Fashion beauty columnist

Yvonne yifang

The secret of my skin care lies in the combination of various massages in daily maintenance, especially the traditional manual massage and the use of roller equipment to promote skin circulation and absorption. Compared with random application of skin care products, it can effectively prevent and fade fine lines, tighten, promote and reduce swelling, and truly feel the skin in a better state. It is also of great help to the overall mental outlook.

Left picture

High-necked long knitted dress Balenciaga

Right picture

Satin pleated tops and trousers are Celine Homme.

High-heeled sandals Celine

My skin care massage initiation, originally from the "Sweet Sixteen" birthday gift given by my elders in the 1980s-going to the beauty salon opened by GeorgetteKlinger in BeverlyHills (which was completely closed more than 10 years ago) for facial treatment-was the first exclusive high-end care for girls’ skin in the United States that year. However, a single brand of skin care products can’t satisfy my pleasure, so while observing and experiencing the operation of the maintainer, I consulted a whole set of European massage techniques and gradually learned to practice it at home. Many fingering and habits have been kept up to now, and they know what they want in skin care and to what extent they can achieve.

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Diamond shawl Giorgio Armani

Right picture

Vest dress saint Laurent by Anthony Vaccarello

In the 1990s, when I was in college and in graduate school, it was the golden age in downtown LA, and it was also the peak of my skin allergy when I was a student. Every week, I go to a pure Japanese beauty salon located in the Omni Hotel in downtown Little Tokyo with my foolproof skin care kit. Under the gentle shiatsu and roller massage of the aunts and grandmothers wearing kimonos, they fell asleep. When I wake up, my face is smaller, my skin is delicate and full, my skin color is clear, bright and pink, and my acne is far away from me. Get up and drink a small cup of plum tea, or sip a small cup of condensed milk red bean snow, while catching up with the comic book "Disordered Horse 1/2" in the elementary school to wake up, while peeking at the Japanese belle who is tied to the slimming instrument and jumping, it is amazing.

Diamond shawl Giorgio Armani

Plume de Paon Peacock Feather Rose Gold Diamond Earrings Boucheron?

I have several pocket lists close to home every day, which are usually beauty salons opened or cooperated by skin care brands I am familiar with, and the products have been safely integrated into my daily skin care. For example, KateSomerville on Melrose Place in Los Angeles started from a beauty salon, and now many department stores have counters. Hotel Bel Air’s affiliated spas all use LaPrairie；; Natura Bisse in BeverlyHills Hotel. As regular customers, the biggest advantage of these three companies is that beauticians are quiet all the time, and they have never heard the gossip among their neighbors, only the sound of small bridges running in their ears. However, these three families are criticized by new customers for their tight time. The 60-minute service usually takes only 50 minutes. If you want to add extra services temporarily, you will be told "please make an appointment next time". In fact, I think the remaining 10 minutes of stretching, getting up slowly, changing clothes and grooming are just right.

As a regular customer of Natura Bissé, of course, I don’t want to miss the brand-new project named Pure Air Bubble, which is the 20th anniversary of beauty salon. I enjoy 99.99% pure oxygen in the nursing cabin like a big white balloon in the sci-fi world, and the nursing effect for one hour is 8, 9 and 10 times that of the ordinary one, making my skin shiny, tender and firm, and my spirit even hundredfold.

During the trip, in addition to relaxing in a body SPA, getting off the plane to do a repair facial and body SPA can better solve the edema caused by jet lag and dehydration caused by cabin dryness. Farther away, there is Les Etangs de Corot Resort Hotel on the outskirts of Paris, which is run by the sisters of the boss’s wife Caudalie. Of course, daySPA is all-in-one Caudalie products, and the body massage combined with aromatherapy is particularly pleasant. After that, have breakfast and dinner in the garden restaurant, and take a walk by the lake before it gets dark. After the reopening of Ritz Hotel in Paris, the attached beauty salon was initially run by Chanel, using my favorite Sublimage series. At the end of last year, it was replaced by BiologiqueRecherche. In short, it was a brand that cooked pet phrase noodles.

From the very beginning, my readers probably know that there must be a Carita on my skin care core list. This old French skin care beauty salon is located in a courtyard on Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore Street in the center of Paris, which is the own property of the founders and sisters. In the past, when I went to Paris during Fashion Week, I would try my best to arrive at my destination a few days in advance and before the arrival of a large group of people. I would see my friends shopping and watch the exhibition first, and I would definitely arrange to visit Carita to make a facade.

Whether you go straight to Carita as soon as you get off the plane, or make a face-lifting appearance before you officially "work" after a few days of rest, you should leave a place for Carita. Carita has a set of Or Rejuvenating Treatment 24K facial care, which is known as "red carpet care". She feels 53 fingertip ballets and promotes the circulation of blood and lymphatic system. The most obvious benefit is that her skin is stretched and full, her face is three-dimensional and firm, and she is completely in an excellent state of daily rest. This time, I also got the latest Lagon cream.

Recently, I also tried to do back and foot care in Clarins spa in the newly opened Disneyland Hotel in Paris. The secondary thing is to eliminate fatigue, relax and align. The important thing is to push open the meridians, massage the calf without bulging muscles and beautify the lines. Clarins has the body essential oil of full collection. The beauty salon is also a full service salon. You can choose all kinds of spas, such as Lighter feet and Firming. It won’t make you want to fall asleep after some body massages, but it will make you feel refreshed and light-footed. After that, have a rest, drink a cup of fragrant iced water and eat a coconut ice cream with dark chocolate, which tastes like coconut elastic chocolate that I loved when I was a child in Shanghai … This is the most necessary list for the 18,000-step trip to Disney.

Produced by: Zhang Xiaodong

Producer: Yu Biying

Editor: Xu Hui

Invited interview: Yvonne Yi Fang

Photography: Zhao Hua

Visual Planning & Image: Fred Su

Model: LacocoModels

Makeup: Wang Xi

Hairstyle: stone

Modeling Assistant: Kaka

Editor’s Assistant: Wu Tingting

Acknowledgement of the venue: Beijing Club and Executive Apartment.

new media

Typesetting: Yuri, Xiao Yi

Design: Yueming

Full text10074Words, reading takes abouttwentyminute

Macro Team of Wencaixin Research Institute

Wu Chaoming and Hu Wenyan　

Core view　

How will the domestic interest rate, especially the yield of ten-year treasury bonds, be interpreted in the future? The market has little disagreement on the medium and long-term trend. Most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, and show an overall downward trend. However, the market has great differences and different judgments on the short-term trend in the next few quarters.

1. China’s interest rate analysis framework: fundamental factors such as economic growth and inflation dominate the direction of interest rate change, while other factors such as financial supervision policies and exchange rates affect the fluctuation range of interest rates.One isIn the medium and long term, the yield trend of domestic ten-year government bonds is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle, indicating that the trend of domestic interest rates is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.The second isAfter the international financial crisis in 2008, the goal of financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates. In the cycle of stable economic growth, especially economic recovery, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead to a significant increase in market interest rates.The third isInterest rates will also be affected by exchange rates, supply and demand of funds and other factors. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will restrict the domestic monetary easing space, and the demand for funds exceeding supply will also raise the level of interest rate centers.

Second, the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters: it is expected that the fluctuation will bottom out first, and then the probability of recovery will be too high.

First, from the perspective of interest rate analysis framework, the yield of 10-year government bonds may bottom out first and then rise.First,The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which determines that it is difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term, or to bottom out first, but after the economy is confirmed to stabilize and rise, interest rates will tend to rise;Secondly,Affected by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig grain price, high oil price, recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates;Third,The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on domestic interest rates.

Second, from a quantitative point of view, the current yield of ten-year government bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and it is only a matter of time before it gradually converges upward in the future.

Third, based on the historical experience in 2012 and 2019, the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term. However, if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economic confirmation stabilizes, the interest rate will enter the recovery channel.In July this year, the domestic economy recovered weakly, which led the central bank to cut interest rates unexpectedly in August. If the real estate recovery continues to fall short of expectations, the possibility of cutting interest rates again will not be ruled out. However, with the steady growth policy taking effect, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future is increasing, and the trend of interest rate bottoming out in the next few quarters is more clear.

