South Korea angered Japan’s trade sanctions and Japanese companies accelerated their evacuation.

　　According to Reuters’s report on July 9th, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Hiroshi Shigeng, said that Japan had "not considered at all" lifting the restrictions on high-tech exports to South Korea, and the export restrictions did not violate the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). "Japanese sanctions have ignited the anger of the Korean people." Reuters said that tens of thousands of South Koreans launched a petition online, calling for boycotting Japanese products and traveling to Japan, and even demanding boycotting the Olympic Games to be held in Tokyo next year.

　　The game between the two sides is uncompromising.

　　Japan’s Kyodo News reported that the Japanese government strengthened the export control of three materials, namely hydrogen fluoride, fluorinated polyimide and photosensitive photoresist, to South Korea on the 4th. At the same time, the Japanese government plans to remove South Korea from the "white list country" in August.

　　According to a report by the Korea Finance Committee, since the fourth quarter of 2018, Japanese capital has accelerated its withdrawal from South Korea, and the total amount of Japanese banks’ loans in South Korea has decreased by 2.78 trillion won, which is far faster than the industry average. Recently, the constant disputes between South Korea and Japan have caused bottlenecks for Japanese companies in Korea. The Sony Korea Media Open Day, originally scheduled for the 8th, was finally cancelled due to "force majeure". Because of the accelerated withdrawal of Japanese capital, other overseas capitals took the opportunity to seize the beach. From July 1 to 11, foreign capitals except Japan purchased 430 billion won of Samsung Electronics shares and 210 billion yuan of SK Hynix shares.

　　In the face of a series of restrictions imposed by Japan, South Korean President Moon Jae in made his first response when he presided over the meeting of chief secretaries and assistant officials in Cheongwadae on the 8th, pointing out that Japan’s supply restriction measures cast a shadow over the production of Korean enterprises and urged Japan to cancel the trade restriction measures. On the 10th, Moon Jae in discussed Japanese export control measures with the presidents of 30 large Korean enterprise groups in Cheongwadae, and worked hard to formulate countermeasures.

　　Recently, the Korean stock market has fallen sharply due to Japan’s move. According to "Korea Economy" report, South Korea’s composite stock index fell 2.2% on the 8th, which is also the lowest value since May 31st. Semiconductor stocks, which were significantly affected by Japanese export control, fell sharply, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix falling by about 2%, and related small and medium-sized semiconductor enterprises falling by more than 10%. In addition, due to the fear of shrinking tourism to Japan, the share prices of major Korean aviation companies and tourism-related companies fell by about 5%.

　　The Korean people’s dissatisfaction with Japan has triggered calls for boycotting Japanese goods. "Japan boycott" is one of the most searched terms on Naver, the main online search engine in South Korea. As of the 5th, nearly 25,000 people signed a petition on the website of the South Korean Presidential Palace, calling for a boycott of Japanese goods. The government must respond to a petition that gets 0.2 million/200 thousand signatures in a month. "Korea Economy" said on the 8th that "boycotting Japanese goods is spreading in all directions in Korea".

　　There are reasons for the escalation of disputes.

　　Trade disputes between Korea and Japan continue to ferment. According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean government condemned the Japanese government’s trade retaliatory measures to restrict exports to South Korea at the meeting of the WTO Council for Trade in Goods on the 9th.

　　Bai Zhie, Ambassador of the Permanent Representative of South Korea in Geneva, said at the meeting that Japan’s export control to South Korea was an economic retaliatory measure for political purposes. Japan denies violating WTO rules. Ichihara Junichi, Ambassador of the Permanent Representative of Japan in Geneva, said that the move was not to control exports, but for national security reasons. Next, the South Korean government will once again put forward its views on relevant issues at the meeting of the WTO General Council on 23-24.

　　Why is the confrontation between Japan and South Korea so fierce?

　　Reuters believes that one of the direct factors of Japan’s export control to South Korea is dissatisfaction with the Korean court’s decision that Japanese companies imposed labor compensation during World War II. "Tracing back to the source, the root of the Japan-South Korea issue lies in the unresolved historical issues."

