The price of cherries has dropped, but the price of most fruits may increase slightly before the Spring Festival.

Recently, the price of cherries has been falling continuously. According to the statistics of Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market, the average wholesale price of cherries was 330 yuan/kg on October 31, 2023, and decreased to 120 yuan/kg on December 31, and further decreased to 73 yuan/kg on January 20, 2024.

"The price of cherries plunged rapidly in the short term, mainly due to the rapid increase in supply." Zhao Junye, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the reporter.

The sales season of imported Chilean cherries in China is from December to February of the following year. Before that, in October and November, the import of cherries sold in the market was small and mainly by air, with high transportation cost and high price. In December, a large number of cherries arrived in Hong Kong by sea, and the supply increased rapidly. Because the cost of sea transportation was significantly lower than that of air transportation, the sales price dropped rapidly.

Taking the 2022/2023 season as an example, January 2023 was the month with the largest import of Chilean cherries, with an import volume of 240,000 tons, accounting for 66% of the total import volume in the season. In December 2022 and February 2023, Chilean cherries imported 54,000 tons and 58,000 tons respectively, accounting for 14.8% and 15.9% of the total imports in the production season, and the total imports in other months accounted for only 3.4%.

According to the previous forecast of the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association, the peak shipment of Chilean cherries this season appeared from December 18 to 24, 2023. It is expected that the arrival will be the most concentrated in January 2024, and the peak shipping period will last until early February, and it will begin to decrease after the Spring Festival. The intensive arrival of imported cherries in Hong Kong led to a rapid and sharp drop in prices. In the later period, with the increasing supply of Chilean cherries, there is still room for price decline.

The decline in the price of cherries is also related to the listing of domestic big cherries to seize the high-end fruit market before the Spring Festival. Domestic greenhouse cherries from Yantai, Shandong Province and Dalian, Liaoning Province have recently been listed in small quantities, with excellent quality and high freshness, which provides more choices for consumers to buy fresh cherries.

Despite the sharp drop in the price of cherries, the prices of other high-end fruits are generally stable, such as durian. Because of the low temperature in the early stage, the price of strawberries rose significantly at the end of December and the beginning of January. Recently, with the increase in market volume, the price has dropped.

Recently, many merchants in Beijing Xinfadi Agricultural Products Wholesale Market reported that the amount of high-end fruits was less than in previous years. "It takes a long time from New Year’s Day to Spring Festival this year, which lengthens the consumption period and the stocking period and slows down the sales rhythm. In addition, the strong sales of fruits on the e-commerce platform also pushed down the price. " Zhao Junyi said.

Regarding the trend of fruit prices before the Spring Festival, Zhao Junye said that most fruit prices are expected to show a slight upward trend due to the demand for stocking during the Spring Festival. With the improvement of domestic economy and the acceleration of tourism recovery, there is still room for growth in the consumption of high-end and branded gifts and fruits before the holiday.

It is expected that the price of most fruits will increase slightly before the Spring Festival. In the later period, the fruit market will be dominated by large varieties such as apples, oranges, pears and bananas, supplemented by special fruits such as strawberries, big cherries and durians and high-priced fruits, with sufficient total quantity and diverse varieties.

In terms of varieties, the supply of watermelons and grapes continued to decrease, pushing up prices. The inventory and price of apples are at historical highs. Before the Spring Festival, driven by the demand for stocking by merchants, the price is expected to increase steadily and slightly. Pear varieties are rich, and the selective diversification is beneficial to the sustained growth of consumption. It is expected that the price will continue to rise slightly before the Spring Festival. However, due to the significant increase in supply of some fruits, the upward momentum is insufficient.