant position in social production practice and points out the "creative" nature of the people in the process of complex social practice. Marxism is a theory that stands for the people and speaks for them. It was founded to change people’s destiny and enriched and developed in people’s practice of seeking liberation. the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a political party guided by Marxism. To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, it must be closely combined with people’s creative practice, which is an inexhaustible source of Marxist theoretical innovation.

  Looking back on the history of the Party’s struggle for a hundred years, we can see that the reason why our Party has made great achievements in various historical periods of revolution, construction and reform, and has been able to lead the people to accomplish arduous tasks that other political forces in China can’t, lies in mastering Marxist scientific theory and constantly promoting theoretical innovation in light of new realities. He has made great theoretical achievements such as Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Theory of Three Represents, Scientific Outlook on Development and Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era, and has always adhered to emancipating the mind, seeking truth from facts, advancing with the times, seeking truth and being pragmatic, which has made Marxism glow with great vitality in China and enabled the Party to master a powerful force of truth. The party’s theoretical innovation results all come from people’s wisdom, people’s exploration and people’s creation. Adhering to the people’s supremacy is a profound summary of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s valuable experience in the past 100 years and an unswerving pursuit of value, which is an important embodiment of Marxist people’s view. History has created the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the people’s exploration and struggle, and the Communist Party of China (CPC) led the people to create new historical glory. During the period of new-democratic revolution, socialist revolution and construction, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people, with Comrade Mao Zedong as the main representative, combined the basic principles of Marxism with China’s concrete reality, insisted on integrating theory with practice and keeping close contact with the masses, and with the strong support and sincere support of the broad masses of the people, absorbed the wisdom of the masses and relied on the strength of the people, and founded Mao Zedong Thought through hard exploration. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out, "As long as we rely on the people,Firmly believe that the creativity of the people is endless, so trust the people and become one with them, and then any difficulties can be overcome. " In the new era of reform, opening up and socialist modernization, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people continue to rely on the creative practice of the people and lead the cause development with theoretical innovation. At the end of 1970s, the practice of "all-in-one contract" from Xiaogang Village, Fengyang, Anhui Province directly started the rural reform in China. The party’s major theoretical innovations all come from the people’s creative practice, which shows the people’s creative wisdom. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the people of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with the Supreme Leader as the main representative, have persisted in combining the basic principles of Marxism with the concrete reality of China and the excellent traditional Chinese culture, scientifically answered the major issues of the times such as what kind of Socialism with Chinese characteristics and how to uphold and develop Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, and created the Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era. The Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the New Era is contemporary China Marxism and 21st century Marxism, and it is the essence of Chinese culture and China spirit, which has achieved a new leap in the modernization of Marxism in China.

  3. To promote the theoretical innovation of the Party, we must follow the mass line.

  To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, we must go deep into the people and do a good job of investigation and research. The people are the creators of history and the decisive force to promote social development and change. Investigation and research is the heirloom of our party, the foundation of seeking things and the way to achieve things. Investigation is the source of insight. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has attached great importance to investigation and research. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader took the lead in setting an example and went deep into the people. The footprints of investigation and research spread all over the country, setting a shining example for the whole party to do a good job in investigation and research. Going deep into the people to do a good job in investigation and research is the basis of continuously promoting the theoretical innovation of the Party, and it is also the practical need to keep sober and firm in solving the unique problems of the big party and answer the "six how to always". To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, we must not build a car behind closed doors, sit and talk about the road, and become a pipe dream. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed, "We should worship the people as teachers, learn from the people, put down our airs, throw ourselves down, be grounded, understand the situation, conduct in-depth investigation and study, dissect sparrows, find typical examples, truly find out the problems faced by the masses, reflect their opinions and sum up the experience created by the masses." The social practice of the masses is not only the object of our investigation and study, but also the inexhaustible source of our correct understanding. The masses not only know the actual situation best, but also contain the wisdom and strength to solve problems. Only by doing a good job of investigation and study can we continuously promote the party’s theoretical innovation.

  Promoting the Party’s theoretical innovation must respect the people’s initiative. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "we should respect the people’s initiative, pay attention to summing up fresh experiences from the people’s creative practice, upgrade to rational understanding and refine new theoretical achievements". Respecting the people’s initiative is determined by the nature and purpose of our party, which embodies the Marxist historical values. The development of society is always based on giving full play to people’s subjective initiative and respecting people’s initiative. The will, desire, requirement and practice of the people reflect the trend of social development and embody the law of social development. At present, the changes of the world, times and history are unfolding in an unprecedented way. The "two overall situations" are accelerating and interacting deeply. China’s development has entered a period in which strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase. It is even more necessary for us to persist in taking the people as the center, respect the people’s initiative, fully stimulate the creative power contained in the people, pay attention to the unity of top-level design and consultation with the people, and constantly gain new understanding from summing up the people’s creative practice.

