Academy of Social Sciences： It is expected that house prices will remain stable this year, falling back to first-and second-tier cities or bottoming out.
BEIJING, May 14 (Xinhua) Wang Yeqiang, an associate researcher at the China Academy of Social Sciences, said today that overall, 2018 will be the low point of this round of real estate market, and the overall real estate market will show a downward trend. Affected by the decline in sales, it is expected that the real estate market price will maintain a steady decline in 2018. First-tier hotspots and second-tier cities may take the lead in bottoming out, while third-and fourth-tier cities still maintain a certain degree of heat. It is expected that there may be a big correction in the third-and fourth-tier cities in the second half of 2018.
Data Map: Real estate development projects.
China Academy of Social Sciences held the 2018 China Real Estate Summit Forum and the "Blue Book of Real Estate" conference on the morning of May 14th. Associate researcher Wang Yeqiang, executive editor of the book, introduced the relevant situation.
Wang Yeqiang looks forward to the rental and sale of real estate market in 2018. He said that from different markets, the change of land price in 2018 will be based on a moderate increase, and the price mechanism of the real estate market will be accelerated, while the task of first-line risk prevention and control is still arduous, and changes in third-and fourth-tier cities must be paid attention to. At the same time, the third and fourth lines are mainly characterized by structural contradictions, which should be based on stability. At the same time, we should pay close attention to the market dynamics and strictly prevent and control the price signals that may appear in a few cities when investment demand disturbs the market.
The establishment of supply systems and modes suitable for emerging industries and new formats will help the smooth operation of the industrial land market, and the market demand and land price of industrial land will be affected by the development of emerging industries. Actively exploring the supply systems and modes of emerging industrial land will help the smooth operation of the industrial land market.
(II) From the perspective of the personal housing credit market, it is predicted that the regulation policy of the real estate market will remain stable in 2018, and the urban policies with overheated momentum will be tightened. On the whole, the real estate market will enter an adjustment period after a sharp rise in the past few years, and the growth of personal housing loan business will also slow down. At the same time, the loan interest rate will continue to rise under the impetus of rising marketization costs. From the perspective of regulatory policies, it should be the trend of maintaining overall stability.
In the short term, in order to achieve the expected effect of stabilizing the market, the relevant short-term restrictive policies will not be relaxed and withdrawn. In the long term, it is necessary to further improve policies such as land supply, simultaneous rental and sales, and real estate regulation and control, and gradually replace short-term regulatory policies such as restricting purchases and loans. From the perspective of the growth rate of personal loans, the growth rate will continue to slow down. Due to the continuous decline in the sales area at the demand level and the tightening of the superimposed loan restriction policy, the overall demand for personal housing loans will shrink. From the perspective of supply, the increment and structure of personal housing loans will be subject to unified supervision, and the demand for corporate credit will obviously pick up, which will further affect the supply of mortgage funds.
At the same time, there is still room for further increase in the interest rate of personal housing credit. Some foreign economies are tightening the provision policy, including the business of raising interest rates and shrinking the table in the United States, which also has a certain impact on our national monetary policy. At the same time, the credit demand of the enterprise sector will pick up, and the tight credit scale will be maintained, which may promote the personal housing loan to continue to rise.
(3) Investment and financing are mainly affected. One is the major changes in the real estate market. For example, land auctions introduce mechanisms such as self-sustaining, competitive matching and lottery auction. Second, restrictions on purchases, loans, sales and business in the real estate market have become the mainstream regulation methods in large and medium-sized cities. Third, there is a large supply of shared property rights and rental housing. Judging from the trend of real estate investment, the investment keeps moderate downward trend, and the investment structure may be further adjusted. It is expected that the real estate investment will enter the downward channel in 2018, and the decline may be accelerated in the future from the moderate downward trend, and the investment structure is facing major adjustment. In the financing business, it is the primary task to be stable and tight, and to prevent risks.
(4) From the perspective of the residential market, one is that the residential sales area has further decreased. As the amount of shantytown renovation in 2018 will be less than that in 2017, it means that the resettlement of shed reform has a great impact on housing sales, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities, and this positive pulling effect will gradually decline. Second, the growth rate of housing development investment has declined, and it is expected that the growth rate of development investment will also decline in 2018. Considering the continuous increase of newly started area and the rapid increase of land price in the past two years, it is estimated that the growth rate of development investment will remain at around 5% throughout the year. The housing price is stable and declining. From the perspective of the real estate boom cycle, a series of indicators in the real estate market show that the market has entered a stage of downturn, and the market has an internal driving force for downward adjustment. It is expected that the housing market will also show the characteristics of periodic downward adjustment in 2018, and the housing price is likely to be stable and declining.
(V) Overall judgment, our overall judgment on China real estate in 2018 shows that 2018 will be the low point of this round of real estate market, and the overall real estate market will show a downward trend. In the supply-side first-line and hot-spot second-tier cities, in order to alleviate the inventory crisis, the land supply is expected to increase further, but it is difficult to relax the price limit policy, the supply in hot cities will continue to be tight, the policy base for real estate regulation and control on the demand side will not change, and the tightening of bank credit will also significantly increase the cost of buying houses, so the transaction scale will also be limited to some extent, and the sales area of commercial housing will be adjusted back due to the dual effects of regulatory policies and monetary environment. Shrinking sales and blocked financing channels will put financial pressure on housing enterprises and affect their willingness to start work to a certain extent, and the growth rate of new construction will continue to run at a low level.
Wang Yeqiang said that because the property market regulation policy is not relaxed in 2018, unfavorable factors at all levels of demand policy still exist, and corporate financing is blocked, and residents’ deleveraging development loans are tightened, which will have a negative impact on the growth rate of development investment in 2018. It is expected that the development investment in 2018 will remain at a low level, and there may be a slight rebound in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, we think it should continue to maintain a legitimate downward trend, and it is difficult to have a strong performance throughout the year. Due to the decline in sales, it is expected that the development investment in 2018 will continue to
From the perspective of different cities, because the real estate control policy is not relaxed, first-tier hotspots and second-tier cities may take the lead in bottoming out. The adjustment of third-and fourth-tier cities obviously lags behind that of first-tier cities. Due to the relatively loose current policies, the spillover of demand and the support of shed reform policies and monetization policies, third-and fourth-tier cities still maintain a certain degree of enthusiasm.
With the gradual withdrawal of the destocking stimulus policy and the tightening regulation, it is expected that there may be a big correction in the third-and fourth-tier cities in the second half of 2018.
Wang Yeqiang said that we should have the following four trends in the real estate market in 2018. First, the relationship between supply and demand may be fundamentally reversed in 2018. In addition to the direct demand for housing, at the same time, due to the central control policy of staying and not speculating, it will have a greater impact on market expectations. At the same time, the toughness of development investment will increase significantly, because the start of sales by real estate enterprises means a loss, so real estate enterprises may deliberately lengthen the development cycle. At the same time, the capital level will affect the willingness of developers to take land, and the residential price index will maintain a decline throughout the year.