Risk warning:Real estate recovery continued to fall short of expectations, and the overseas economy went down more than expected.

main body

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market interest rate has experienced two obvious downturns: First, in April-May, 2022, in the face of the severe impact on the economy brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the epidemic, the central bank greatly increased the liquidity supply to boost the demand for entity financing and support the economic recovery as soon as possible. The domestic short-term market interest rate DR007 dropped from about 2.1% in the first quarter to around 1.5%, which was about 60BP lower than the policy interest rate in the same period (see Figure 1). Second, from July to August, due to the unexpected economic recovery, especially the overall weakening of financial and economic data in July, and the prominent problem of insufficient effective social demand, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in mid-August, pushing the interest rate of DR007 down from about 1.9% at the end of June to the historical low of 1.3% during the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and the yield of 10-year government bonds also broke through the low point in the same period to further open up the downside (see Figure 1-2).

Looking forward to the future, the market has little difference on the medium and long-term trend, and most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, showing an overall downward trend, but the market has great differences and different judgments on the trend in the next few quarters. Therefore, based on the interest rate analysis framework and quantitative analysis, this paper studies the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters.

First, China’s interest rate analysis framework

(1) The interest rate level is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.

According to the People’s Bank Law, the ultimate goal of China’s monetary policy is to "maintain the stability of the currency and promote economic growth". As a big country economy, China’s monetary policy is dominated by me. Interest rate is one of the key tools to achieve the goal of monetary policy, so the formulation of domestic interest rate policy and the trend of interest rate level mainly depend on economic fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices in the medium and long term.

First, the trend of domestic interest rate is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle.Inventory cycle describes the periodic change of enterprise inventory for about 40 months, which can be used to help judge the strength of economic growth because of its strong correlation with nominal economic growth (see Figure 3). Since 2003, China has experienced a total of five complete inventory cycles, and is currently in the sixth cycle of the inventory cycle (see Figure 4). Generally speaking, the upward cycle of inventory often corresponds to the recovery stage of interest rate, that is, the bear market in the bond market, and vice versa. However, it is worth noting that the peak and trough of interest rate and inventory cycle are only similar at the time point, but not completely consistent. In most cases, interest rate is slightly ahead of the latter to peak or bottom. On the one hand, this stems from the fact that the growth rate of inventory lags behind the economic growth slightly (see Figure 3), and on the other hand, it is also related to the interest rate being affected by other factors such as investors’ expectations. In addition, there is no fixed proportional relationship between interest rate fluctuation range and inventory fluctuation range, and they only have the same trend, indicating that economic growth is not the only factor determining interest rate.

Second, there is a strong correlation between interest rate trend and inflation gap in history, but the correlation tends to weaken in recent years.In order to stabilize inflation and its expectation, China will put forward this year’s CPI growth target in the government work report every year. If the price deviates far from the above target value, monetary policy will take effective measures to promote the price to return to the target center. From the practical experience, before 2013, the yield of domestic ten-year government bonds and the inflation gap (CPI growth rate-government target growth rate) basically changed synchronously, and the correlation between them was very strong (see Figure 5). However, after 2013, due to the obvious reduction of domestic CPI fluctuation, the inflation gap basically fluctuated around 0, the monetary policy was weakened by price constraints, and the correlation between the inflation gap and the yield of 10-year government bonds was also obviously weakened. If we consider the relationship between the comprehensive inflation index weighted by CPI and PPI and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the correlation between the two has also weakened after 2013, and the peaks and valleys of the two are close at the time point but no longer completely consistent (see Figure 6). On the whole, when the inflationary pressure is high, the interest rate is more constrained by the price, which is more consistent with the price trend, and vice versa, which shows that inflation is one of the important factors in determining the interest rate.

(B) After the international financial crisis in 2008, financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates.

After the financial crisis in 2008, the major central banks in the world learned the lesson that monetary policy only focused on inflation targets and paid insufficient attention to financial stability, and began to focus on improving the financial regulatory framework and strengthening macro-prudential management, and their attention to financial stability targets increased significantly. In terms of macro-prudential management framework construction, the Bank of China is at the forefront of global central banks, and further accelerates the improvement of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy after the crisis. Among them, the former focuses on maintaining economic and price stability, while the latter focuses on maintaining financial stability. Under the background of resolving financial risks and maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio, financial regulatory policies have also become an important factor affecting the level of domestic interest rates. During the period of steady economic growth, especially during the economic recovery cycle, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead the market interest rate to rise. For example, in 2013-2014 and 2016-2018, two rounds of domestic interest rates went up, and the tightening of financial supervision was one of the main reasons.

First, the above two rounds of interest rate hikes are in the rising stage of inventory cycle and nominal GDP growth rate (see Figure 4), indicating that economic stabilization and recovery is an important prerequisite for interest rate hikes.However, if we look at the constant price GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate indicators, they have basically changed little during the period (see Figure 7), reflecting that there is no overheating risk in the economy, and fundamental factors are not enough to support a sharp rise in interest rates. The central bank’s working paper "Natural Interest Rate in China" has also reached a similar conclusion, that is, except for a slight decline around 2015, the domestic output gap in 2012-2019 is close to zero (see Figure 8), indicating that the economic operation is generally stable.

Second, the rapid rise of interest rates in mid-2013 and the end of 2016 is closely related to the shift of monetary policy to deleveraging to prevent risks and the tightening of regulatory policies.During the above two rounds of interest rate hikes, the growth rate of leverage ratio in the financial sector declined (see Figure 9). Among them, in 2013, in order to strictly control banks’ off-balance-sheet loans (such as trust loans) to promote the disorderly expansion of non-standard assets (see Figure 10), and to prevent the rapid growth of interbank business from idling funds within the financial system and increasing the risk of maturity mismatch, the regulatory authorities issued a series of regulatory measures, such as the Notice on Regulating the Investment Operation of Commercial Banks’ wealth management business (referred to as Circular No.8), which forced financial institutions to strengthen liquidity management and added a "default door" for a bank. In 2016, as the economy entered a new round of upward channel, and there were many problems of leverage and capital idling in the financial market, the primary goal of domestic monetary policy gradually shifted from steady growth to risk prevention. At the same time, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China took preventing and resolving major risks as the first of the three tough battles. In October 2016, the Politburo meeting clearly put forward "focusing on curbing asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks". In November 2017, new regulations on asset management were introduced, which started the domestic financial deleveraging campaign, and the leverage ratio growth rate of financial institutions increased from 20 in early 2016.

Looking back at the above two rounds of interest rate upward cycles, it is inseparable from the tightening of financial supervision policies. The deep-seated reason behind it is that when the economy is under great downward pressure, the central bank will often implement a loose policy of "releasing water to raise fish" to stimulate the economic recovery. At that time, the market liquidity is abundant but the return of the real economy is low, and the phenomenon of "asset shortage" is prominent, resulting in excess funds speculating on various virtual assets, chasing high-term spread assets, amplifying financial leverage and pushing up financial risks. However, when the economy starts to stabilize and rebound, the regulatory authorities will take the initiative to tighten monetary policy, resolve the risks bred in the early stage and reduce the policy sequelae, thus pushing interest rates upward. Therefore, the interest rate recovery is often in the period after the growth rate of social financing has recovered for a period of time or at the stage of bottoming out, that is, after the economy has stabilized and recovered, the convergence of liquidity at this time will also lead to the bottoming out of credit spreads (see Figure 11).

(3) The interest rate level will also be affected by other factors such as exchange rate, capital supply and demand.

First, monetary policy should not only achieve internal balance, but also take into account external balance, especially with the continuous improvement of China’s capital market opening level, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, so exchange rate factors have certain constraints on the central bank’s interest rate policy, although this constraint tends to weaken with the increase of exchange rate flexibility.According to "impossible trinity" theory, monetary policy must give up some independence when allowing capital to flow freely and keeping the exchange rate relatively stable. For example, when the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index strengthens, attracting international capital to return; If other economies do not follow the tightening of monetary policy, they will often face greater capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation pressure, thus aggravating the domestic capital market turmoil.

From the domestic practical experience, from 1989 to 2019, the Federal Reserve started four interest rate hike cycles, in which the domestic interest rate increased in different degrees three times, and only in 1999-2000 did China keep the interest rate unchanged (see Figure 12).The main reason why the interest rate did not move was that the GDP growth rate dropped from 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 1989 to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and the sharp economic downturn did not support monetary tightening. In 2022, the Federal Reserve started the interest rate hike cycle again, and the domestic monetary policy was "I-oriented", which lowered interest rates, partly due to the increase in exchange rate flexibility, which improved the flexibility and operational space of monetary policy, but this did not mean that domestic monetary policy was not affected and constrained by the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Second, the supply and demand of funds will have an impact on the short-term fluctuation of interest rates.If the money supply and social financing scale represent the macro-level social capital supply and demand respectively, then the difference between the growth rate of social financing and money supply indicates the relative change of capital demand and supply. The bigger the difference, the more the demand for funds exceeds the supply, the more obvious the tension of funds in the market, and the more the interest rate of funds will rise, and vice versa. Empirical data does confirm this point. Since 2015, the difference (social financing growth rate -M2 growth rate) and the yield of 10-year government bonds have fluctuated obviously and have a high correlation (see Figure 13).