  Let the party’s innovative theory penetrate into the hearts of hundreds of millions of people. Report to the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out that it is necessary to "build a socialist ideology with strong cohesion and leading power" and "improve the system of arming the whole party, educating the people and guiding practice with the Party’s innovative theory". If great thoughts want generate’s great strength, they must be transformed into concrete social practice, rely on the people as the main body of social practice, and make the innovation theory consciously recognized and sincerely supported by the people, making it a powerful ideological weapon to guide the people to understand and transform the world. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed, "Insist on inner-party education to guide and drive the learning of the whole society, and let the party’s innovative theory ‘ Fly into the homes of ordinary people ’ " . Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era is contemporary China Marxism and 21st century Marxism, and it is the essence of Chinese culture and China spirit. We should persist in casting our souls with Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era, carry out in-depth study, publicity and interpretation in the whole party and society, guide the broad masses of party member, cadres and the masses to deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishment", strengthen the "four consciousnesses", strengthen the "four self-confidences" and achieve the "two maintenance".Consciously maintain a high degree of unity with the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core in ideological and political actions, and unite and struggle for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way. It is necessary to establish a people-centered work orientation, combine serving the people with guiding them to learn the Party’s innovative theory, grasp the theoretical concerns of the people, constantly innovate theoretical propaganda methods, and strive to make the Party’s innovative theory penetrate into the hearts of hundreds of millions of people and become a theory that is grounded, gathers people’s wisdom, conforms to the will of the people, and wins the hearts of the people, bringing together the majestic forces for building a socialist modern country and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

DJI’s new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Mavic 3 family is a very important UAV product line in DJI, among which Mavic 3 and Mavic 3 Cine, the consumer flagship UAVs, were first unveiled, and then Mavic 3E and Mavic 3T, the small industrial UAVs, were released.

Now, the Mavic 3 product line continues to grow, and DJI Mavic 3 Classic has also come to users. This drone allows users to experience the charm brought by more cost-effective flagship aerial photography products.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Special statement: due to special reasons in Beijing, it is impossible to test the UAV. The aerial photography material of this article is provided by @ Image Dog. Thank you.After the aerial photography of drones is lifted, we will have a detailed flight experience and launch another article to share with you.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic retains a 20-megapixel 4/3-frame Hasselblad camera with the highest video specification of 5.1K50p. It also supports 4K 60P recording and 4K 120P slow-motion recording, supports Hasselblad natural color solution (HNCS), and has the best photo and video recording capability among consumer drones.

Omni-directional obstacle avoidance combined with APAS 5.0 system can make DJI Mavic 3 Classic fly more safely and let users experience the fun of aerial photography with more confidence. The image transmission scheme of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is DJI O3+, and the 1080P 60fps image transmission at the farthest distance of 15 kilometers makes it easier for us to control flight and aerial photography.

The endurance of 46 minutes allows us to fully experience flight and aerial photography.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

At present, DJI Mavic 3 Classic is divided into three versions, DJI Mavic 3 Classic stand-alone version (aircraft only), the price is 9288 yuan; DJI Mavic 3 Classic(RC-N1 remote control version), the price is 9888 yuan; DJI Mavic 3 Classic(RC remote control version), the price is 10888 yuan.

Finally, there is a DJI Mavic 3 Classic flying endurance package, the price is 2999 yuan. (Compared with the standard version of Mavic 3, the official selling price of the remote control version of DJI Mavic 3 Classic RC-N1 is directly reduced by 3,000 yuan.)

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Due to the problem of express transportation under the epidemic situation, this time we got the RC remote control version of DJI Mavic 3 Classic, two extra batteries and the charging housekeeper in the Changfei battery pack, and the rest of the accessories were delivered in place by express delivery, and then we will give you a supplementary picture reward.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic(RC remote control version) and packaging of battery and charging housekeeper

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.
All the contents of DJI Mavic 3 Classic(RC Remote Control Edition)

Core parameters of DJI Mavic 3 Classic:

Image system:4/3 frame 20 megapixel CMOS                 

The equivalent focal length is 24mm, the aperture range is F2.8-F11, and the closest focusing distance is 1 meter.                 

Support Hasselblad Natural Color Solution (HNCS)                 

Native 12.8 file dynamic range

Late space:Support 10bit D-Log.

Maximum video specification:5.1K 50P/4K 120P/FHD 200P

Encoding format:H.264/H.265, with a maximum bit rate of 200Mbps.

Obstacle avoidance ability:Omnidirectional perception obstacle avoidance

Obstacle avoidance system:APAS 5.0

Picture transmission system:DJI OcuSync 3.0+                 

The image transmission distance is 15 kilometers, and the picture is 1080P 60fps.

Maximum flight time:46 minutes

Maximum hovering time:40 minutes

Maximum cruising range:30 kilometers

Maximum rising speed:1 m/s (smooth gear)                         

6 m/s (normal gear)                         

8 m/s (sports gear)

Maximum descent speed:1 m/s (smooth gear)                       

6 m/s (normal gear)                         

6 m/s (sports gear)

Maximum horizontal flight speed:5 m/s (smooth gear)                               

16 m/s (ordinary gear)                               

21 m/s (sports gear)

Maximum wind resistance speed:12 m/s

Maximum takeoff altitude:6000 meters

On-board memory:8GB (available space is about 7.2GB)

Charging:65W fast charging of GaN compatible with PD protocol, supporting camera and computer charging.

