On the Security Dilemma in Northeast Asia from Three Key Variables

　　The security of Northeast Asia is in a complicated state of high stalemate and sudden change, and in the turbulent vortex of global geopolitics. The author intends to extract several key variables, namely capital, power and the relationship between major powers, from many issues and elements related to the security dilemma in Northeast Asia, and investigate and analyze them.

　　Capital is constantly alienated

　　Marx repeatedly mentioned the alienation of capital to labor and capital in Economic and Philosophical Manuscripts in 1844, which provided us with a scientific and effective window to understand the essential characteristics of the capital world.

　　After World War II, the world economic crisis similar to that in 1929 was not repeated, and the cyclical and staged crises of capital development were no longer so obvious. Even though the global financial tsunami occurred in 2008, it did not lead to the global economic depression. The main reasons are the self-repair mechanism of the capital world and the high-intensity human intervention after the system failed.

　　However, after 2008, although human intervention effectively delayed the outbreak of the crisis on a global scale, the crisis has not been cured, but on the contrary, it is accumulating risks for the next crisis, so human society has entered a huge uncertain era.

　　The reason why the current world is chaotic and full of conflicts and opposites is because the underlying logic of the world economy, namely capital logic, has undergone profound changes, namely capital alienation. Due to the constant alienation of capital, capital is alienated from the creator of wealth to the destroyer of wealth, from advocating interdependence to a hobby of conflict and war, from dependence on people’s needs to a crazy preference for military supplies, from hope and enthusiastic cheers for tomorrow to fear, despair and hostility for tomorrow.

　　The disorder of the logic at the bottom of the world economy is constantly producing spillover effects, from economic crisis to social crisis, political crisis and international relations crisis at the regional and global levels. Under the impact of this storm of the times, those areas with long-standing problems left over from history, high concentration of various relationships and contradictions and very sensitive areas are most likely to become hot spots, as well as explosive and flammable areas of conflicts and wars.

　　Northeast Asia, which has all the above characteristics, has therefore become the eye of the storm and the frontier of geopolitical conflicts in various times. How to solve the problem of various crises, including regional crises, caused by capital alienation is a major issue related to human development.

　　Power moves eastward again.

　　According to the British economist Angus Madison’s estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) of all countries in history, as early as 1000 AD, China and India accounted for two-thirds of the global economy, and the global economic center of gravity occupied a solid position in the East at that time. After more than 800 years, with the arrival of the British industrial revolution, the economic center of gravity began to shift to Europe, and then to North America, and the west became the center of the world. But Angus Madison believes that the global economic center of gravity is rapidly shifting to the east and south, and by 2025, the global economic center of gravity will return to the Far East as it did in 1000 AD.

　　In the 1980s, human society kicked off the shift of the center of world power to the East, and Asian countries and regions rose one after another: Japan, the "four little dragons" and "four little tigers" in Asia, China, Viet Nam and India … … In particular, the rapid rise of China has promoted the development of the Asian region to an unprecedented height, and Asia has begun to enter a new era of overall rise.

　　However, the eastward shift of world power is not smooth sailing, but accompanied by huge obstacles, resistance and risks. We can see that the process of world power moving eastward is still stubbornly evolving, which has not been interrupted by the epidemic and the comprehensive suppression of China by the United States. However, American and Western forces do not want to see the power moving eastward at an accelerated pace, thus ending the era when the West dominated the world. To this end, they began to join hands and start a global layout. Whether it is putting forward the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", NATO’s eastward expansion, the rise of various military alliances, or the prediction of the new cold war, etc., it is the product of western international politics under the background of the eastward shift of power, which is intended to comprehensively contain, block, delay or even terminate this historical process and move against the trend of the times.

　　Northeast Asia, as the strategic support for the rise of the great powers in the East, has become the forefront of the East-West confrontation in the process of power moving eastward. The Korean Peninsula issue, the Taiwan Strait issue and the South China Sea issue have emerged one after another, all of which have become the fuse of confrontation and conflict between the East and the West, even the powder keg.

　　At present, people are most worried about whether the Korean Peninsula or the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea will become the next new battlefield after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and whether the new Cold War Iron Curtain with the theme of so-called autocracy and democracy defined by the West will really come.

　　Northeast Asia is under great pressure brought by the eastward shift of power, and the security situation is very grim. How to resolve the opposition and conflict between civilizations is a major issue of the times related to the future direction of human civilization.

　　Adjustment of relations between major powers

　　Northeast Asia is the intersection of the interests and contradictions of the United States, China, Russia and Japan. Under the great changes in the past century, the balance of power in the relations between world powers is undergoing major changes. The changes of power relations among big powers, the conflicts of interests among big powers and the strategic adjustment of their relations have become important variables for the security of Northeast Asia.

　　In particular, Sino-US relations, as the most important relationship in today’s world power structure, are profoundly affecting the trend of global geopolitics and promoting the transformation of the world pattern. The trend of Sino-US relations plays an important role in the security of Northeast Asia.

　　At present, Sino-US relations are in the process of deep strategic adjustment, and the security situation in Northeast Asia will also be turbulent due to this, and the future trend will be confusing. It is not ruled out that there will be a tense situation in stages. However, with the gradual adjustment of Sino-US relations or staged easing, the security situation in Northeast Asia will also change accordingly.

　　Therefore, the security of Northeast Asia depends to a great extent on the adjustment of relations between major powers, especially Sino-US relations. How to resolve the crisis of relations between major powers is a major issue of the times related to human security.

　　So, how can we resolve these contradictions?

　　The supreme leader of president, China, put forward three major initiatives to the world one after another, which are highly targeted to overcome the factors that aggravate the security dilemma in Northeast Asia. For example, global development initiatives can resolve the fission of the times caused by capital alienation; The global civilization initiative can resolve the mutual agitation between eastern and western civilizations brought about by the eastward shift of power; The global security initiative can resolve the geopolitical opposition and conflict brought about by the big country game.

　　(Wu Xinbo is the director and professor of the East Asian Studies Center of Shanghai International Studies University)