An interesting phenomenon is that since 2011, the 10-year bond yield has a high linkage with social financing, but the correlation with the change of money supply has obviously decreased (see Figure 14).Theoretically speaking, the growth rate of M2 should be inversely related to the interest rate, but this relationship is obviously weakened after 2011. The main reasons behind this are as follows: On the one hand, with the acceleration of domestic interest rate marketization, coupled with the rapid development of financial innovation and disintermediation, China’s monetary control mode is gradually shifting from monetary quantity control to price control, which leads to the weakening of the correlation between money supply and economic growth and interest rate level; On the other hand, the money supply M2 reflects more how strong the countercyclical policy is than the growth of the real economy. Different from M2, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is consistent with the growth rate of social financing, which reflects that the domestic interest rate depends more on the financing demand of the real economy, and the financing demand is behind the growth of the real economy, especially the strong and weak changes of domestic demand. In the final analysis, economic growth is still the decisive force leading the trend of medium and long-term interest rates.

(4) Summary

To sum up, the domestic interest rate level is determined by the multiple objectives of monetary policy, but the core factors that affect our interest rate level at present are still economic growth and inflation, and with the obvious slowdown of domestic price fluctuations in recent years, the former plays a leading role in determining the direction of interest rate changes. In addition, factors such as financial stability and exchange rate can not dominate the direction of interest rate changes, but will strengthen the trend of interest rate changes and increase its fluctuation range. When the economy is in the recovery channel, financial risk prevention and other goals will push interest rates up; When the economy is in a downward cycle, financial risk prevention, exchange rate stability and other goals need to make way for economic growth, and interest rates generally fluctuate and fall.

Second, the short-term trend of domestic interest rates: first, the fluctuation bottomed out, and then the probability of recovery was too high.

(A) Based on the interest rate analysis framework: the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may bottom out first and then rise.

1. The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term.

Whether the PPI price index has dropped first or the current replenishment time has reached the highest level in history, it is a high probability event for China to enter a new round of destocking cycle in the future (see Figure 15). What needs to be pointed out here is that since 2021, the growth rate of domestic inventory has been greatly deviated from the growth rate of GDP and the trend of interest rate level, that is, while enterprises replenish inventory, the economic growth rate has dropped rapidly and sharply, and the interest rate has also dropped (see Figure 16). The reason is that the macro-and micro-policies have been tightened simultaneously in 2021, which has led to the rapid and substantial reduction of the leverage ratio of entities (see Figure 17). Coupled with the epidemic disturbance this year, demand has shrunk rapidly and inventory has been passively improved. Therefore, to judge the future trend of economy and interest rate, we need to comprehensively consider many factors such as inventory cycle, epidemic situation and counter-cyclical policy, and we can’t just observe one indicator of inventory cycle.

It is expected that the probability of weak economic fundamentals in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply.First, with the marginal alleviation of the short-term impact of the epidemic, the recovery of people flow and logistics, and the slight stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of social integration, the leading indicator of the economy (see Figure 18-19), the marginal recovery of the domestic economic growth rate in the second half of the year can be expected from the "deep pit" of 0.4% (constant price) in the second quarter. Second, the inventory cycle has entered a new round of decline channel, which will inevitably restrict the economic recovery. Third, although the growth rate of domestic social integration has stabilized and rebounded, the structure mainly relies on the financial front, and the credit growth rate is still falling, reflecting that the problem of insufficient effective social demand is severe and the economic recovery should not be overestimated. Looking at the extended cycle, China’s credit growth has been difficult in recent years, mainly due to the weakening trend of infrastructure and real estate, which used to have a large credit demand (see Figure 20), while the demand for other loans with relatively small volume is difficult to make up for the credit demand gap, which leads to the decline or normalization of China’s credit growth rate during the shift of new and old kinetic energy, which also means that the mode of stimulating economic growth by financial expansion is unsustainable, and it is necessary to cultivate new kinetic energy and new social purchasing power, create new credit demand, and smoothly spend the shift of growth rate.

2. Short-term inflationary pressure rises, which supports the upward trend of interest rates.

According to historical experience, when the domestic prices of pigs, oil and grain rise in resonance, the inflationary pressure tends to be greater (continuously exceeding the inflation target of 3%). On the contrary, if the prices of pigs and oil hedge each other and the food price is moderate, the inflation risk is relatively small and the time for the price to continue to rise is relatively short (see Figure 21).

Looking into the future, influenced by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig food prices, the high oil prices, the recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around 3% or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates.

First, a new round of "pig cycle" has been launched, and this round of pig price increase is second only to the African swine fever period in 2019.Historical experience shows that each round of "pig cycle" in China lasts about four years, and the first 1.5-2 years are the upward period of prices. In April this year, the domestic pork price went down to the stage low point, which is about four years from the starting point of the last cycle. Since May, the pig price has continued to rise, indicating that a new round of "pig cycle" has started, and it may usher in an upward period of more than one year in the future. Judging from the increase of this round of pig cycle, due to the weak demand recovery and the slow speed of supply, it is expected that the increase of pig price in this round will hardly exceed that of African swine fever in 2019. However, at the end of July, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities has risen to 29 yuan/kg, and extreme weather may have a certain negative impact on the supply of pigs. In the future, the pig price will probably continue to rise moderately (see Figure 22), and the increase is expected to exceed several rounds of pig cycles that began in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Second, the rise of international food prices is superimposed on extreme weather, and the risk of food price fluctuation in China may increase in the future.Benefiting from the low dependence of China’s three staple foods on foreign countries and sufficient domestic stocks, the increase in international food prices in the first half of the year has relatively little impact on China, which mainly drives domestic CPI through cost channels. However, two factors may increase the risk of food price fluctuation in China in the future. First, the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on global food prices, such as reduced grain production, rising grain production costs and slowing food trade, has yet to be revealed. In addition, the rise of food protectionism (the number of countries that issued food export bans in 2022 was as high as 24, second only to the 28 in 2008 food crisis), it is hard to say that the warning of future global food crisis has been lifted. Second, the impact of extreme weather on the global and China’s food prices may have increased: on the one hand, according to the statistics of the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July this year was the second hottest July in the world since statistics were available in 1880, and China also ushered in the hottest summer since statistics were available in 1961. It is expected that the negative impact of high temperature and dry weather on food production will gradually emerge; On the other hand, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that there is a 60% probability that La Nina will continue from December 2022 to February 2023, which means that a rare "triple" La Nina climate event may occur this year, and the world will face the test of cold winter, or further push up the global and Chinese food prices (see Figure 23-24).

Third, international oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high position, and China’s imported inflationary pressure still exists.For example, geopolitical conflicts and global energy transformation will restrict the improvement of this round of crude oil supply, and the cold winter weather is expected to partially hedge the impact of the decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic downturn. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a high position in a high probability during the year.

Fourth, abundant domestic liquidity and improved consumer demand will also support the rise of CPI center. On the one hand,Economic recovery after the epidemic is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate and increasing residents’ income, thus boosting residents’ consumption ability and willingness. In addition, after the epidemic is controlled, the consumption scene has improved, and residents have accumulated rich savings in the early stage (see Figure 25), which has accumulated energy for future consumption demand recovery.On the other hand,Since the second half of last year, the domestic money supply has been loose, and the growth rate of M2 has increased from a low of 8.2% in August last year to 12% in July this year, which is much higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, setting a new high since the outbreak, and will also support the rise of CPI center.

3. The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation of wide currency into wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on interest rates.

First, the spread between China and the United States may remain upside down for a long time, which will increase the upward pressure on interest rates through exchange rate channels.Affected by high inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates four times during the year, raising the target interest rate of the federal funds from 0-0.25% to 2.25-2.5% (see Figure 26), and the Fed is still on the way to continue raising interest rates during the year. During the same period, the pressure of steady growth of domestic economy was great, and interest rates were cut twice during the year. The dislocation of financial cycles between China and the United States deepened, and the yields of 10-year government bonds of the two countries continued to be upside down. This trend will continue in the short term. According to historical experience, the falling or even upside-down spread between China and the United States will increase the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow (see Figure 27). In order to take into account the external balance, domestic monetary policy easing will be restrained to some extent.