UAV take-off weight:895 grams

Size:Folding (without paddle): 221 mm x 96.3 mm x 90.3 mm (length x width x height)         

Deployment (without paddle): 347.5 mm × 283 mm × 107.7 mm (length× width× height)

Next, we will bring the evaluation and introduction of DJI Mavic 3 Classic UAV.

Appearance: consistent with Mavic 3 family design

The design language of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is consistent with the Mavic 3 family, and the biggest difference is the modeling part of the image system.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Storage protective cover of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Storage protective cover of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI Mavic 3 Classic continues Mavic 3′ s storage protective cover design, which can protect the whole camera module, obstacle avoidance vision camera and bind the blades at the same time. With this storage protective cover, we don’t have to worry about damage even if we carry DJI Mavic 3 Classic alone.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The folded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The folded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The expanded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The expanded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The expanded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The expanded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The expanded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

The expanded state of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

It can be seen that the DJI Mavic 3 Classic still adopts the folding method, and the volume control of the storage is excellent, which is also convenient for us to travel and carry. After deployment, the fuselage of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is larger than that of Air Series, but thanks to its excellent configuration and aerodynamic design, the wind resistance of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is 35% lower than that of Mavic 2 Pro. This plays a vital role in improving endurance.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

4/3 format Hasselblad camera of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

It can be seen that compared with DJI Mavic 3, the biggest difference of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is the design of the lens part. DJI Mavic 3 Classic cancels the telephoto lens design, improves the cost performance, and can better satisfy users who only want to experience the Hasselblad camera experience with ultra-high quality. The image system of DJI Mavic 3 Classic adopts a CMOS sensor design with 20 megapixels and 4/3 frames, which can shoot videos with the highest specifications of 5.1K 50P and 4K 120P, with a native dynamic range of 12.8 files, and supports Hasselblad Natural Color Solution (HNCS) and 10bit D-Log.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Cooling system of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Cooling system of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Cooling system of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

In order to achieve a better flight and aerial photography experience, DJI Mavic 3 Classic provides a large number of heat dissipation designs. At the top of the fuselage, there are large air inlets and fins at the head and tail. In particular, the design of a large-area heat dissipation area at the bottom of the fuselage can better help the drone to cool down during operation.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Safety blade of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI Mavic 3 Classic also provides safety blades, which is consistent with Mavic 3 family. The safety blade is different from the previous UAV blades, and its end is made of plastic material (orange part), that is, the end of the blade is soft. DJI came to the conclusion through experiments that, even if the safety blade passes through an object during flight, it will generally only leave a scratch, and it will not be directly split. But even so, it is not recommended that you try, which may cause a bomber or your own safety hazards.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Card slot and interface of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

The card slot and interface of DJI Mavic 3 Classic are designed above the battery with a protective cover. DJI Mavic 3 Classic adopts USB-C interface and supports TF card (Micro SD card). At the same time, the drone itself has 8GB of body memory for emergency use.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Battery and charging housekeeper of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Fast charging charger of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

The battery of DJI Mavic 3 Classic, like Mavic 3, has the capacity of 5000mAh and 77Wh, and the voltage is 15.4V. This battery provides the longest battery life of 46 minutes and the longest cruising range of up to 30 kilometers.

In addition, DJI Mavic 3 Classic is equipped with a GaN (gallium nitride) fast charging charger with a power of 65W, which is compatible with PD protocol. Besides charging the battery of DJI Mavic 3 Classic, it can also charge laptops, cameras and other devices.

Image system: 4/3 format Hasselblad camera is very powerful.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic inherits the design of this series of 4/3 format Hasselblad lenses, with 20 million pixels, equivalent to 24mm focal length and aperture range F2.8-F11. The 4/3 frame is what we often call M4/3 frame. However, in order to meet the take-off weight and size requirements of UAV, DJI and Hasselblad jointly developed a brand-new design.

That is to say, this lightweight and compact UAV lens can not only meet the requirements of image quality and resolution of 4/3 frames, but also meet the requirements of size, weight and power consumption required by DJI Mavic 3 Classic.

4/3 frame is the largest sensor size of consumer UAV at present. As the saying goes, the bottom is the first step to crush people. Thanks to the CMOS sensor with the bottom, DJI Mavic 3 Classic can bring excellent photography and video capabilities, not only better dynamic range performance, but also better color performance and resolution.

At the same time, in the dark environment, 4/3 frame can bring better noise suppression effect and make our dark video picture more pure. The newly added night video, cruise control and other functions can better serve users, so that users who have just stepped into photography can easily complete the shooting of various styles of videos.

The video specification of DJI Mavic 3 Classic also inherits the strength of Mavic 3 family, and supports the video specification of up to 5.1K 50P, and also supports the slow-motion video capture of 4K 120P. DJI Mavic 3 Classic supports 10-bit D-log, which provides a foundation for our later stage and color matching space. Supporting Hasselblad Natural Color Solution (HNCS) can make its color effect even better.

Through the video, we can easily understand the core competitiveness brought by the 4/3 format Hasselblad camera. Video is not only rich in details, but also remarkable in color expression, which can restore natural colors very accurately, as if it were the color appearance of the real world seen by our naked eyes.