　　In an interview with this newspaper, Lu Yaodong, director of the Diplomatic Research Office of the Japanese Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that on August 22, 1910, the entire Korean peninsula became a Japanese colony. During the colonial period, Japan recruited laborers in Han Guoqiang, forcing Korean women to become "comfort women" in World War II, which triggered the hatred of Korean people against Japan. When park geun-hye came to power in 2015, he signed the Korea-Japan Comfort Women Agreement with Japan. The Japanese government consortium provided funds to support the victims of Japanese "comfort women" and carried out the work of restoring their reputation and dignity and psychological counseling. However, what the Korean people really want is the deep introspection of the Japanese government. After Moon Jae in became president, the South Korean government dissolved the "comfort women" foundation established under this agreement in 2018. Japan is seriously dissatisfied with this.

　　"Japan will hold Senate elections this year, which can be said to be crucial for Abe’s constitutional amendment. If Abe’s party can get more than two-thirds of the seats, he will have the possibility of amending the constitution. " Liu Jiangyong, a professor at the Tsinghua University Institute of International Relations, explained to this newspaper another reason why Japan-ROK relations were cold. He said, "What’s more, the South Korean government advocates that the confrontation between North and South Moon Jae in should be eliminated and a peace mechanism should be established on the Korean Peninsula. This is contrary to the wishes of the Abe government, so the Abe government put pressure on South Korea to adopt a tough policy toward North Korea. Such different demands have made the opposition between the two sides increasingly obvious. "

　　Economic chaos is no good.

　　As two countries with strong economic strength in Northeast Asia and even in the world, Japan and South Korea are in direct conflict in the economic and trade field, which is bound to bring negative effects to Northeast Asia and even the world. According to Yonhap News Agency’s report on July 8th, Moon Jae in pointed out that it is absolutely undesirable for South Korea and Japan to fall into a vicious circle of tit for tat. He warned that Japan’s emotional economic retaliation against judicial affairs risked turning into a zero-sum game between Korea and Japan.

　　Liu Jiangyong said: "In 2019, South Korea lowered its economic growth expectations because of sluggish exports and investment. In June this year, South Korea’s export volume was about US$ 44.18 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, which has been declining for seven consecutive months. This time, Japan’s restrictions on South Korea will have a serious impact on South Korea’s related semiconductor manufacturing industry. The Japanese government wants to restrict the export of Japanese-made fluorinated polyimides and photoresists to South Korea, and the global market share is as high as 90%. South Korea has always relied on Japanese components, materials and technology to develop its own semiconductor and display industries. It is not possible to get rid of dependence overnight. Of course, this will also have an impact on Japanese supplier companies. According to statistics, in 2018, Japanese companies imported related products from South Korea to reach 2.289 billion US dollars. Once South Korea’s production is delayed due to raw material control, Japanese companies will also face the risk of supply interruption. This is negative for the economic development of both sides. "

　　The Nikkei Asian Review said that this is a bad omen for East Asia at a time when the world is facing increasing risks.

　　Liu Jiangyong said: "The escalation of the dispute between South Korea and Japan will damage the cooperation and opening up environment in East Asia. The relationship between South Korea and Japan is not harmonious, and the promotion of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement in Northeast Asia is in trouble. Japan’s unilateral sanctions similar to those of the United States have undoubtedly undermined the rules of bilateral and multilateral economic and trade exchanges among East Asian countries. This is also detrimental to Japan’s international image. "

　　Nowadays, the tide of globalization is unstoppable. If South Korea and Japan cannot reconcile, there will be no winner in the end. Liu Jiangyong analyzed: "In the short term, neither Korea nor Japan will make concessions easily, and the dispute between the two sides is difficult to cool down. But there is a high probability that the relationship will not enter a deadlock. In 2020, Japan is about to usher in the Tokyo Olympic Games. Japan hopes that the Olympic Games will be held in a peaceful atmosphere, so it is more possible for South Korea and Japan to conduct dialogue and consultation. "

　　How the contradictions and disputes between Japan and South Korea will end is of concern. Lu Yaodong said, "The Korean government is trying its best to solve the current dilemma. One is to appeal to the World Trade Organization, and the other is to increase relevant investment to achieve product substitution. However, to fundamentally solve the long-standing disputes between Japan and South Korea, we must face historical problems, and historical contradictions are extremely difficult to resolve. The Korean people believe that Japan has still not fully acknowledged the crimes committed during its colonial rule on the Korean Peninsula, demanding that Japan face up to history, reflect deeply, apologize sincerely and openly, and meet the compensation requirements. " (Sun Shaofeng Shangwei)