Second, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, it will also restrict the downside of interest rates.Since the beginning of this year, domestic real estate-related credit has shrunk sharply, and the proportion of new real estate loans to all new credit has turned negative in the second quarter (see Figure 28), indicating that the repayment scale of residents and housing enterprises has exceeded the amount of real estate loans lent by banks. Affected by this, the transmission of domestic wide money to wide credit has been impeded. In July, the difference between the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2 hit a new low since statistics were available (see Figure 14). However, in the future, the positive factors have increased significantly. For example, after the 5-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 15BP again on August 22, the domestic personal housing loan interest rate may have been lower than the 2016 low, only slightly higher than that after the 2008 financial crisis. Generally speaking, the mortgage interest rate is about 6 months ahead of the growth rate of real estate loans. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic mortgage interest rate has continued to fall rapidly, which indicates that the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up in the future (see Figure 29). With the gradual recovery of real estate credit from a very low position and the continuous efforts of "one city, one policy", the transformation from wide currency to wide credit is expected to accelerate, which will restrict the downward space of interest rates in the future.

To sum up, the economic recovery is weak and the regulatory policies are difficult to tighten, but the inflationary pressure is increasing, the spread between China and the United States continues to be upside down, and the wide currency is transformed into wide credit. It is expected that the interest rate will have limited room for further decline in the current position. In the next few quarters, the domestic 10-year national debt income will be the first to oscillate and bottom out, and the probability of rising later is too high.

(B) Based on quantitative analysis: the current yield of 10-year treasury bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and the high probability gradually converges upward.

In the medium and long term, the market interest rate should be equivalent to the desirable interest rate level that can not only ensure the economic operation at the potential output level, but also achieve the goals of price stability, full employment and financial stability. In this paper, the general Taylor rule method is used to measure the desirable interest rate level in China, and it is compared with the market interest rate to see whether there is overshoot at present, and thus to judge the future market interest rate trend.

According to Taylor rule, the interest rate level is mainly determined by inflation gap and output gap. With the diversification of the central bank’s monetary policy objectives and the development of financial markets, we add exchange rate and social financing scale factors to the basic Taylor rule to fit and measure the current acceptable level of China’s 10-year national debt yield. Taylor’s rule regression equation shows that the current yield level of ten-year treasury bonds is obviously lower than the desired interest rate level (see Figure 30), which means that the interest rate level is lower than the desired interest rate level that matches the current economic growth, prices, exchange rate and liquidity. According to past experience, when the interest rate gap (market interest rate-desirable interest rate) falls below -0.4%, the probability of market interest rate converging upward to desirable interest rate is greater, and it is only a matter of time before the market interest rate rises in the future.

(3) Based on historical experience: If there is no unexpected impact, the interest rate will fall first and then rise after the interest rate cut boots land.

No matter from the economic fundamentals or quantitative point of view, we all think that the interest rate will converge marginally in the future with a high probability, but the market is still skeptical about whether the interest rate will really go up. There is an important reason behind it, that is, the economic data in July was significantly less than expected, and after the loan suspension risk incident, the central bank unexpectedly lowered the policy interest rates of MLF and OMO on August 15, which rekindled the market’s expectation of starting a new round of interest rate reduction cycle in China.

Historical experience does show that after the central bank cuts interest rates continuously, the market interest rate will tend to decline in the short term, but it also shows that as long as the credit data improves and the economy gradually stabilizes after the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year government bonds will open the recovery channel after the interest rate cut boots land. For example, in 2012 and 2019, there were unexpected interest rate cuts, but after that, interest rates rebounded with the improvement of the economy, rather than falling. Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether to continue to cut interest rates after cutting interest rates, depending on the marginal changes in economic fundamentals.

1. In 2012, interest rates were cut twice in a row: the yield of ten-year government bonds only dropped by 14BP, and then the journey of recovery began.

After the second quarter of 2011, the domestic economy continued to slow down. However, because the CPI has been above 3%, the central bank is cautious in cutting interest rates, mainly by lowering the RRR to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (see Figure 31-32). Until mid-2012, with the CPI growth rate falling below 3%, coupled with the superimposed influence of the economic downturn, repeated wide credit (see Figure 33) and the further intensification of the European debt crisis caused by bank runs in overseas Greece, the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July respectively (see Figure 32). After two interest rate cuts, the cumulative maximum downward rate of 10-year treasury bond yield is about 14BP. However, as the credit growth rate announced after the interest rate cut returned to the upward trend, the economy gradually confirmed its stabilization, and the yield of 10-year government bonds began to turn upside down, starting an upward cycle (see Figure 32-33).

2. Unexpected interest rate cut in 2019: The yield of ten-year government bonds fell by about 9BP, and the downside was reopened after the outbreak of the epidemic.

After the second half of 2018, the domestic economy continued to slow down, and the CPI growth rate was less than 3% in the same period (see Figure 34). In order to prevent financial risks, the central bank was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and also chose to lower the RRR first to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (4 RRR cuts in 2018 and 5 RRR cuts in 2019), which promoted the growth rate of domestic social integration and credit to continue to rise to March 2019. However, due to the escalation of trade friction and the occurrence of risk events such as Baoshang Bank, the domestic credit contraction pressure increased significantly in 2019, and the credit growth rate dropped again after the first quarter of the same year. At the same time, the PMI index was below 50% of threshold for six consecutive months, and the downward pressure on the economy increased (see Figure 35-36). Therefore, although the CPI growth rate broke through 3% from September to October in 2019 (the soaring pork price increased the structural inflationary pressure), after the PMI fell to 49.3% in October, hitting an eight-month low, the central bank cut the MLF interest rate by 5BP in early November (see Figure 35). After the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped by about 9BP, and then gradually stabilized. At the end of December, the COVID-19 outbreak broke out in China, which further reopened the downward space of interest rates (see Figure 35).

To sum up, during the economic downturn in 2012 and 2019, the central bank was cautious about cutting interest rates at first. However, due to some unexpected risk events, continuous credit contraction and sustained downward pressure on the economy, the central bank still took interest rate cuts at the end of the economic downturn, and the timing of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Both rounds of interest rate cuts pushed interest rates down slightly in the short term, but in 2012, as the economy stabilized, interest rates quickly turned upward, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 further opened up the downside of interest rates.

Similar to 2012 and 2019, in 2022, the central bank was also cautious about comprehensively lowering the policy interest rate. For example, after the interest rate was cut by 10BP in January 2022, despite the unexpected rebound of domestic epidemic in the second quarter, the central bank did not immediately reduce the policy interest rate. It was not until July that the economy turned downward again on the way to recovery and there were twists and turns in credit easing that the central bank cut interest rates again beyond expectations (see Figure 37-38). According to the experience of two rounds of interest rate cuts that exceeded expectations in 2012 and 2019, if the domestic economy gradually stabilizes in the short term, the transformation from wide currency to wide credit accelerates, and the yield of 10-year government bonds drops slightly, the recovery channel will be gradually started; If there is an unexpected risk event, such as the real estate recovery continues to be less than expected, the risk spreads to other fields or even systemic risks, it is also expected that the central bank will cut interest rates quickly, continuously and substantially, and the interest rate center is expected to drop significantly again until the economy stabilizes, but at present, this probability is too small.

(4) Summary

Based on the analysis of the above three perspectives, it is estimated that the yield of domestic 10-year government bonds will probably bottom out first and then rise in the next few quarters:1）The weak recovery of domestic economy does not support a sharp rise in interest rates in the short term, and even does not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates again. However, with the increasing pressure to stabilize prices and exchange rates, the constraints on monetary easing are also obvious. In addition, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future will increase. It is only a question of whether the recovery speed or slope can be as expected, and the trend of interest rate recovery is relatively clear.2）At present, the domestic market interest rate has been much lower than the desired interest rate level, and it is only a matter of time before it converges upward;3）Historical experience shows that the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term, but if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economy is confirmed to stabilize, the interest rate will open a recovery channel.