In addition, the video itself has a dynamic range of 12.8 files, which is very helpful for later repair and adjustment. That is to say, with the help of DJI Mavic 3 Classic, we can shoot professional-grade videos, which can be used for video production in professional fields.

In terms of focusing, the experience effect of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is the same as that of DJI Mavic 3, and the focusing experience is excellent, just like we are using the camera’s focusing system. For users, it is more reassuring to hand over the focus to DJI Mavic 3 Classic to complete it by themselves.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.
DJI Mavic 3 Classic real shot sample

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic real shot sample

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic real shot sample

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic real shot sample

In the photo section, we can see that the performance of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is still remarkable. After all, it is a 20-megapixel M4/3 format camera that can fly to the sky. 20 million pixels is close to the mainstream pixel specifications of the current camera, so the photos brought by DJI Mavic 3 Classic have delicate analytical performance, which can present the details clearly and completely.

The 12-bit RAW format file provides a very large space for our later period, which can make the photos more professional. When you encounter good scenery, you can use this 4/3 format Hasselblad camera to take pictures.

Obstacle avoidance: You can fly safely by avoiding obstacles in all directions.

When Mavic 3 in DJI was launched, an upgrade that surprised users was its obstacle avoidance system, and DJI Mavic 3 Classic completely inherited this obstacle avoidance capability. In other words, DJI Mavic 3 Classic supports omni-directional obstacle avoidance capability, which is the best performance of consumer drones in obstacle avoidance at present.

What is omni-directional obstacle avoidance, that is, DJI Mavic 3 Classic can sense the 360-degree spherical range of the whole body. We often say that up, down, front, back, left and right can avoid obstacles in these directions.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Forward-looking obstacle avoidance vision sensor of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Up-looking and back-looking obstacle avoidance vision sensors of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic’s down-looking obstacle avoidance vision sensor, ToF ranging sensor and fill light.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic has designed eight vision sensors, including two fisheye cameras at the front, back and bottom, which provide a 185-degree viewing angle and can cover a wider visual area. There are also two wide-angle cameras at the top of the fuselage, and there are ToF ranging sensors and fill lights below. Together, these designs provide powerful hardware support for obstacle avoidance vision.

In terms of software, DJI Mavic 3 Classic supports APAS 5.0 obstacle avoidance system. Thanks to the improvement of system algorithm, it can help DJI Mavic 3 Classic to avoid obstacles faster, more dexterous and smarter, and ensure the UAV to fly and take aerial photos safely.

When flying, DJI Mavic 3 Classic can identify obstacles and avoid obstacles by itself, even if it only makes the plane fly forward. We can choose emergency stop or detour in the menu, and detour can also choose safe or radical, which has achieved different results. No one will take corresponding measures to avoid obstacles according to our choice.

With excellent obstacle avoidance ability, it can bring excellent intelligent following ability to users. When we are outdoors, whether we let DJI Mavic 3 Classic follow our own walking and running shooting, or follow our own riding and driving shooting, we need the powerful following ability and obstacle avoidance ability of the drone to work together.

The overall performance of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is excellent. Because its obstacle avoidance system is smarter, it will have better path planning when following, and at the same time, its recognition ability is more stable, and it can keep up and keep up well.

Return flight: advanced intelligent return flight efficiency

DJI Mavic 3 Classic also has advanced intelligent return function. In the past, the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was very unwise to return home. It needed to fly to a preset altitude, then fly back to the take-off point, and then descend. If you encounter a tall obstacle in the middle, you need to continue to climb the height and then cross the obstacle, which is time-consuming and electricity-consuming. Therefore, when we experience aerial photography, we will reserve enough power for the drone for returning flight. In this way, our experience time of aerial photography and flight will be greatly reduced.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic’s return flight ability is more intelligent and fully inherits the new skills of Mavic 3 family. During the flight, the visual processing engine of DJI Mavic 3 Classic can scan the surrounding environment in real time and build a three-dimensional environmental map. In this way, when returning, the drone will find a safe and efficient path to return.

If we return in the wild, the performance of DJI Mavic 3 Classic will not be particularly outstanding. After all, there are not too many obstacles in the wild to prevent us from returning. If you are returning in a city, especially in a city with many high-rise buildings, the intelligent return performance of DJI Mavic 3 Classic can be revealed. When encountering a tall obstacle, the drone does not climb or leap, but cleverly bypasses the obstacle and continues to return, which can save a lot of return time and electricity, and let us have more time to experience flying and aerial photography.

Image transmission: the picture is clear and stable.

The evaluation product we got this time is the remote control version of DJI Mavic 3 Classic RC, which means we got the remote control version with screen. However, both the remote controller DJI RC with screen and the remote controller DJI RC-N1 without screen have the same image transmission ability. DJI Mavic 3 Classic supports DJI O3+ image transmission, and can support the image transmission distance of up to 15 kilometers, and the transmitted images reach 1080P 60fps.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI RC remote controller

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI RC remote controller

With this set of graphic transmission system, the experience of our daily use of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is directly improved. The first is the improvement of the picture transmission. The picture of 1080P 60fps is not only clear but also very smooth, which allows us to better view the flight picture and control the composition and flight. Although it is impossible to reach the image transmission distance of 15 kilometers in a city with serious interference, this image transmission system is still very stable and can ensure our safe flight experience. Even if it is disconnected, the plane can return intelligently, so don’t worry too much.

