In September, the CPI rose back to the "1 ST era". How did the price go in the fourth quarter?
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 15 th: The CPI increase in September returned to the "1 ST era". How to go in the fourth quarter?
Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Weiwei and Chen Aiping
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, in September, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year, down by 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, and fell below 2% for the first time this year. How to treat the decline of CPI increase? Can prices continue to be stable in the fourth quarter? The reporter conducted an interview around hot issues.
Food prices drive CPI growth down.
Food price, especially pork price, is an important factor affecting the increase of CPI. The data shows that in September, food prices rose by 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 1.69 percentage points. Among them, pork prices rose by 25.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 27.1 percentage points from last month.
"The significant narrowing of the increase in food prices is the main reason for the decline in CPI." Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, analyzed that the year-on-year increase in pork prices dropped sharply in September due to the increase in the base last year, which was the main reason for the narrowing of the increase in food prices.
"Although pork is still relatively expensive, I feel that the price is indeed lower than before. Recently, the prices of vegetables and fruits seem to be a little expensive." In a convenience food store in Fengtai District, Beijing, Ms. Liu told reporters that the prices of meat, fruits and vegetables have risen and fallen, and the overall expenditure has not changed much.
The data confirmed her feelings. In September, the price of fresh fruit increased by 7.3% compared with August, but decreased by 6.9% compared with the same period of last year. The price of fresh vegetables increased by 2.4% compared with that in August, but the increase also declined.
Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the price of fresh fruit increased month-on-month, mainly due to factors such as seasons and festivals. The price increase of fresh vegetables was mainly affected by seasonal factors and rainfall in some areas.
According to experts’ analysis, as autumn vegetables are listed one after another, the market supply is expected to recover in a short time, and the price of fresh vegetables will fall.
Pork prices have recently started to fall. Compared with August, pork prices have dropped by 1.6%.
Guo Liyan, director of the Market and Price Research Institute of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, analyzed that with the effect of measures such as actively promoting the expansion of pig production capacity and putting in reserves in the early stage, pork prices have continued to decline in the near future.
Up to now, the number of live pigs and fertile sows in China has returned to the level of more than 80% in normal years, and the proportion of large-scale pig breeding has increased to 53%. The relevant person in charge of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the relationship between pork supply and demand will be further eased in the fourth quarter.
Non-food prices are relatively stable.
From a year-on-year perspective, non-food prices were the same as the same period last year. Among them, the price of medical care increased by 1.5% year-on-year, the price of education, culture and entertainment increased by 0.7%, and the price of transportation and communication decreased by 3.6%.
"In September, my friends and I took a short trip around Shanghai and found that the hotel price was a little more expensive than before. Near the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival, it is also the peak season for consumption, not only in Shanghai, but also in the Yangtze River Delta, where the prices of high-quality hotels are higher than in the off-season, and the reservations are still very tight. " Shanghai citizen Zheng Bing told reporters.
Recently, with the improvement of epidemic prevention and control situation in China, the resumption of work, production, business and market has been accelerated, the life service industry has gradually picked up, and the prices of some services have risen in the short term.
Dong Lijuan introduced that with the gradual recovery of entertainment consumption, the number of people watching movies increased, and the price of movie tickets increased by 4.1% compared with August; At the beginning of the new semester, the fees of extracurricular education and some private schools have increased, and the price of educational services has increased by 1.6% compared with August; Summer and autumn change seasons, and clothing prices are 0.9% higher than in August.
In Guo Liyan’s view, the prices of education, culture, entertainment and family services were affected by factors such as the school season and the accelerated recovery of consumption, which showed a slight increase from the previous month and the same period last year, thus supporting the core CPI to continue to rise from the previous month. Under the prevention and control of normalized epidemic situation, production and life have been steadily advanced, and the stability of CPI operation center has been enhanced.
The CPI increase in the fourth quarter may continue to fall.
Overall, prices remained stable in September. Dong Lijuan believes that in September, all localities actively implemented the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" policies and normalized epidemic prevention and control measures, and the market supply and demand situation was generally stable.
Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase of CPI has been high and then low. After reaching a high of 5.4% in January, it fell back to the 2% platform in the second quarter and further fell below 2% in September. From January to September this year, the national consumer price rose by 3.3% compared with the same period last year.
Liu Xuezhi analyzed that with the recovery of tourism, accommodation and other industries, the future non-food prices are expected to gradually stabilize slightly. However, the recovery of consumption is relatively slow, and non-food prices may still be at a low level. In addition, the production of live pigs continues to recover, the stock is increasing, and the price of pork will decrease steadily. The second half of last year was a period of rising pork prices, and the year-on-year increase in pork prices in the fourth quarter of this year will be significantly narrowed.
"Looking forward to the fourth quarter, affected by the sharp decline in CPI hikes, and considering the gradual easing of the structural increase in food prices, it is expected that the average increase in CPI in the fourth quarter will further decline on the basis of the third quarter." Guo Liyan said that judging from this, it has a solid foundation to achieve the price control target of about 3.5% for the whole year.