In addition, the current real interest rate level in China is not high, and monetary policy is constrained by insufficient demand. The effect of monetary easing on stimulating economic growth is limited, but it may bring more sequelae. Unless it encounters extreme unexpected shocks, it is not necessary to continue to loosen the currency substantially. First, China’s real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) has been continuously lower than the actual economic growth rate. Governor Yi Gang of the Central Bank pointed out in the article "Interest Rate System and Interest Rate Marketization Reform in China" that the real interest rate R after inflation adjustment should be equal to the real economic growth rate G. However, most of the time, the real interest rate in China is lower than the actual economic growth rate, which tends to distort the allocation of financial resources and bring about inflation, asset price bubbles, idle funds and other problems. At present, the real interest rate of RMB loans in China has been at a low level below 1.5% for five consecutive quarters (see Figure 39), and the growth rate has been lower than the real GDP except for the second quarter of this year. Second, the core contradiction facing China’s economy at present is insufficient effective demand. Monetary easing is constrained by banks’ reluctance to borrow and enterprises’ reluctance to borrow, and it is difficult for monetary policy to promote the "soft rope". Therefore, fiscal policy needs more efforts. Monetary policy should cooperate with fiscal policy to provide suitable liquidity and financing environment, and blindly easing will not help accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the current economic structure.

　 　This article was first published on WeChat WeChat official account: Seeing the Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

　　Author: He Junming and Sun Huayu (both are special researchers of Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought Research Center, the supreme leader of Fujian Province, and professors of Marxism College of Xiamen University of Technology).

　　When presiding over the sixth collective study in the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "we should pay attention to drawing theoretical innovation wisdom from the creation of the masses". If a society wants to be prosperous and full of vigor and vitality, it must constantly carry out theoretical innovation. People’s nature is the essential attribute of Marxism. The Party’s theory comes from the people, for the people and for the benefit of the people. The people’s creative practice is an inexhaustible source of theoretical innovation. The important exposition of the Supreme Leader General Secretary adheres to the Marxist historical materialism and the standpoint of people first, which clarifies the source of the party’s theoretical innovation and provides a fundamental follow-up for constantly writing a new chapter in the modernization of Marxism in China.

　　The people are the creators of history.

　　Marx and Engels systematically thought about the relationship between man and history, holding that the primary premise of human history is "the existence of living individuals", and pointed out that history is the history of living people in material form, not the history of spirit or will. Social existence determines social consciousness and mode of production determines social development, which is the basic viewpoint of Marxist historical materialism. Material production activities are the basic conditions of all history, and all social life is practical in essence. Marx clearly pointed out in the Manuscript of Economics and Philosophy in 1844 that history "is nothing more than a process in which people are born through human labor, and it is a process in which nature generates for people". Man creates history through his own practical activities, and social history is composed of his practical activities, and man is the real subject of social history.

　　The people are the creators of material wealth and spiritual wealth. Marxist historical materialism holds that people’s practical activities not only create an objective material world, but also create a rich spiritual world. The people are the creators of material wealth. Material production is the premise of all history. Without certain material production, there can be no human history. The material materials needed for human survival and development are produced by the broad masses of the people. As the main body of material production activities, the people constantly accumulate production experience in practice, innovate and create production technologies, and promote the development of productive forces and the growth of social material wealth. The people are also creators of spiritual wealth. Social existence determines social consciousness, which is a reflection of social existence. The production practice of the people provides a material basis for the creation of spiritual wealth, and all spiritual wealth is rooted in the practical activities of the people.

　　General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "The people are the driving force to create history, and we communist party people should never forget this most basic truth of historical materialism." Productivity is the fundamental driving force for the development of human society. The contradictory movement between productivity and production relations promotes the continuous development of human society, and the people are the most active factors for the transformation of productivity. The people’s subjective practical activities constitute the foundation of social life, and all social changes are based on this foundation. While creating material wealth and spiritual wealth, the people also create and transform social relations of production. Any social change cannot be separated from the people’s active participation and the people’s enthusiasm and initiative. Marx and Engels pointed out that "historical activities are the activities of the masses, and with the deepening of historical activities, it will certainly expand the ranks of the masses." Although heroes also play an important role in historical development and change, social change ultimately depends on the will, wishes and interests of the broad masses of the people. From the perspective of historical materialism, only the people are the real creators of history and the fundamental driving force for social change and social reform and development.

　　2. People’s creative practice is an inexhaustible source of theoretical innovation.

　　Great times need great theories. The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China’s Resolution on the Great Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party’s Centennial Struggle takes "persisting in theoretical innovation" as one of the historical experiences of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s Centennial Struggle, and points out: "As long as we are brave enough to combine new practices and constantly promote theoretical innovation and be good at guiding new practices with new theories, we will certainly be able to show Marxism a stronger and more convincing truth force on the land of China." The reason why our party can make great achievements in various historical periods lies in mastering Marxist scientific theory and constantly promoting theoretical innovation in combination with new realities. We should constantly deepen our understanding of the regularity of the party’s theoretical innovation and achieve more fruitful theoretical innovation results in the new era and new journey.

　　Marxist historical materialism points out that theory is a rational social consciousness, and theoretical innovation is the need of the unity of social existence and social consciousness, which cannot be divorced from the objective law that social existence determines social consciousness and social consciousness reacts on social existence. On the basis of material production and spiritual production, people’s understanding of truth is refined and summed up in the cycle from sensibility to rationality to practice. Theoretical innovation must be based on social practice, and the main body of practice is the people. Marxism defines the people’s dominant position in social production practice and points out the "creative" nature of the people in the process of complex social practice. Marxism is a theory that stands for the people and speaks for them. It was founded to change people’s destiny and enriched and developed in people’s practice of seeking liberation. the Communist Party of China (CPC) is a political party guided by Marxism. To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, it must be closely combined with people’s creative practice, which is an inexhaustible source of Marxist theoretical innovation.

　　Looking back on the history of the Party’s struggle for a hundred years, we can see that the reason why our Party has made great achievements in various historical periods of revolution, construction and reform, and has been able to lead the people to accomplish arduous tasks that other political forces in China can’t, lies in mastering Marxist scientific theory and constantly promoting theoretical innovation in light of new realities. He has made great theoretical achievements such as Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Theory of Three Represents, Scientific Outlook on Development and Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era, and has always adhered to emancipating the mind, seeking truth from facts, advancing with the times, seeking truth and being pragmatic, which has made Marxism glow with great vitality in China and enabled the Party to master a powerful force of truth. The party’s theoretical innovation results all come from people’s wisdom, people’s exploration and people’s creation. Adhering to the people’s supremacy is a profound summary of the Communist Party of China (CPC)’s valuable experience in the past 100 years and an unswerving pursuit of value, which is an important embodiment of Marxist people’s view. History has created the Communist Party of China (CPC) in the people’s exploration and struggle, and the Communist Party of China (CPC) led the people to create new historical glory. During the period of new-democratic revolution, socialist revolution and construction, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people, with Comrade Mao Zedong as the main representative, combined the basic principles of Marxism with China’s concrete reality, insisted on integrating theory with practice and keeping close contact with the masses, and with the strong support and sincere support of the broad masses of the people, absorbed the wisdom of the masses and relied on the strength of the people, and founded Mao Zedong Thought through hard exploration. Comrade Mao Zedong pointed out, "As long as we rely on the people,Firmly believe that the creativity of the people is endless, so trust the people and become one with them, and then any difficulties can be overcome. " In the new era of reform, opening up and socialist modernization, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people continue to rely on the creative practice of the people and lead the cause development with theoretical innovation. At the end of 1970s, the practice of "all-in-one contract" from Xiaogang Village, Fengyang, Anhui Province directly started the rural reform in China. The party’s major theoretical innovations all come from the people’s creative practice, which shows the people’s creative wisdom. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the people of the Communist Party of China (CPC), with the Supreme Leader as the main representative, have persisted in combining the basic principles of Marxism with the concrete reality of China and the excellent traditional Chinese culture, scientifically answered the major issues of the times such as what kind of Socialism with Chinese characteristics and how to uphold and develop Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, and created the Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era. The Supreme Leader’s Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the New Era is contemporary China Marxism and 21st century Marxism, and it is the essence of Chinese culture and China spirit, which has achieved a new leap in the modernization of Marxism in China.

　　3. To promote the theoretical innovation of the Party, we must follow the mass line.

　　To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, we must go deep into the people and do a good job of investigation and research. The people are the creators of history and the decisive force to promote social development and change. Investigation and research is the heirloom of our party, the foundation of seeking things and the way to achieve things. Investigation is the source of insight. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has attached great importance to investigation and research. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader took the lead in setting an example and went deep into the people. The footprints of investigation and research spread all over the country, setting a shining example for the whole party to do a good job in investigation and research. Going deep into the people to do a good job in investigation and research is the basis of continuously promoting the theoretical innovation of the Party, and it is also the practical need to keep sober and firm in solving the unique problems of the big party and answer the "six how to always". To promote the party’s theoretical innovation, we must not build a car behind closed doors, sit and talk about the road, and become a pipe dream. The General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed, "We should worship the people as teachers, learn from the people, put down our airs, throw ourselves down, be grounded, understand the situation, conduct in-depth investigation and study, dissect sparrows, find typical examples, truly find out the problems faced by the masses, reflect their opinions and sum up the experience created by the masses." The social practice of the masses is not only the object of our investigation and study, but also the inexhaustible source of our correct understanding. The masses not only know the actual situation best, but also contain the wisdom and strength to solve problems. Only by doing a good job of investigation and study can we continuously promote the party’s theoretical innovation.