Endurance: 46 minutes can be a happy aerial photography.

The endurance of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is also 46 minutes, which is consistent with the products of Mavic 3 family. The test version we get will contain a battery itself, as well as two extra batteries in the battery pack and the charging housekeeper, which will ensure that we have a long flight experience and aerial photography time. At present, the 46-minute battery life ranks second among the consumer-grade UAVs in DJI, and the first one is the 47-minute battery life of the Mini 3 Pro with long battery life.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

Battery and charging housekeeper of DJI Mavic 3 Classic

In the past, the average battery life of consumer-grade UAV products in DJI was around 31 minutes. Suppose we fly for 31 minutes, excluding the take-off, composition and adjustment time, which is about 10 minutes, and excluding the return time of about 6 minutes, our actual shooting time is only 15 minutes. The battery life of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is 46 minutes, so the actual shooting time can reach 30 minutes.

Summary: cost-effective flagship consumer drone

So far, our evaluation and introduction of DJI Mavic 3 Classic has come to an end. DJI Mavic 3 Classic has the same flying ability, obstacle avoidance ability, image transmission ability, endurance and so on as the consumer flagship drone DJI Mavic 3. At the same time, it also has a Hasselblad camera with 4/3 frame, which provides professional-grade imaging ability. The only difference is the telephoto camera. Of course, DJI Mavic 3 Classic has many functions that serve users, such as time-lapse photography, focus following, master shots, etc. Because these functions are completely consistent with the performance of Mavic 3, we will not repeat the test and introduction.

DJI's new UAV Mavic 3 Classic evaluation: more cost-effective.

DJI Mavic 3 Classic is a differentiated Mavic 3 family member. Compared with the current Mavic 2 Pro and Air 2S, DJI Mavic 3 Classic has flagship flight and aerial photography capabilities, which can be described as a comprehensive upgrade, and the intensity of the upgrade is still qualitatively improved. At the same time, it has high cost performance and can fully meet the upgrade needs of users.

At the same time, based on the functions of Mavic 3 family, DJI Mavic 3 Classic has also added functions such as cruise control and night video, which allows users to achieve more diversified creations.

If you just need to upgrade and think that the price of Mavic 3 exceeds the budget, then the price of DJI Mavic 3 Classic is your best choice. Through our actual experience, this drone is enough to meet the use and shooting needs of professional users, both in flight capability and imaging system.

In particular, video creators, aerial enthusiasts, video teams and studios can fully consider this product because it is a flagship drone with high cost performance.

In the future, more new members will join in, enriching the category of consumer-grade flagship drones, and users can choose DJI drones that are more suitable for them according to their own needs and budgets.

Consumer vouchers show a "multiplier effect". Hangzhou has driven consumption by nearly one billion yuan in six days.

  Hangzhou announced today that on the basis of the previous first coupon, an additional 150 million yuan will be issued for the second coupon. The coupons for this issue will be distributed from 10: 00 am on April 3, and consumers can participate in the coupon collection activities from the entrance of Alipay homepage or by searching for "Hangzhou".

  There are 1.5 million additional coupons for the second phase, each of which includes 3 coupons for 45 yuan, 35 yuan and 20 yuan. Direct deduction of cash use through Alipay when paying offline at designated merchants, valid for 7 days. Users who have received the first coupon can also apply again.

  In the past few days, consumer vouchers have become the most popular keyword in Hangzhou except the epidemic, and they are also like a needle catalyst, igniting the enthusiasm of offline consumption in Hangzhou’s "post-epidemic era". In Hangzhou Century Lianhua No.1 Supermarket, the store was crowded with orderly consumers, and there was a long queue in front of the checkout counter. Ms. Wang, a citizen, received a coupon from 50 yuan the day before. "Milk, meat, eggs, and many daily necessities, most of them were originally bought. With the coupon, you can just buy more."

  Wu Jingli of Century Lianhua Qingchun Store said that many customers come with coupons, and under the incentive of coupons, they can obviously feel the rebound of passenger flow.

  It is reported that in the three days from March 27 to 29, the sales of Century Lianhua in Hangzhou exceeded 60 million yuan. "Coupons have boosted the sales of high-end aquatic products, beef, etc., and the increase in turnover is very obvious."

  Snack bars, supermarkets, shopping malls, gas stations … … Consumer vouchers have boosted consumption, and they can be seen in almost every field of living consumption in Hangzhou. More than 10,000 pieces of Hangzhou "Xianfeng Fruit" were written off on March 27th, the first issue, and the customer unit price increased from 30 yuan to 70 yuan. Joe Doo, the person in charge of the operation, said that as of March 29th, their store had written off more than 30,000 copies.