　　Promoting the Party’s theoretical innovation must respect the people’s initiative. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "we should respect the people’s initiative, pay attention to summing up fresh experiences from the people’s creative practice, upgrade to rational understanding and refine new theoretical achievements". Respecting the people’s initiative is determined by the nature and purpose of our party, which embodies the Marxist historical values. The development of society is always based on giving full play to people’s subjective initiative and respecting people’s initiative. The will, desire, requirement and practice of the people reflect the trend of social development and embody the law of social development. At present, the changes of the world, times and history are unfolding in an unprecedented way. The "two overall situations" are accelerating and interacting deeply. China’s development has entered a period in which strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist and uncertainties and unpredictable factors increase. It is even more necessary for us to persist in taking the people as the center, respect the people’s initiative, fully stimulate the creative power contained in the people, pay attention to the unity of top-level design and consultation with the people, and constantly gain new understanding from summing up the people’s creative practice.

　　Let the party’s innovative theory penetrate into the hearts of hundreds of millions of people. Report to the 20th CPC National Congress pointed out that it is necessary to "build a socialist ideology with strong cohesion and leading power" and "improve the system of arming the whole party, educating the people and guiding practice with the Party’s innovative theory". If great thoughts want generate’s great strength, they must be transformed into concrete social practice, rely on the people as the main body of social practice, and make the innovation theory consciously recognized and sincerely supported by the people, making it a powerful ideological weapon to guide the people to understand and transform the world. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader stressed, "Insist on inner-party education to guide and drive the learning of the whole society, and let the party’s innovative theory ‘ Fly into the homes of ordinary people ’ " . Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era is contemporary China Marxism and 21st century Marxism, and it is the essence of Chinese culture and China spirit. We should persist in casting our souls with Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era, carry out in-depth study, publicity and interpretation in the whole party and society, guide the broad masses of party member, cadres and the masses to deeply understand the decisive significance of the "two establishment", strengthen the "four consciousnesses", strengthen the "four self-confidences" and achieve the "two maintenance".Consciously maintain a high degree of unity with the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core in ideological and political actions, and unite and struggle for building a socialist modern country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way. It is necessary to establish a people-centered work orientation, combine serving the people with guiding them to learn the Party’s innovative theory, grasp the theoretical concerns of the people, constantly innovate theoretical propaganda methods, and strive to make the Party’s innovative theory penetrate into the hearts of hundreds of millions of people and become a theory that is grounded, gathers people’s wisdom, conforms to the will of the people, and wins the hearts of the people, bringing together the majestic forces for building a socialist modern country and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 17 (Xinhua News Agency) Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency reporters in Havana and Washington reported that the Cuban Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 16th, saying that the US government’s announcement on the same day to relax some sanctions against Cuba was a "limited step" in the right direction, but the US has not changed its policy of blockade and "extreme pressure" on Cuba.

　　On the 16th, the State Council announced some adjustments to Cuba’s measures, including increasing the consular services of the US Embassy in Cuba and the number of visas for visiting the United States, simplifying the application procedures for American families to visit relatives in Cuba, canceling the quarterly remittance limit of US$ 1,000 to Cuban relatives, supporting the donation of remittances to Cuban entrepreneurs, and providing small loans and training support to Cuban private economic practitioners.

　　The Cuban Foreign Ministry responded that the measures against Cuba announced by the US government were "positive but the coverage was very limited". The United States has not lifted the long-term blockade against Cuba, nor has it removed Cuba from the list of "countries supporting terrorism", and still maintains most of the sanctions imposed on Cuba during the administration of former US President Trump.

　　The statement reiterated that the Cuban government is willing to conduct a respectful dialogue with the US government on the basis of equality without interfering in internal affairs and fully respecting independence and sovereignty.

　　After the victory of the Cuban revolution in 1959, the US government adopted a hostile policy towards Cuba. In 1961, the United States and Cuba broke off diplomatic relations. In 1962, then US President Kennedy officially announced the implementation of economic and financial blockade and trade embargo against Cuba. In 2015, the two countries resumed diplomatic relations, but the United States did not completely lift the ancient blockade. After the Trump administration took office in 2017, the United States once again tightened its policy toward Cuba and continuously upgraded its sanctions against Cuba. (Participating in reporters: Zhu Wanjun, Lin Zhaohui, Deng Xianlai)

　　Recently, mycoplasma infection and mycoplasma pneumonia have become high-frequency words in mom circle. Three years after the epidemic in COVID-19, before the arrival of mycoplasma infection, children have experienced several rounds of infectious diseases, which are influenza, syncytial virus infection, infectious diarrhea, herpetic angina and so on. From the beginning of school in March this year to the present, "one disease per month" children account for a considerable proportion.

　　The epidemic time of mycoplasma was advanced, and it spread widely.

　　During the epidemic in COVID-19, because everyone wears masks, washes hands frequently, keeps social distance, increases ventilation and disinfects more surfaces, children’s contact with other pathogens is reduced, and the incidence of virus and bacterial infections is reduced. However, everything has two sides. The decrease of infection makes the immune stimulation of pathogens insufficient, the susceptible population increases and the group immunity decreases. After reducing the intensity and scale of group protection in many countries, the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus and other pathogens increased significantly. In this context, experts put forward the concept of immune debt during COVID-19 (the above content was quoted from the No.1 issue of journal of applied clinical pediatrics Journal of China, Volume 38, January 2023, "Immune debt and its influence during the epidemic of children in novel coronavirus").

　　To put it simply, COVID-19’s three-year-old children may get one disease at a time. The flu hit first, and now it’s mycoplasma’s turn.

　　Mycoplasma is a prokaryotic microorganism similar to bacteria but without cell wall, which is between bacteria and viruses, smaller than bacteria and larger than viruses, and is the main pathogenic microorganism of respiratory tract infection. Most common mycoplasma epidemics occur in November and December every year, and this year is advanced to August and September, which affects a wider range of people. The children’s condition is biased and the course of disease is long.

　　Mycoplasma pneumonia has typical characteristics, and children should be vigilant in the following situations.

　　1. Severe irritating dry cough: Severe cough is a prominent symptom of this disease. At the beginning, it is a dry cough, and the cough is stubborn and severe. The child can’t stop coughing and even affect the activities during the day and sleep at night. Late sputum, cough is still severe.

　　2. Fever: high fever is common. If not treated, the fever will persist. There are also people with low body temperature or even no fever, which are relatively few.

　　3. Auscultation often does not hear rales: general doctors with lung infections can hear wet rales, but most of mycoplasma pneumonia can’t hear rales. The auscultation of the lung is very inconsistent with the clinical manifestations such as severe cough and high fever, which has become one of the characteristics of this disease. Therefore, the diagnosis of mycoplasma pneumonia often needs chest radiography to assist the diagnosis.

　　4. Chest X-ray: Typical mycoplasma pneumonia often shows large shadows in the lungs.

　　5. Routine blood test: Routine blood test of mycoplasma has no characteristics, unlike typical bacterial infection, where the total number of white blood cells, neutrophils and CRP are all increased, and unlike virus infection, which is basically normal, white blood cells are often normal or high, or one of them is high.

　　6. Mycoplasma pneumoniae antibody test: Mycoplasma antibody test positive can help diagnosis, but negative can not be excluded. And mycoplasma antibodies are often not detected at the early stage of the disease, which is not helpful for early diagnosis.

　　These are the characteristics of typical mycoplasma pneumonia, but actually not all mycoplasma pneumonia show these characteristics. Clinically, some children only have a high fever and their cough is not obvious. In the clinic, I once met a child who had a fever for 5 days, accompanied by a mild cough for 2 days, and a film was also pneumonia. Some children have no obvious fever, only moderate to low fever, and even have no fever but cough is very severe, and filming is also pneumonia.

　　About mycoplasma infection, these problems should be clear.

　　Will children get pneumonia if they are infected with mycoplasma? Mycoplasma pneumonia is very difficult, okay? Will there be sequelae? Parents have too many questions to answer.