  Hangzhou Yonghui Supermarket also ushered in a business peak because of coupons. Jiang Yajing, head of Hangzhou regional brand of Yonghui Supermarket, said that after the issuance of consumer vouchers, the daily passenger flow of the supermarket exceeded 6,000, an increase of about 70% compared with last week. On the 27th, the number of customers who paid through Alipay transactions increased by nearly 100% compared with the previous day.

  Consumer vouchers undoubtedly played the role of a catalyst, so that the consumption power that was originally suppressed by the epidemic rose rapidly. According to the data of Hangzhou Bureau of Commerce, from the issuance of the first coupon on March 27 to 16:30 on April 1, the government subsidy of 66.95 million yuan has been paid, driving Hangzhou to spend 949 million yuan.

  Wang Jianming, dean of the School of Business Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, believes that guiding the consumption direction, adjusting the consumption structure, and promoting the consumption upgrade, the "leverage effect" of consumer vouchers has achieved the greatest economic benefits in the most effective way.

  Sun Hao, a teacher at the School of Economics of Zhejiang Gongshang University, also believes that the "multiplier effect" of the expansion of consumer vouchers will help to activate and release the consumer demand suppressed by the epidemic, boost consumption and promote the economy.

  Since March, in addition to Hangzhou, governments in Guangxi, Nanjing, Hefei and other places have issued consumer vouchers through platforms such as Alipay. Jiaxing announced the issuance of 200 million yuan of consumer vouchers; Shaoxing will carry out nine consumption promotion actions and distribute 180 million yuan coupons to the public; Ningbo, county (city) governments and enterprises will jointly launch 100 million yuan of cultural and tourism vouchers for benefiting the people. The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism said that through the linkage of provinces, cities and counties, a total of 1 billion yuan worth of travel coupons and 100 million yuan worth of travel coupons will be launched.

  "Promotion fees and expanding domestic demand are a lasting battle." Many experts have reminded that as a short-term emergency policy and means, consumer vouchers have a certain effect on stimulating the economy, especially consumption, but they will not play a long-term role. To really stimulate domestic demand, only by enhancing residents’ consumption confidence and ability, increasing residents’ income and reducing the national burden, "comprehensive measures and stabilizing consumption expectations can people really consume, be willing to consume and dare to consume." (China Youth Daily, Hangzhou, April 2 nd, Zhongqing Daily, Zhongqing Net reporter Dong Bishui)

Children should be alert to the high incidence of mycoplasma infection in the school season.

  Recently, mycoplasma infection and mycoplasma pneumonia have become high-frequency words in mom circle. Three years after the epidemic in COVID-19, before the arrival of mycoplasma infection, children have experienced several rounds of infectious diseases, which are influenza, syncytial virus infection, infectious diarrhea, herpetic angina and so on. From the beginning of school in March this year to the present, "one disease per month" children account for a considerable proportion.

  The epidemic time of mycoplasma was advanced, and it spread widely.

  During the epidemic in COVID-19, because everyone wears masks, washes hands frequently, keeps social distance, increases ventilation and disinfects more surfaces, children’s contact with other pathogens is reduced, and the incidence of virus and bacterial infections is reduced. However, everything has two sides. The decrease of infection makes the immune stimulation of pathogens insufficient, the susceptible population increases and the group immunity decreases. After reducing the intensity and scale of group protection in many countries, the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus and other pathogens increased significantly. In this context, experts put forward the concept of immune debt during COVID-19 (the above content was quoted from the No.1 issue of journal of applied clinical pediatrics Journal of China, Volume 38, January 2023, "Immune debt and its influence during the epidemic of children in novel coronavirus").

  To put it simply, COVID-19’s three-year-old children may get one disease at a time. The flu hit first, and now it’s mycoplasma’s turn.

  Mycoplasma is a prokaryotic microorganism similar to bacteria but without cell wall, which is between bacteria and viruses, smaller than bacteria and larger than viruses, and is the main pathogenic microorganism of respiratory tract infection. Most common mycoplasma epidemics occur in November and December every year, and this year is advanced to August and September, which affects a wider range of people. The children’s condition is biased and the course of disease is long.

  Mycoplasma pneumonia has typical characteristics, and children should be vigilant in the following situations.

  1. Severe irritating dry cough: Severe cough is a prominent symptom of this disease. At the beginning, it is a dry cough, and the cough is stubborn and severe. The child can’t stop coughing and even affect the activities during the day and sleep at night. Late sputum, cough is still severe.

  2. Fever: high fever is common. If not treated, the fever will persist. There are also people with low body temperature or even no fever, which are relatively few.

  3. Auscultation often does not hear rales: general doctors with lung infections can hear wet rales, but most of mycoplasma pneumonia can’t hear rales. The auscultation of the lung is very inconsistent with the clinical manifestations such as severe cough and high fever, which has become one of the characteristics of this disease. Therefore, the diagnosis of mycoplasma pneumonia often needs chest radiography to assist the diagnosis.

  4. Chest X-ray: Typical mycoplasma pneumonia often shows large shadows in the lungs.

  5. Routine blood test: Routine blood test of mycoplasma has no characteristics, unlike typical bacterial infection, where the total number of white blood cells, neutrophils and CRP are all increased, and unlike virus infection, which is basically normal, white blood cells are often normal or high, or one of them is high.

  6. Mycoplasma pneumoniae antibody test: Mycoplasma antibody test positive can help diagnosis, but negative can not be excluded. And mycoplasma antibodies are often not detected at the early stage of the disease, which is not helpful for early diagnosis.

  These are the characteristics of typical mycoplasma pneumonia, but actually not all mycoplasma pneumonia show these characteristics. Clinically, some children only have a high fever and their cough is not obvious. In the clinic, I once met a child who had a fever for 5 days, accompanied by a mild cough for 2 days, and a film was also pneumonia. Some children have no obvious fever, only moderate to low fever, and even have no fever but cough is very severe, and filming is also pneumonia.

  About mycoplasma infection, these problems should be clear.

  Will children get pneumonia if they are infected with mycoplasma? Mycoplasma pneumonia is very difficult, okay? Will there be sequelae? Parents have too many questions to answer.

  First of all, it should be noted that infection with mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) does not necessarily lead to pneumonia. Mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) can not only cause pneumonia, but also cause upper respiratory tract infection (common cold symptoms) and tracheitis.

  Which children are susceptible to mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) infection? Mycoplasma pneumoniae mainly infects children aged 5-9, that is, school-age children. Recently, this wave of mycoplasma infection has spread to a wider age group, and infants also have severe mycoplasma pneumonia.

  How to treat mycoplasma pneumonia? Once mycoplasma pneumonia is diagnosed, macrolide drugs such as erythromycin and azithromycin are given for treatment. Mycoplasma infection is not sensitive to penicillins and cephalosporins.

  Why do children still progress to pneumonia after taking azithromycin? Is it delayed? Azithromycin is a specific drug for treating mycoplasma infection. Some children took azithromycin orally in the early stage of fever, but their condition was still getting worse and more serious pneumonia appeared. Parents often don’t quite understand why they developed pneumonia after taking azithromycin at the early stage of taking their children to see a doctor. The reason for this is complicated, which may be related to the variation or drug resistance of mycoplasma. It may also be related to the child’s poor rest after illness, or to the child’s physique.

  Mycoplasma pneumonia is very difficult, okay? Will there be sequelae? Mycoplasma pneumonia has a good prognosis after regular treatment. However, there are also serious mycoplasma pneumonia, and the effect of antibiotic treatment is not ideal, so special drugs such as hormones are needed, and some need bronchoscopy to assist diagnosis and treatment.

  If mycoplasma pneumonia is diagnosed, the child should be treated completely according to the doctor’s requirements, and hospitalization is needed if necessary. Have a good rest during and after the treatment, and don’t take classes with illness. After the treatment, you need a rest period.

  How to prevent mycoplasma pneumonia? When the child is at school, the class should actively open the window for ventilation; Children should carry out appropriate physical activities to increase immunity; Don’t arrange extracurricular classes and physical classes too full, but step by step, so that children can have an adaptation process; Drink plenty of water, don’t eat too much, and ensure daily defecation. Daily ventilation should be ensured in the family. If children have mycoplasma infection, isolation should be implemented as much as possible to reduce cross-infection in the family.

BYD, which is rushing away from friends, has offered e7 with less than 100,000 yuan.

Starting from 2023, after the New Year, BYD will usher in a wave of collective new product release, and the price will be reduced. The former champion version and glory version have led the trend of the automobile industry throughout the year. This feeling of rushing away from friends is really tense, but we can also see BYD’s attitude as a new energy guide in China.

Recently, BYD launched a new car named e7, with an official guide price of 103,800-115,800 yuan and a limited time price of 98,800-110,800 yuan. BYD has Dynasty series models and ocean series models, but in fact, E series models are rarely concerned, because most of these cars are oriented to the field of online car rental, but it is these cars that are more outstanding in many aspects, and even can be called the king of cost performance.

The first is the space performance. The starting price is less than 100,000 yuan, but the length, width and height are 4,780/1,900/1,515 mm, and the wheelbase is 2820mm, so it is positioned as a medium-sized car. Compared with BYD and New Energy, it has more space, and it makes up for the product gap between Hehan series models. In addition, the endurance performance must be solid and reliable, and its CLTC pure electric cruising range is 450 km and 520 km, and the whole system comes standard with heat pump air conditioning. The top model also has driver’s seat heating and ventilation, and the central control adopts a 15.6-inch display to support OTA upgrade, navigation and voice control.

BYD e7 is not specially designed for the network car market, but this kind of cost-effective model is more suitable as a network car, and it is also more suitable for ordinary family users to choose. After all, it can bring more comfort to family members in terms of space performance. Even the online car rental market is actually a huge potential market. There are countless models competing in this market, but at the practical level, facing the mileage of hundreds of kilometers every day, everything about the products will be exposed, so the products in this market are more competitive, while BYD has been rushing to friends in various fields.

Accurate market positioning and rich product lines are also the key to BYD’s success. BYD has launched a variety of models for different market segments, from high-end luxury brand-looking, to cost-effective E-series, to mainstream dynasty and ocean series, covering all price ranges and consumer groups. Take e7 as an example, it is precisely positioned in the online car and sinking home market. By providing products that meet the needs of these two markets, it quickly opened up the market situation. In other market segments, BYD also launched models that meet the needs of consumers through in-depth market research and analysis, thus occupying a large share in the overall market.