　　First of all, it should be noted that infection with mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) does not necessarily lead to pneumonia. Mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) can not only cause pneumonia, but also cause upper respiratory tract infection (common cold symptoms) and tracheitis.

　　Which children are susceptible to mycoplasma (mycoplasma pneumoniae) infection? Mycoplasma pneumoniae mainly infects children aged 5-9, that is, school-age children. Recently, this wave of mycoplasma infection has spread to a wider age group, and infants also have severe mycoplasma pneumonia.

　　How to treat mycoplasma pneumonia? Once mycoplasma pneumonia is diagnosed, macrolide drugs such as erythromycin and azithromycin are given for treatment. Mycoplasma infection is not sensitive to penicillins and cephalosporins.

　　Why do children still progress to pneumonia after taking azithromycin? Is it delayed? Azithromycin is a specific drug for treating mycoplasma infection. Some children took azithromycin orally in the early stage of fever, but their condition was still getting worse and more serious pneumonia appeared. Parents often don’t quite understand why they developed pneumonia after taking azithromycin at the early stage of taking their children to see a doctor. The reason for this is complicated, which may be related to the variation or drug resistance of mycoplasma. It may also be related to the child’s poor rest after illness, or to the child’s physique.

　　Mycoplasma pneumonia is very difficult, okay? Will there be sequelae? Mycoplasma pneumonia has a good prognosis after regular treatment. However, there are also serious mycoplasma pneumonia, and the effect of antibiotic treatment is not ideal, so special drugs such as hormones are needed, and some need bronchoscopy to assist diagnosis and treatment.

　　If mycoplasma pneumonia is diagnosed, the child should be treated completely according to the doctor’s requirements, and hospitalization is needed if necessary. Have a good rest during and after the treatment, and don’t take classes with illness. After the treatment, you need a rest period.

　　How to prevent mycoplasma pneumonia? When the child is at school, the class should actively open the window for ventilation; Children should carry out appropriate physical activities to increase immunity; Don’t arrange extracurricular classes and physical classes too full, but step by step, so that children can have an adaptation process; Drink plenty of water, don’t eat too much, and ensure daily defecation. Daily ventilation should be ensured in the family. If children have mycoplasma infection, isolation should be implemented as much as possible to reduce cross-infection in the family.

[ITBEAR] Recently, the state’s support for the new energy automobile industry has continued to increase, and a series of policies and measures aimed at promoting the development of electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing (referred to as "new four modernizations") have been introduced one after another, injecting strong impetus into the market. Among them, the subsidy policy of automobile trade-in has become the focus of consumers’ attention, and its market effect is remarkable.

The positive signal recently released by the National Development and Reform Commission is even more exciting for consumers, and the national subsidy policy is expected to continue to be implemented in the future, which undoubtedly provides more expectations for consumers who are interested in buying cars. According to the relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission, the support for the "two new" policies will be further increased in the future, and a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods will be promoted, and the subsidy policy for trade-in in the automobile field will play an important role.

Major car companies actively responded to the call of the state and introduced preferential policies for car purchase in succession, in order to get a share of the dividend of the state subsidy policy. From the replacement subsidy policies introduced by Cadillac, Star Road Star Era and Volvo at Guangzhou Auto Show to the active participation of brands such as Wuling Automobile, the market competition has become increasingly fierce. Car companies attract consumers’ attention by increasing subsidy amount, optimizing car purchase process and improving service quality, and strive to stand out in the fierce market competition.

However, while enjoying the policy dividend, consumers also need to pay attention to the specific implementation details of relevant policies. Although the National Development and Reform Commission has clearly stated that the state subsidy policy will continue, the specific subsidy standards and rules have not yet been finalized. When consumers apply for subsidies, they also need to prepare car purchase invoices, driving licenses and other relevant supporting documents to ensure the smooth receipt of subsidies.

For consumers who have not yet bought a car, the continuation of the national subsidy policy is undoubtedly good news. They can pay close attention to the policy trends, understand the preferential activities of car companies, and plan the car purchase plan in advance, so as to buy a car at the right time and enjoy the benefits brought by the policy.

　　On March 26,

　　The top ten scientific rumors list in 2022 was released.

　　Among them, vegetarians will not get fatty liver,

　　Ten widely circulated rumors, such as O-type blood attracts mosquitoes,

　　Selected as one of the top ten scientific rumors of the year.

　　In the newly released top ten scientific rumors list in 2022,

　　Are there any rumors that you have been "cheated"?

　　Let’s take a look

　　Myth 1-Vegetarian won’t get fatty liver.

　　People who are vegetarian for a long time, malnourished and excessively lose weight may also get fatty liver. The metabolism of fat needs apolipoprotein as a "vehicle". When protein’s intake is insufficient, there is not enough apolipoprotein in the body, and the liver cannot transport excess fat, which accumulates in the liver and leads to fatty liver.

　　Proverbs 2-It’s "faster" to get an injection after a child gets sick than to take medicine.

　　Most oral drugs will be eliminated by the first pass of the liver, and the effect will be relatively gentle, and the risk of drug resistance and adverse reactions will be reduced. However, injected drugs directly enter the human body, and the risk of adverse reactions increases. Usually, when it is not suitable for oral administration, injection will be chosen for administration.

　　Myth 3-After eating oranges, you will be positive for antigen or nucleic acid test.

　　Eating oranges is difficult to affect the test results. If the antigen is detected correctly, the sampling site is the nasal mucosa, and there will be no contact with food. Covid-19’s nucleic acid detection determines the result by amplifying Covid-19’s nucleic acid, which needs to be eluted and purified, and impurities have little influence on the detection result.

　　Proverbs 4-Potatoes germinate, and you can eat them by cutting them off.

　　Solanum nigrum is toxic. After potatoes germinate, its solanum nigrum content will be greatly increased. Ingesting 200mg solanum nigrum at a time, which is equivalent to about 30g of potatoes that have turned green or germinated, can make people toxic and even fatal. Potatoes with severe germination or unable to judge the degree of germination should never be eaten.

　　Myth 5 ——O-type blood attracts mosquitoes more

　　Mosquitoes identify the odor emitted by human body through tentacles, and choose the biting object through odor. The smell of people is mainly determined by genes, and this difference has nothing to do with blood type. People who recruit mosquitoes can generally adopt physical protection and chemical mosquito repellent methods.

　　Myth 6-Honey and garlic can treat Helicobacter pylori infection.

　　Internet-transmitted "sterilization artifacts" such as honey and garlic cannot treat Helicobacter pylori infection. Although bacteria will die because of water loss in honey, honey will be diluted when it enters the stomach, which can not achieve sterilization effect. Although allicin contained in garlic can inhibit the growth of bacteria, it will decompose after entering the human body, and it is difficult to play a bactericidal and bacteriostatic role.

　　Proverbs 7-After COVID-19 is infected, it is better to use drugs comprehensively.

　　This practice may be life-threatening. Each drug has strict usage and dosage, and taking multiple drugs without authorization can easily lead to repeated medication and overdose, which is harmful to human health. Patients who are treated at home are advised to use drugs according to the guidelines of the Health and Health Commission for home treatment, and do not use drugs in combination.

　　Myth 8-Myopia can be cured by surgery.

　　Myopia is irreversible. The cause of myopia is that the axial length of the eye becomes longer. At present, any means, including surgery and wearing glasses, can only correct vision, but can’t shorten the axial length and restore it to its original state, and can’t prevent complications caused by high myopia. Therefore, myopia prevention is more important.

　　Proverb 9-You can lose weight by eating only fruit.

　　Eating only fruit is difficult to lose weight and unhealthy. Protein, fat, carbohydrates, vitamins, minerals and other nutrients are needed to maintain health. Eating only fruit for a long time will lead to malnutrition, and some fruits have high sugar content, and excessive consumption will even increase weight.

　　Rumor 10-It is dangerous to have a substation near your home, so you need to move.

　　The AC frequency of China Substation is 50Hz, which is extremely low in the field of electromagnetic radiation, and the radiation range is very small, so residents need not worry. At the same time, the substation has a certain coverage area, that is, the power supply radius. If it exceeds the power supply radius, it can’t guarantee effective power supply, so the urban substation can’t stay away from residential areas at will.

　 　 　 　On November 28th, the public welfare film "Little Boy with Reunion Dinner" produced by Ningxia Zhongshi Film Co., Ltd., Tianjin Xinyue Culture Media Co., Ltd., Fujian Zhongwei Media Co., Ltd. and Henan Jintongxiang Culture Communication Co., Ltd., jointly produced by Shaanxi Yuchun Film Culture Media Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Yichen Film Technology Co., Ltd. and publicized by Shenzhen Yichen Film Technology Co., Ltd. was released nationwide a few days ago.