AM mirror summary:

The listing of BYD e7 once again shows BYD’s strong market competitiveness and innovative ability. With its cost-effective product advantages, it is expected to achieve excellent results in these two market segments by accurately cutting into the network car and sinking the home market. BYD can continue to lead the development of the industry, thanks to its strong technology research and development strength, perfect industrial chain layout, accurate market positioning and good brand reputation. In China’s new energy industry, BYD has brought profound changes from market structure, technological innovation to industrial chain construction, and has become an important force to promote the development of China’s new energy automobile industry. It is believed that in the future, BYD will continue to maintain the spirit of innovation and enterprising, bring more high-quality new energy automobile products to consumers, and make greater contributions to the development of China’s new energy automobile industry.

About these! It’s all rumors!

  On March 26,

  The top ten scientific rumors list in 2022 was released.

  Among them, vegetarians will not get fatty liver,

  Ten widely circulated rumors, such as O-type blood attracts mosquitoes,

  Selected as one of the top ten scientific rumors of the year.

  In the newly released top ten scientific rumors list in 2022,

  Are there any rumors that you have been "cheated"?

  Let’s take a look

  Myth 1-Vegetarian won’t get fatty liver.

  People who are vegetarian for a long time, malnourished and excessively lose weight may also get fatty liver. The metabolism of fat needs apolipoprotein as a "vehicle". When protein’s intake is insufficient, there is not enough apolipoprotein in the body, and the liver cannot transport excess fat, which accumulates in the liver and leads to fatty liver.

  Proverbs 2-It’s "faster" to get an injection after a child gets sick than to take medicine.

  Most oral drugs will be eliminated by the first pass of the liver, and the effect will be relatively gentle, and the risk of drug resistance and adverse reactions will be reduced. However, injected drugs directly enter the human body, and the risk of adverse reactions increases. Usually, when it is not suitable for oral administration, injection will be chosen for administration.

  Myth 3-After eating oranges, you will be positive for antigen or nucleic acid test.

  Eating oranges is difficult to affect the test results. If the antigen is detected correctly, the sampling site is the nasal mucosa, and there will be no contact with food. Covid-19’s nucleic acid detection determines the result by amplifying Covid-19’s nucleic acid, which needs to be eluted and purified, and impurities have little influence on the detection result.

  Proverbs 4-Potatoes germinate, and you can eat them by cutting them off.

  Solanum nigrum is toxic. After potatoes germinate, its solanum nigrum content will be greatly increased. Ingesting 200mg solanum nigrum at a time, which is equivalent to about 30g of potatoes that have turned green or germinated, can make people toxic and even fatal. Potatoes with severe germination or unable to judge the degree of germination should never be eaten.

  Myth 5 ——O-type blood attracts mosquitoes more

  Mosquitoes identify the odor emitted by human body through tentacles, and choose the biting object through odor. The smell of people is mainly determined by genes, and this difference has nothing to do with blood type. People who recruit mosquitoes can generally adopt physical protection and chemical mosquito repellent methods.

  Myth 6-Honey and garlic can treat Helicobacter pylori infection.

  Internet-transmitted "sterilization artifacts" such as honey and garlic cannot treat Helicobacter pylori infection. Although bacteria will die because of water loss in honey, honey will be diluted when it enters the stomach, which can not achieve sterilization effect. Although allicin contained in garlic can inhibit the growth of bacteria, it will decompose after entering the human body, and it is difficult to play a bactericidal and bacteriostatic role.

  Proverbs 7-After COVID-19 is infected, it is better to use drugs comprehensively.

  This practice may be life-threatening. Each drug has strict usage and dosage, and taking multiple drugs without authorization can easily lead to repeated medication and overdose, which is harmful to human health. Patients who are treated at home are advised to use drugs according to the guidelines of the Health and Health Commission for home treatment, and do not use drugs in combination.

  Myth 8-Myopia can be cured by surgery.

  Myopia is irreversible. The cause of myopia is that the axial length of the eye becomes longer. At present, any means, including surgery and wearing glasses, can only correct vision, but can’t shorten the axial length and restore it to its original state, and can’t prevent complications caused by high myopia. Therefore, myopia prevention is more important.

  Proverb 9-You can lose weight by eating only fruit.

  Eating only fruit is difficult to lose weight and unhealthy. Protein, fat, carbohydrates, vitamins, minerals and other nutrients are needed to maintain health. Eating only fruit for a long time will lead to malnutrition, and some fruits have high sugar content, and excessive consumption will even increase weight.

  Rumor 10-It is dangerous to have a substation near your home, so you need to move.

  The AC frequency of China Substation is 50Hz, which is extremely low in the field of electromagnetic radiation, and the radiation range is very small, so residents need not worry. At the same time, the substation has a certain coverage area, that is, the power supply radius. If it exceeds the power supply radius, it can’t guarantee effective power supply, so the urban substation can’t stay away from residential areas at will.

[Editor in charge:

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