　 　 　 　It is reported that the creative team of the film "Little Boy with a Reunion Dinner" visited many families in the early stage of creation, and found that parents had different degrees of "lack of companionship" in the process of children’s growth. They chose the most representative family and the most grounded and touching details to create, which finally touched many people, and almost everyone who watched the film was deeply touched and moved to tears.

　 　 　 　The film tells the story of four children from three families who, in order to have a reunion dinner with their parents, traveled for 500 kilometers after two days of ice and fire, and finally reunited with their parents. At the script seminar, the propaganda minister of Hebi Municipal Committee and a member of the Henan Provincial Inspection Team of the Communist Party of China said: "China’s rapid development is due to Chinese’s diligence. In order to develop, parents have reduced their time with their children, and both parents and children have patience and dedication. It is well known that China has made great contributions to the development of the world, so the world should thank China and China’s parents and children."

　 　 　 　After attending the international film festival, the film "Little Boy with a Reunion Dinner" aroused widespread resonance and response. Up to now, it has been nominated for the best costume design, the most talented new director, the jury award, the best foreign language film actor and the best foreign language film at the 17th London World Film Festival. Won the best children’s film at Tagore International Film Festival; Best film at Drucker International Film Festival; Best Photography Award, Best Supporting Actress Award and Most Potential Actor Award in the 5th Golden Elephant Children’s Film Week. 　 　

　 　 　 　In addition, the film has been shortlisted for 12 international film festivals, including South Africa International Film Festival and Bristol International Film Festival, and has been shown and exchanged in London, Johannesburg, South Africa, Delhi, Sweden, Moscow, Russia, Bristol, Turkey, Istanbul, Bhutan and Ukraine, making it an excellent children’s film undertaking international cultural exchanges.

　 　 　 　After the filming was completed, Golden Boy Elephant Children’s Film Week proposed to set November 20th as "International Companionship Day" every year, so as to let the heart return and love go home.　

In blade 3 of otherness, it is necessary to decide the order of playing cards according to whether there are heroes in the first round, the second round and the third round, which can give a high evaluation.

List of details of the chain Amazing strategy

1. There are heroes in the first round.

The first round: choose [hero]. The first one sends out [high TP attack], the second one sends out [low TP role], and the third one sends out [low TP tank]. After completing the instruction, take back [high TP attack].

The second round: Select [Attack Class]. The first one comes out [the first round of high TP attack], and the second one comes out [the tank]. Because there is already a bonus, it must be 100% this time. Take back [the high TP attack].

The third round: choose [non-second round partner]. First issue [non-high-TP attack], then issue an [auxiliary] when it is almost 100%, and keep the value at 99%. Finally, issue [high-TP attack recovered twice] and directly hit off the charts. AMAZING!

Round 4: Select [Partner for Round 2/Round 3]. All three recovered cards were typed to make up 100%.

Round 5: Choose [Ouroborosaurus]. First issue [non-high TP attack], then issue [auxiliary], and stick the value at 99. Finally, issue [recover three high TP attacks] to continue off the charts. AMAZING!

2. There are heroes in the second round

The first round: Select [Attack Category]. The first one sends out [high TP attack], the second one sends out [low TP role], and the third one sends out [low TP tank]. After completing the instruction, take back [high TP attack].

The second round: choose [hero]. The first one comes out [the first round of high TP attack], and the second one comes out [the tank]. Because there is already a bonus, it must be 100% this time. Take back [the high TP attack].

Round 3: Choose [non-first-round partner]. First issue [non-high-TP attack], then issue an [auxiliary] near 100, and keep the value at 99%. Finally, issue [recover two high-TP attacks] and directly hit off the charts. AMAZING!

Round 4: Select [First Round/Third Round Partner]. All three recovered cards were typed to make up 100%.

Round 5: Choose [Ouroborosaurus]. First issue [non-high TP attack], then issue [auxiliary], and stick the value at 99. Finally, issue [recover three high TP attacks] to continue off the charts. AMAZING!

3. There are heroes in the third round

The first round: Select [Attack Category]. The first one sends out [high TP attack], the second one sends out [low TP role], and the third one sends out [low TP tank]. After completing the instruction, take back [high TP attack].

The second round: choose [non-first round partner]. The first one comes out [the first round of high TP attack], and the second one comes out [the tank]. Because there is already a bonus, it must be 100% this time. Take back [the high TP attack].

The third round: choose [hero]. First issue [non-high-TP attack], then issue an [auxiliary] when it is almost 100%, and keep the value at 99%. Finally, issue [high-TP attack recovered twice] and directly hit off the charts. AMAZING!

Round 4: Select [First Round/Second Round Partner]. All three recovered cards were typed to make up 100%.

Round 5: Choose [Ouroborosaurus]. First issue [non-high TP attack], then issue [auxiliary], and stick the value at 99. Finally, issue [recover three high TP attacks] to continue off the charts. AMAZING!

4. No heroes in the first three rounds

The first round: Select [Attack Category]. The first one sends out [high TP attack], the second one sends out [low TP role], and the third one sends out [low TP tank]. After completing the instruction, take back [high TP attack].

The second round: choose [non-first round partner]. The first one comes out [the first round of high TP attack], and the second one comes out [the tank]. Because there is already a bonus, it must be 100% this time. Take back [the high TP attack].

Third Round: Choose [First Round/Second Round Partner]. First issue [non-high-TP attack], then issue an [auxiliary] when it is almost 100%, and keep the value at 99%. Finally, issue [high-TP attack recovered twice] and directly hit off the charts. AMAZING!

The fourth round: choose [Octopus] (never choose a hero! ! ! )。 Playing cards is the same as the third round, AMAZING!

Chain rule

evaluation criterion

More than 100% is COOL, more than 150% is BRAVO and more than 200% is AMAZING.

Matters needing attention in card selection

1. If you choose an attack card, you will get an extra TP when you play an attack role.

2. If you choose the hero card, you won’t consume the chain meter.

3. After completing the instructions of a pair of partners, unlock the snake, and if it is not selected, the next round will disappear.

4. The Ouroboros command will not reduce the chain meter, and all team members who have completed the action can act again.

Rules of playing cards

1. The first attack character has a high TP bonus.

2. The ending of the tank role can recycle the role with the highest TP bonus.

3. Auxiliary roles can make the value not exceed 100%.

　　[Pacific Auto Network] On the evening of February 28th, the new model (|) was officially launched. The price range of the new car was 1298-165800, and five models were launched. As a small modified model, the new car has little difference in appearance. The big change lies in the shift mode of the new car, from the previous knob shift to the original shift area, which is replaced by the wireless charging panel. In addition, the configuration of the new car has also been upgraded, such as steering wheel adjustment added to 4-way adjustment, V2L external discharge, Type-C charging interface, 32 OTA upgrades of the car, new UI interface of the car and so on.

　　In terms of design, the new car still maintains the very smart and compact figure of the old model, and the overall outline adopts a more rounded design style. The oval headlight group cooperates with the through air inlet below, which greatly improves the recognition of the new car. In addition, the brand-new rim shape also makes the car look more fashionable.

　　In terms of the tail, the design of the new car tail is round and full, and the large-size trapezoidal license plate area matches the straight edge of the trunk lid, further enriching its overall layering.

　　In terms of body size, the length, width and height of the new car are 4235/1825/1596mm and 2650mm respectively. In terms of configuration, the new car provides optional front camera, active air intake grille, probe, exterior rearview mirror with camera, skylight and rear radar probe.

　 　 　 　 The interior design of the new car, like the old model, is still covered with a lot of soft leather materials, and the interior of the contrast design is very textured. All-liquid crystal instrument+central control panel, and there is a penetrating air conditioning outlet below, which further enhances the vision of the whole interior.

　 　 　 　 The double-amplitude steering wheel specially designed for women has a thin shape, which makes it more convenient for girls to operate. At the same time, the new model has been changed to electronic gear design, which saves more space than the previous knob shift, while the original knob shift area has been changed to a large-size wireless charging panel, which is consistent with the current models of Euler such as ballet cats.

　　In terms of power, the new car continues the power of the old model, and is equipped with a model TZ153XS000 drive motor produced by United Automotive Electronics Co., Ltd., which is 105kW(143PS) and has a peak value of 210 N m. The matching battery is the tri-lithium ion battery pack produced by Honeycomb Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which can realize the NEDC cruising range of 501km. (Text: Pacific Auto Ke Kaiwen Photo: Ji Jipeng)